Farm Futures (3/8/09)

So I’ve decided that this is the daily feature I’m going to roll with for now. Old habits die hard. Under the assumption that some of you aren’t terribly familiar with the young men in the Rangers powerhouse farm system, I’ll pick out one or two minor leaguers who appeared in the previous day’s Rangers’ Cactus League game and give you the 411.

Today, we’ll take a hard look at center fielder Julio Borbon (pictured) who was one of the few minor leaguers to see action in yesterday’s crispy (2 hours, 3 minutes?) 2-1 Rangers win over the Pale Hose.

Borbon didn’t get a hit in his lone at-bat yesterday, but he did account for three outs in just three innings of action and once again wowed onlookers with his coverage of the outfield.

Before you even get to his physical ability — which is considerable — Borbon brings a lot of value to the table.

Borbon, who turned 23 two weeks ago, was the third of the Rangers’ five first-round picks (#35 overall) in their banner draft of 2007. Though he grew up in the Dominican Republic, Borbon was born in Hattiesburg, Mississippi while his father taught at Mississippi State, where he earned his Ph.D. After graduating from high school in the DR, Borbon attended the University of Tennessee where he was a star on the field and in the classroom (he was Tenessee’s nominee for SEC Scholar-Athlete of the Year in 2006).

I mention all of this because Borbon is an important and unique player in a Rangers system that is increasingly depending on Dominican and Venezeulan players. He’s a bright young man. Twice last year, sitting down with the scouts behind the plate at Frisco games, I’ve heard one turn to another after watching Borbon do something and say something along the lines of “smart kid.”

Borbon is also a poised, natural leader with the ability to bridge the divide between groups of young men — the Latin American imports and the American-born players — who often segregate themselves within a ballclub. Creating a unified organization and a strong sense of team is an important part of the Rangers organizational plan, and a guy like Borbon is an extremely valuable asset in fostering that cohesiveness.

Borbon runs exceedingly well (6.26 in the 60) and bunts well enough that he can and does use that weapon to get on base. One of the reasons that the Rangers promoted him out of Bakersfield so quickly last summer is that the cozy dimensions of Bakersfield’s “Historic” Sam Lynn Ballpark were too small for Borbon to get any practice going back on balls. His jumps are so quick and his closing speed is so enormous that he found himself lining up a dozen yards or so behind second base just so he could get the feel of going back on a ball. His arm is below average, but because his speed and reactions prevent many balls from getting through the outfield gaps, that deficiency is mitigated significantly.

At a solid 6’1″, 195 lb., he’s not merely a whispy speedster and the Rangers think he’ll have decent gap power with the ability to hit 12-15 dingers a year.

Lot’s to like. And when you see Borbon, you see all of the above. Which is why those who have seen Borbon play like him a lot more than those who haven’t. Because there are items in his statistical profile that have to worry you.

Borbon does not walk much, though he showed signs of improved plate discipline in the Arizona Fall League. He doesn’t strike out much either, but he just does not get out of the batter’s box without making contact and that means he’s hacking at bad pitches too often.

When you look at Major Leaguers with BB/PA and BB/K ratios like Borbon’s, you find some good players, but most are hacking power hitters like Jeff Kent and Ryan Braun. More often, you find weak middle-infield hackers like Yuni Betancourt and Cristian Guzman. You don’t project Borbon as either a Braun or a Guzman. He’s got good pop, but not a ton, and he’s not a weak hacker. In watching Borbon, I never got the sense that he lacked plate discipline in spite of the fact that his walk rates were low. He doesn’t swing at anything and he doesn’t get fooled very often. He’s simply very aggressive in everything he does and doesn’t let a pitch he likes go by in hopes a better one will come along later in the plate appearance.

There are a few MLB players who have BB/PA (0.05) and BB/K (0.44) ratios roughly similar to Borbon’s and whose scouting reports as minor leaguers were similar to Borbon’s — speedy, toolsy outfielders who don’t draw as many walks as you might like, for example Tampa left fielder Carl Crawford and Baltimore’s highly regarded second year center fielder Adam Jones. Borbon stacks up well (arguably better) against these two very valuable players.

Borbon (@ Frisco)
BB/PA: 0.050
BB/K: 0.44
AB/K: 8.75
.337 / .380 / .459 / .839

Borbon (in Arizona Fall League)
BB/PA: 0.163
BB/K: 0.85
AB/K: 4.35
.287 / .404 / .425 / .829

Note that while Borbon’s BB/PA and BB/K radically improved in the AFL (and he was sent there with specific instructions to take more pitches and draw more walks) his strikeout ratio nearly doubled. This is an example of what I talked about yesterday with Johnny Whittleman: when a hitter goes deep in the count a bunch, the strikeouts come along with the walks.

Carl Crawford (Minors)
BB/PA: 0.054
BB/K: 0.33
AB/K: 5.56
.295 / .336 / .400 / .736

Crawford (MLB – Career)
BB/PA: 0.049
BB/K: 0.35
AB/K: 6.66
.293 / .330 / .435 / .765

Jones (Minors)
BB/PA: 0.071
BB/K: 0.35
AB/K: 4.37
.291 / .354 / .476 / .830

Jones (MLB)
BB/PA: 0.044
BB/PA: 0.19
AB/K: 3.98
.266 / .307 / .391 / .698

Borbon’s baseline numbers — batting average, OBP, slugging percentage and OPS — closely resemble Crawford’s and his contact rate is much better. And the center fielder Borbon also brings left fielder Crawford’s speed to the table while delivering excellent defense at a more important position.

As the Rangers continue to attempt to change the paradigm, shifting to a strong focus on pitching and defense, Borbon figures to become a critical piece to the new-look Rangers of the future. Possibly later this year, and certainly by opening day 2010, Borbon will move Josh Hamilton to right field.