A Projection on Michael Young’s Defensive Impact

Posted on March 9th, 2009 3:13pm by Evan Grant
Filed under Fielding, Texas Rangers

Later this week, I’ll be speaking with John Dewan, author of the Fielding Bible, which tries to measure defensive efficiency and ability. In Dewan’s first Fielding Bible, way back in 2005, he ranked Michael Young as the worst defensive shortstop in baseball. That ranking, I think, helped create the perception that Young was a below-average fielder at short. Never quite bought it. But that’s beside the point.

Just got an email from DeWan’s publicists with an excerpt from the book. Interestingly, he tries to answer the question at the top of my interview prep sheet: How much of an impact will Young have at third base. According to Dewan, he’ll be worth about four wins. Click on, my friends to find Dewan’s explanation

Rookie Elvin Andrus is taking over shortstop for Texas this year, with Omar Vizquel tutoring and backing him up, and Michael Young moving to third base. By all accounts, Andrus is a defensive whiz. But Young’s move to third base will also provide a big boost to the Rangers’ defense, because Texas third basemen cost the Rangers 26 runs last year, according to The Fielding Bible-Volume II by John Dewan, published in February by ACTA Sports.

Young cost the Rangers five runs at shortstop last year, which was actually his best year in the last three. If Andrus and Vizquel can save five to ten Defensive Runs, that will be an increase of 10 to 15 Defensive Runs Saved at shortstop. And if Young can play an average third base, that will be a gain of 26 Defensive Runs Saved at third. Altogether, this move could result in 36 to 41 Defensive Runs Saved for Texas..

Using the rule of thumb that 10 runs equals one win, that’s a possible increase of four wins on defense alone.

If you have some questions for John DeWan, now would be a good time to send them along. And I’ll hit him with them in our chat.

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9 Comments to “A Projection on Michael Young’s Defensive Impact”
  • Doug @ March 9th, 2009 at 3:55 pm

    I don’t buy it. How many more attempts do you have at SS than at 3rd. If Young cost the Rangers 26 runs in a good year at SS, he will probably cost them 20 at 3rd.

    And to count on a Rookie to save you runs is ludicrous and Omar doesn’t have the range he used to have.

    To me it’s a push.

  • Brian Thomas @ March 9th, 2009 at 4:39 pm

    Doug,

    Young cost the Rangers five runs at SS. It was the 3b who cost 26.

    And the “attempts” are factored in to the metric.

    And Vizquel’s range at 42 >> Young’s range now.

    So no, it’s not a push.

  • Alex @ March 9th, 2009 at 5:07 pm

    We’ll just have to see how Andrus plays. If he makes the same amount of errors as he did last year in the minors, then it may be a wash.

    Of course, you always hear that minor league fields are tougher to play than major league fields. So he may improve on that basis alone.

  • knockoutking @ March 9th, 2009 at 5:13 pm

    “We’ll just have to see how Andrus plays. If he makes the same amount of errors as he did last year in the minors, then it may be a wash.”

    this is foolish.

    errors are not the best way to measure defensive talent.

    andrus makes the majority of his errors, from my understanding, by getting to balls michael young cant dream of getting to and then trying to do too much and throwing it away – plays like that

    but to say that “errors” are all that matters on defense is flat out dumb.

  • Rodney @ March 9th, 2009 at 5:46 pm

    It’s all about range, buddy!

  • rangers85 @ March 9th, 2009 at 6:29 pm

    @Rodney

    No no…The 40 Rules All!

  • Gdawg @ March 9th, 2009 at 8:16 pm

    “That ranking, I think, helped create the perception that Young was a below-average fielder at short. Never quite bought it. But that’s beside the point.”
    Why oh why? You were doing so well!

  • Trebor @ March 9th, 2009 at 9:49 pm

    “That ranking, I think, helped publicize the fact that Young was a below-average fielder at short.”

    Fixed that for ya.

  • Corky @ March 9th, 2009 at 11:19 pm

    Shocking that Evan disagrees with something negative about his all-time fantasy lover.