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Farm Futures (3/10/09)

If the Rangers break camp with outfielders Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Marlon Byrd, David Murphy and Frank Catalanotto on the roster — as expected — the starting outfield for Triple-A Oklahoma is probably going to be Brandon Boggs, Julio Borbon and Greg Golson (pictured).

A digression: If there is an outfield anywhere — or has ever been one — with three better defenders with greater range, I’ve never heard of it. Both Golson and Borbon possess top-of-the-scouting-chart speed and Boggs is regarded as the fifth best left fielder in the majors by the creator of the fielding bible, John Dewan, whom Evan will interview this week. Oklahoma pitchers should have no problem attacking the strike zone with confidence knowing those three are patrolling the outfield behind them.

Philadelphia selected Golson in the first round of the 2004 draft out of Austin’s John B. Connally High School, as an extremely athletic but raw talent with no idea of how to hit. After five pro seasons, the book on him hasn’t changed much and over the winter he was traded to Texas for Junior Mayberry in a swap of disappointing first rounders.

It’s a small sample, but Golson seems to have found something since coming to Texas. After going 1-for-3 with a walk yesterday, Golson is hitting .438 / .471 / .450 through the first week and a half of Cactus League play.

Is there any reason to believe that Golson is actually figuring things out at the plate? Throughout his ride through the low minors, Golson posted atrocious strikeout / walk ratios, but last year at Double-A Reading, he finally showed some signs of improvement.

Golson was a .260 / .304 / .399 hitter through his first four years in the minors (at Rookie and Class-A levels), and last year he shot up to .282 / .333 / .434 while making what is often said to be the most difficult jump in the minors to Double-A. Prior to the 2008 season, Golson’s walk-to-strikeout ratio (BB/K) was 0.18 and last year it improved to 0.26 and in August of 2008, he posted a career-best BB/K ratio of 0.36 (still not very good, but moving towards something palatable).

It’s not enough to call it a trend, but this is the sort of thing you like to see in a prospect who is raw but toolsy. A player whose numbers get better against more advanced competition is a player who has the capacity to learn and adjust. And prospects who don’t have that capacity don’t have a chance.

A year ago, a scout told Baseball America’s Chris Kline the following about Golson:

“[Golson is] an 80 arm with 80 speed . . . those guys with those kind of tools . . . if he figures it out . . . wow. He could be a late bloomer. This is one of those guys that you don’t ever want to give up on despite what the numbers say. You fall in love with him. It’s hard not to. And this is a smart kid who just turned 22. If he leaves his brain in the clubhouse and just goes out there and reacts, he’s one of the best prospects in the game. I know that can be a pretty big if with some guys, but you can’t just throw this guy away.”

For those of you unfamiliar with scouting parlance, an “80 arm with 80 speed” means that Golson’s arm and speed are beyond exceptional. An 80 grade on any tool is the highest possible grade a scout can give a player. He’s also credited with having “above-average power” and has demonstrated it in games. That’s the good news. The guy has something to work with and at 23 he’s still growing as a baseball player.

One of the things that comes up again and again in scouting assessments that attempt to explain Golson’s struggles at the plate is that he “thinks too much,” “tries too hard” and “presses.” I don’t find any criticism of his attitude or effort. Generally, Golson gets great marks for his makeup.

Golson wouldn’t be the first toolsy outfielder to suddenly figure things out offensively under the tutelage of Rangers hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo (see, e.g., Gary Matthews, Jr.), but the odds of that sort of lighting in RBiA’s center field for the second time in four or five years are pretty long.

So while I’ll stop short — far short — of pegging Golson as an emerging star, I will say that given his undeniable raw ability and recent signs of improvement, he is one to keep an eye on. If he does continue to move forward as a hitter, Golson could become extremely valuable. Center fielders with similar abilities have keyed major trades for young pitching in recent years (Adam Jones for Eric Bedard and Carlos Gomez for Johan Santana).