Q & A on the Rangers’ Top 11 Prospects with Kevin Goldstein from Baseball Prospectus

Baseball Prospectus released their ranking of the top 11 prospects in the Rangers system today and their prospect guru Kevin Goldstein was kind enough to share some extended thoughts on the list and the Texas system in general with me to commemmorate the occasion.

Here is Goldstein’s list:
Five-Star Prospects
1. Neftali Feliz, RHP
2. Justin Smoak, 1B
3. Derek Holland, LHP
Four-Star Prospects
4. Michael Main, RHP
5. Engel Beltre, CF
6. Elvis Andrus, SS
Three-Star Prospects
7. Martin Perez, LHP
8. Max Ramirez, C
9. Taylor Teagarden, C
10. Neil Ramirez, RHP
11. Wilfredo Boscan, RHP

Make the jump for more of Goldstein’s thoughts on the Rangers prospects.

Q1) One’s a lefty who brings it 98, one’s a righty who brings it 101. What, in your mind, makes Feliz so vastly superior to Holland? Is there a downgrade element for you with Holland because he came out of nowhere?

Goldstein: The fact that Holland came out of nowhere plays a tiny role. I won’t deny that. Even talking to Rangers officials, they say “let’s see if he can do that all year.” The huge age difference plays a very big role and Feliz has a much better breaking ball. He has the more complete arsenal. Feliz’s slurve flashes plus at times. He’s got a ways to go. It’s a weird pitch because it’s neither a slider nor a curve and he telegraphs it too much, but it pretty effective and it’s better than Holland’s slider by a long way. With the improvement he made with his changeup after never throwing one before last year, Feliz has a chance to be anything.

Q2) Max Ramirez over Teagarden: Given how much you clearly think of Teagarden’s defensive capabilities and how little you think of Ramirez’s, put Ramirez’s bat in context. Do you think he’s among the best power hitting prospects in the game right now?

Goldstein: Max’s bat is going to play if he can’t catch. I have a lot of questions about Teagarden’s bat and if he’s going to be more than a back up. I think that Ramirez is a .300 hitter with power. He’s probably a DH, but he’s at least a solid Tier-II DH and maybe even better than that.

Q3) I know you talk to a lot of scouts from all over baseball. Which of these 11 evoked the widest range of opinion?

Goldstein: Teagarden. It goes from everyday big league catcher with power, patience and defense to some who just say he can’t hit. There’s a lot of difference of opinion of Andrus, but not as much as Teagarden. Everybody sees that Andrus is going to be an elite defensive shortstop who can handle the bat OK. The question with him is a matter of degree. With Teagarden, it’s pretty severe. Some scouts are convinced he’s never going to be anything more than a .220 hitter.

Q4) Blake Beavan: are people more concerned about his drop in velocity or the fact that he managed to succeed in spite of it while making his pro debut in a full-season league?

Goldstein: It’s not like he got killed by anybody and he would have easily made the list for just about any other team. A lot of people had a hard time believing that he threw 95-96 in high school but he had so much success at 89-90 because his location is borderline special and his movement is outstanding. The slider is ok, not great. Some of the changes DC made with his mechanics probably toned down the slider. His mechanics needed a lot of work and they really did clean them up a lot. His mechanics in high school were wince inducing. He threw across his body and had that recoil. But if his velocity comes back, he’s got a lot going for him. He’s also got a swagger that he uses the right way now.

Q5) Name the player in this system who you think could make the biggest jump this year, whether or not he’s on this year’s list.

Goldstein: I think that there are a lot of really, really good candidates for that and that’s why this system is so great. Beltre in the Cal League will be interesting – going from the worst hitting environment to the best. I think that Michael Main, in spite of moving to the Cal League, could move way up to elite status. The whole Hickory rotation. That group is special.

Q6) Do you hear anything negative about Martin Perez other than the fact that he’s smallish?

Goldstein: The thing about Perez is that he’s so polished at that age. When you think about a Latin American prospect at that age, you think of a thrower instead of a pitcher. Both Perez and Boscan are pretty rare in the respect that they are so nearly complete and have such a strong mental approach right now at such a young age. The question most people have about Perez is just how good is he going to be rather than there’s something wrong with him. I think the Johan Santana comps that people throw around are dangerous. When he has an 80 changeup, then maybe people can talk about Johan. He’s got a great fastball, and a plus-plus curve, but not much of a changeup, but he’s 17 and not many 17 year olds are even fiddling with a changeup.

Q7) Who is a reasonable MLB comp for Julio Borbon?

Goldstein: Hard to say. I like Julio, but he’s a leadoff man with leadoff skills but without a leadoff man’s mentality. Julio Borbon has tremendous plate coverage and that’s almost a negative for him. Even though he can do something with a pitch, it would probably be better for him if he’d learn to consistently work counts a little more. I know it improved in the AFL, but that’s a change of approach that has to continue.

Q8) In terms of pure tools, where does Engel Beltre rate for you among teenaged outfield prospects?

Goldstein: Up there with anybody. Anybody. Plus raw power. Plus-plus speed. A great arm. I actually think he’s a very good hitter. He has a knack for contact. I know he’s got the issues with the strikeouts and low walks, but 105 K’s in 500 at bats is a tremendous contact rate for an 18 year old in the MWL. He’s a hacker, but he’s not a hack-and-misser. He swings at stuff he shouldn’t swing at, but he still hits them and hits them hard. The other thing I love about Beltre is that he loves being a baseball player and knows who he is – he knows he’s special – but isn’t an obnoxious jerk about it and is will do anything to get better. He’s got the attitude of a star and the will to make it happen.

Q9) Jamey Newberg and I were kicking this around the other day and maybe you can help explain it: What is the significance of “makeup” to you in evaluating prospects?

Goldstein: I was talking to Jim Callis about this other day and we were kicking around #1 busts and in every one of them, there was a makeup problem that caused the disappointment. Professioinal baseball is very, very hard. And no matter how good you are, there’s a huge adjustment going from the best kid in your town or on your team to being just another guy and in a system like the Rangers that’s an issue because the competition in the system is enormous. People can look at spreadsheets and snicker at scouts all they want, but you have to know who has the skill and the desire to keep moving forward. There are reason that some guys get better as they move up and others get worse and fall out of the system and the answer for that is physical ability and mental makeup. It’s huge.