But in case Mark can’t personally respond to us here, I’ll settle for Zac.
Here’s my question and it’s pretty basic now that a playoff spot appears all but clinched following last night’s win over Phoenix: Where does this club fit into the playoff bracket. Though the Mavs currently hold the eighth seed, they are within 2.5 games of the third seed in the West. How far up the ladder can or will they climb in the seedings. With 18 games remaining, including six against teams ahead of them in the standings, there seems to be plenty of opportunity for significant movement. But I also know the Suns game last night started a stretch of 11 games in which nine are on the road. I’m figuring on a loss tonight at Portland and Sunday at Los Angeles. That certainly can’t help.
And, Zac (because I know Mark won’t answer this) do you even want to see the Mavs in the playoffs this year or would it simply be extending the misery of a disappointing season.
[My answers are in the comments. -- Z.C.]
They definitely could move up. Will they? Apart from this tricky stretch on the road, they have a tough finish to the season. And except for Denver — and Portland, to an extent — no one is really sliding that much.
Ideal world: the Mavs face off against Portland (still young and untested, and the Mavs play them well) or San Antonio. If they can get past Denver, they probably will get that Spurs match-up. I’m not saying the Mavs win that series, but it’s probably their best shot — and they are the team the Spurs do not want to face in the first round. The Mavs don’t really have anyone that can stick with Parker for seven games (or even half of one), but the Spurs don’t really have an answer for Dirk, now that Bowen is breaking down.
If they got past the Spurs, though, I still don’t think the season goes much beyond that. Their bench can’t keep up with the Lakers. Utah gives them fits no matter who is playing, and they rarely win in SLC. Chris Paul destroys them, so New Orleans is out. Houston, maybe, but that’s assuming the Rockets can get to the second round.
To your last question: yeah, if they were going to be one-and-done in the playoffs, I would prefer to miss the postseason entirely. The worst team rarely ends up with the top pick, and if you run a lottery generator, those last few spots in the standings end up with the No. 1 pick more than you’d think. Not sure where Blake Griffin would fit on the team, but would sure be willing to find out. At the very least someone would trade for his services. Pair that with some opportunity this summer — everyone is looking to shed contracts this summer, so Cuban just has to decide if he’s willing to gamble and take some on — and you have a pretty quick rebuilding process.
The Mavs won’t be favored regardless of who they play – but they match up rather well with San Antonio. If they could finish 7th and play the Spurs in the 1st round – you never know.
Every year – one team surprises once they enter the tournament.
id rather make it and have a chance at upsetting someone ala the warriors two years ago than miss and have a 0.3 percent chance at griffin, doesnt really matter at this point as it looks like they are gunna make it
I’m with Zac and Adam. I agree on Zac’s analysis, but I don’t think we’re served not being in the playoffs. And we have the classic makeup of a team that can do some unexpected damage in the playoffs: veteran stars, a few young guys who can make their names with one great playoff run (I’m looking at you, Mr. Hollins), and a team with low expectations. That said, yes, if they go against New Orleans, they will lose in 5. (That’s because Chris Paul is the most underrated superstar in recent memory, a man the astute, sober basketball analyst John Hollinger recently compared to Magic Freaking Johnson … no shame in losing to that.)
I changed my mind. Don’t care if they’re one and done. Eric’s right.
I could see us rising as high as the 6th in the West and facing Houston in the 1st round. I think that gives us a better chance to get to the 2nd round than playing S.A. But the teams current streak of good play is going to have to continue for them to really make any noise in the playoffs. Not impossible, but highly unlikely. (But you never know, so we’ll all keep watching.)
Finishing schedule is too tough to move up past 7, and that’s without even considering the Mavs desire to throw a game away here and there. Agree that they have a chance to knock off the Spurs, but if they stay in 8, I’d rather miss the playoffs so I can spend my games 3 and 4 ticket money on something more fun than watching them get killed by the Lakers.
That was a pretty tough loss last night against Portland, Evan.
The Mavs’ achilles heel is Jason Kidd’s inability to stay in front of little, fast point guards. If Kidd has to guard Chris Paul, Deron Williams, or Tony Parker in a 7-game series, they’re in serious trouble.
Otherwise, I’d give them a fighting chance against just about anybody. Sunday’s game against LAL will be telling. I’m not expecting much, but the Lakers will have their hands full if they have to play against the team that showed up last night against Portland.
As a UK-based Lakers fan, I found your blog on google and read a few of your other Lakers posts. I just added you to my Google News Reader. Keep up the good work. Look forward to reading more from you in the future.