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The 200: Only Number that Matters

SURPRISE, Ariz. - Hopefully, we’ll spend a lot of quality time together this year. You’ll ask me questions. I’ll offer intricate analytical answers. We’ll touch on topics from Michael Young’s move to third to Justin Smoak’s ETA in the majors. We’ll talk about the Latin American program and what free agents might be available this winter.

We’ll do it all in the name of trying to figure out what it will take to make the Rangers a winning team. And, of course, arguing baseball. It beats arguing politics.

But – and let’s just keep this our little secret – we’ll be wasting our time.

If you want to boil down the Rangers’ chances this year, or in 2010 or 2020, for that matter, it comes down to one thing and one thing only.

It comes down to how many innings the starting rotation can soak up. It really is that simple.

Forget about Young’s move. Forget about Elvis Andrus’ arrival. Don’t worry whether Josh Hamilton can duplicate (or improve) last year’s offensive awesomeness. Spend only scant moments on what Frank Francisco will do as the closer (an unreliable closer can ruin even the best pitching staffs).

Focus on this: 200 innings.

ERA, strikeouts, walks, pitches-thrown, WHIP (Walks-and-hits per inning) may all be good for your fantasy team, but they matter not a wit where the Rangers are concerned. Pitching success in Arlington is about endurance. Here is how it works. Get through 200 innings and it means you’ve averaged more than six innings per start (for a 33-start season). It means the batters in the lineup won’t be pressing from the start of the game to score 10 runs quickly. It means the bullpen will be in order when it comes time for you to leave.

“It’s a big stat in Texas,” said general manager Jon Daniels, whose first-glance statistical reference has always been strikeout-to-walk ratio. “It’s probably the most important [stat] for these pitchers. You don’t end up over-exposing pieces of the bullpen.”

For a Rangers pitcher, reaching 200 innings means with almost absolutely certainty that he will win more games than he loses. Since 1994, a Rangers pitcher has reached at least 200 innings 18 times; he finished at .500 or above 17 times. That’s a 94 percent rate of finishing at .500 or better. The rest of the AL starters who reached 200 innings finished at .500 or better just 78 percent of the time.

This all leads to just one teensy problem: How many of these guys can or will reach 200 innings?

Kevin Millwood (five times) and Vicente Padilla (three such seasons) certainly have the credentials to, but neither has come close in the last two years in Texas. Both are in contract years. Millwood needs 180 innings for his 2010 option with the Rangers to kick in and the Rangers hold a team option on Padilla that would only be exercised if he proves durable and effective.

The last time they faced contract years, Millwood led the AL in ERA and Padilla set a career high in wins (while pitching for the Rangers and amassing exactly 200 innings). They have the motivation. The question is whether they still have the durability.

None of the three guys behind them – Matt Harrison, Scott Feldman and Brandon McCarthy – have 200 innings as a starter for their career.

Harrison (167.2 innings) and Feldman (164 innings) both had professional highs in innings pitched last year. Both split time between the majors and minors (minor league innings are not nearly as stressful as major league innings) and both would have to make significant jumps to get to 200 innings. Feldman nearly doubled his previous professional high last year while Harrison did it a year after coming off a shoulder issue.

McCarthy’s professional high of 186 came in 2005 in a season split between the majors and minors as well. Over the last two seasons with the Rangers, he’s pitched just 121 innings due to injuries.

It might seem a bit of stretch to think any of them could make the leap this year, but Daniels said he’s not against pushing the pitchers farther than they have ever been.

“A lot will depend on how guys pile up the innings, but I would have no concerns about letting our young guys extend their innings counts this year,” he said. “Hopefully, we don’t have an issue about guys not getting to 200 innings this year. I’m not expecting it from one guy; I think we should have four or five at it or close to it.”

And if those expectations are met, the Rangers will be in contention late in the season. It’s that simple.