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Rangers Position Previews: The Outfield

Because I slacked off on the “Position Previews” series, Our Leader has sentenced me to a long weekend in a dull retirement community with nothing but chain restaurants and a city code that mandates there be at least one drug store at every intersection. I turn myself in on the 20th and will be released on the 24th. Perhaps I can bunk in Chuck’s tent.

Until then, I need to catch up. We’ve covered the starters and the catchers already, so we still need to address the bullpen, the infield and the outfield which we’ll do right now.

After the jump, we’ll take a look at a strange bunch that could just as easily be one of the best offensive outfields in the American League, or one of the worst.

1) Josh Hamilton — CF / RF

I’ll try not to bore you with yet another lengthy rendition of Hamilton’s many strengths. Scouts thought he was the best amateur prospect they’d seen since Alex Rodriguez. He gets drafted number one overall, paid a ton of money, gets hurt in the minors, goes off the deep end…yada, yada, yada…he comes back, reharnesses his enormous physical gifts, and becomes one of the most feared hitters in baseball.

Let’s set aside his colorful personal story and the freak show he put on at Yankee Stadium last July. Time to move on.

Now on to the stuff nobody really seems to acknowledge. Hamilton is a defensive liability in center field (and I’d say this even if John Dewan didn’t agree). He is turrible, turrible at going back on balls and he lacks the quickness to cut of the gaps which drives RBiA down from the eighth to the ninth circle of hell for pitchers. His major asset — a cannon of an arm — would play better in right. One of the many reasons I would prefer Marlon Byrd over David Murphy as a regular starter is that it would make the Rangers much better defensively by moving Hamilton to a corner which would also help preserve his body.

The player projection system PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus foresees a fairly significant dropoff in offensive production from Hamilton this year — .282 / .350 / .479, down from .304 / .371 / .530 in 2008. I don’t think that will happen. At age 28 and entering his third big league season, I would expect Hamilton to be squarely in his prime for another three or four years, but given the way he abused his body for so many years, his shelf life might not reach much past age 34.

2) Nelson Cruz — RF / LF / CF

And here is the official 2009 Rorschach test for Rangers fans: Are you buying Nelson Cruz? For three years, Nelson Cruz put up ungodly numbers in Triple-A only to completely fall apart against big league pitchers…until last year.

The reason Cruz was finally able to make the transition from the minors to the majors is abundantly clear to statheads: He walked twice as often as he ever had before. A guy who had posted BB/K ratios of about 0.35 year after year suddenly bumped it up to 0.64 with Oklahoma last year, carried that to Texas in September (0.61) and more-or-less maintained the improved approach over the winter (0.50). Looking at it a bit differently, Cruz had always walked about 6% of the time and struck out about 25% (or more) of the time, no matter where he played (even when he was mashing at Triple-A). Last year, however he walked more than 12% of the time (while still striking out about 24% of the time) at both Oklahoma and in his 131 at-bats with the Rangers.

But if you are one of those people who aren’t buying Cruz in spite of the fairly radical change to his approach last year, I don’t blame you. It’s not very often thata hitter suddenly figures things out at age 28.

Cruz is immune to lefty / righty splits and is a plus defender in right. In terms of pure physical ability, Cruz is nearly in Hamilton’s league. He’s got light-tower power and one of the best outfield guns in baseball. He runs reasonably well and might even cover outfield ground a bit better than Hamilton.

You can pencil in those two guys to play most of the time — Hamilton in center and Cruz in right. Left field and the backup spots are trickier.

3) Marlon Byrd — LF / CF / RF & 3A) David Murphy LF / RF / CF

The Rangers seem to prefer Murphy as the regular starter in left. Based on feedback I’ve gotten over the past few months, most fans seem to love Murphy. He’s OK, but this talk I keep hearing about how he’s the next Rusty Greer is over the top. Murphy isn’t going to be a perennial .400 OBP guy like his Royal Ranger Redness was. Put aside the unjustified comps and the popularity contest. Here are the numbers:

Byrd hit .298 / .380 / .462 / .842
Murphy hit .275 / .321 / .465 / .787

Against LHP, Byrd hit .277 / .359 / .482 / .841
Against LHP, Murphy hit .258 / .290 / .379 / .669

Against RHP, Byrd hit .308 / .391 / .451 / .843
Against RHP, Murphy hit .282 / .333 / .502 / .835

On the road, Marlon hit .297 / .362 / .411 / .772
On the road, Murph hit .257 / .308 / .444 / .752

With runners in scoring position, Byrd hit: .241 / .362 / .474 / .836
With runners in scoring position, Murphy: .291 / .338 / .496 / .834

Byrd’s VORP was 26.6
Murphy’s VORP was 13.0

As a LF, Byrd’s range factor was 2.33
As a LF, Murphy’s range factor was 1.98

As a CF, both had a range factor of 3.18
As a RF, both had a range factor of 2.39

And then there’s Murphy Month-by-Month:

April: .277 / .342 / .465 / .807
May: .280 / .304 / .449 / .753

June: .239 / .265 / .435 / .700
July: .238 / .315 / .438 / .753

By these numbers, it appears that pitchers made better adjustments to Murphy than he did to them. He might move forward this season as a second-year guy, but there are a lot of signs here that Murphy is a limited player whose weaknesses ended up getting exposed.

Another interesting point is that Byrd’s averages (.298 / .380 / .462 / .842) are right with Bobby Abreu (.296 / .371 / .471 / .843) and Raul Ibanez (.293 / .358 / .479 / .837). If either of those guys were on this roster, there wouldn’t be any debate about whether they should start over Murphy.

5) Frank Catalanotto — LF

It’s not like Cat sucks. He can still hit for average and work pitchers. He just can’t do anything else and he’s on the payroll for $4 million with a $2 million buyout of his 2010 option. He’ll be a pinch hitter this year unless (until?) Hank Blalock goes on the DL.

6) Brandon Boggs — LF / RF / CF

I’ve been a Brandon Boggs cheerleader for years now. If I’m a GM, he’s on my team. Boggs is the best defensive outfielder on the roster. He’s versatile. He can run well enough and react quickly enough to hold down center. He’s got enough arm for right. He’s an intelligent player. He’s tough. He works pitchers hard (only one Ranger – Jarrod Saltalamacchia – saw more than the 4.34 pitches per plate appearance that Boggs saw last year).

The switch-hitting Boggs, a 2004 fifth rounder out of Georgia Tech, is the rare player whose numbers have improved each time he has been promoted. After beginning his career with a .235 / .373 / .369 line in 149 at-bats with Spokane in the short-season Northwest League the summer after he was drafted, Boggs moved on to low-A Clinton in 2005 where he hit .246 / .353/ .437 before posting a .261 / .352 / .444 line at high-A Bakersfield in 2006. Making what many have called the most difficult step on the minor league ladder, Boggs posted his best core numbers ever with double-A Frisco in 2007: .266 / .385 / .508 / .893 (the Texas League’s fourth best OPS). In limited action at OKC last summer, he hit a career-best .309 / .368 / .456.

In every way, Boggs just keeps getting better and better. Example: though the switch-hitter always been stronger batting from the right side against southpaws, check out his progression against right-handed pitchers since turning pro:

.239 / .330 / .378 / .708 with Class-A Clinton back in 2005;
.240 / .329 / .380 / .709 with Advanced-A Bakersfield in 2006;
.236 / .337 / .472 / .810 with Bakersfield in 2007
.247 / .375 / .448 / .823 with Frisco in 2007;
.360 / .431 / .520 / .951 with Oklahoma in 2008.

I find it difficult to bet against guys like Boggs who erase weaknesses as the competition gets tougher. It’s difficult to gauge his rookie numbers with the Rangers last summer because his playing time was so irregular. Given his proven ability to learn and adjust and improve, it’s hard to say he won’t continue to get better the more he plays.

This might be the most underrated player on the 40-man roster. You win with guys like Brandon Boggs on your team. And I expect that Oklahoma will win a lot of games with him because it’s highly unlikely that he’ll break camp with Texas unless Marlon Byrd is traded.

7) Julio Borbon — CF

I’ve recently covered this ground. I believe that Borbon will be the starting CF for the Rangers on opening day in 2010. Until then, he’ll join Boggs and Greg Golson in the Oklahoma outfield where they’ll make pitchers look much better than they really are.

8 ) Greg Golson — CF / RF

I wrote about Golson earlier this week. While his skill set might make him an ideal 5th outfielder right now, he needs a lot of at-bats to see if he can continue what appears to be some growth as a hitter. He’ll get them at Triple-A Oklahoma.

9) Andruw Jones — CF

You want to know why I don’t believe that Jones will make the 25-man roster? Armando Galarraga. Last year, the Rangers had to try and slide somebody through waivers to make room for a long-shot rehab project (Jason Jennings) and got burned when the Tigers pounced on Mando. I hope Jon Daniels learned his lesson.