D

Why Constructing The Bullpen Is The Top Story Of Spring

We plan to be back later with our top 10 stories (and a few non-stories) of Spring Training, but thought we’d at least get the day started with a little talk about the No. 1 issue in camp: The bullpen.

To bring you up to date: RHP Frank Francisco is the closer and nothing has changed about that. LHPs C.J Wilson and Eddie Guardado are expected to be the primary setup men, though both have dealt with some spring training pains that make things a little less certain. Wilson’s had a bruised hand and a split callus that have limited him to 1.1 innings since March 1; he’s supposed to return to the mound today, so that will be something of a focus for this afternoon’s game with Colorado. Guardado has dealt with some shoulder stiffness, but he’s dealt with shoulder issues for the last five years and unless his arm becomes physically unattached, he will be ready for the start of the season.

RHP Warner Madrigal has all but clinched a job, though with more than two weeks left until the season begins, you can never be absolutely certain. The rest is a melange of occasional impressive outings (RHP Willie Eyre), decent track records trying to bounce back from injury (RHPs Brendan Donnelly and Derrick Turnbow) and, well, others.

Up to date? Good.

Now on to why its so important the Rangers make the absolute best possible decisions regarding the makeup of the middle of the bullpen. The Bill James Gold Mine is 271 pages of esoteric statistical studies, strange essays and what not. But buried in all that pyrite is an occasional real nugget of gold. To me, the gem in the Rangers chapter of the book is a study James did of Rangers’ line scores.

James notes the Rangers jumped out to the most first inning leads in all of baseball. The Rangers led at the end of the first 52 times, trailed 41 and were tied on 69 occasions. That’s all great, but to me, where things get really interesting is as the games progress. The Rangers led more games than they trailed by a significant margin in each of the first six innings. They led those games by an average of 8.6 times more often than they trailed. But get to the seventh inning – the point where middle relief becomes absolutely essential – and things change dramatically. At the end of the seventh, the Rangers trailed 72 times (they had not trailed more than 66 times at the end of any of the first six innings). At the end of the eighth, they led 69 times and trailed 79 times. And of course, ultimately, at the end of games, they led 79 times and trailed 83.

It’s a pretty stark reminder that for all the fretting about the starting rotation, the Rangers were a losing team because the middle of the bullpen, overexposed and ultimately overused, couldn’t protect leads. Make no mistake, the rotation’s performance and the bullpen’s effectiveness go hand-in-hand. But the Rangers were in position to win games late last year and the bullpen couldn’t hold those leads. If the Rangers intend to improve upon last year’s win total, the bullpen must be deeper and more reliable.