
Yesterday, my brand new Sports Illustrated arrived, and I turned quickly to the feature on Steven Strasburg. Fascinating stuff.
I know I should leave MLB Draft stuff to Mr. Hindman and Mr. Grant and pretty much anyone else on the blog. I certainly don’t know my college/high school baseball players, but I am willing to say this guy is pretty good.
102 mph?
$50 million?
Consensus #1 pick?
How would you like to see him with your own eyeballs on Friday night?
Apparently he will be in Fort Worth on Friday night:
Strasburg’s next start will likely come this Friday, when SDSU leaves California for the first time this year and takes on TCU at 6:30 p.m. CT in Forth Worth, Texas.
I’m not going to lie. I wish I could make it. I can’t. But, you should. This kid is special.
Peter Gammons throws out the bold ideas of super-agent Scott Boras …
…some club officials think that if Washington takes San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg with the first overall pick, Boras will ask for Daisuke Matsuzaka money (six years, approximately $50 million) or take him to Japan for a year, a threat that may scare Stan Kasten into selecting a lesser prospect.
Shocking, but not surprising. If there is one thing Scott Boras can do, it is claim boldly.
Since Washington has the top pick, the story is weighing heavily there. Here is the Washington Post summarizing things on their Nationals Blog:
Reading between the lines of the Gammons note, Boras appears to be preparing to use Strasburg, the exceptionally talented San Diego State right-hander, as a way of exploding the “slotting” system with which MLB has tried — mostly unsuccessfully — to reign in signing bonuses for draftees. It also appears Boras will be attempting to equate Strasburg not with previous No. 1 overall picks (Mark Prior holds the record for the biggest contract ever awarded a top pick, $10.5 million in 2001), but Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Japanese import (and Boras client) who signed a six-year, $52 million contract with the Boston Red Sox before the 2007 season. Such a stance would almost certainly invite MLB’s involvement in the process and force a complete overhaul of the slotting system.
Boras’s argument would be that, in terms of ability and immediate impact, Strasburg has more in common with Matsuzaka than, say, David Price, who was the last pitcher to be picked No. 1 overall (he got $8.8 million from Tampa Bay in 2007). Would the argument be valid? Right now, Strasburg is making a complete mockery of the college game, striking out an average of 19.4 batters per nine innings this season. His radar gun readings are consistently over 100 mph. ESPN’s Buster Olney has quoted an unnamed scout as saying Strasburg, right now, would be as good a pitcher as A.J. Burnett — who (dare we mention?) signed an $82.5 million contract with the Yankees this winter.
What makes this potential negotiation so fascinating is the fact Boras would have most, if not all, of the leverage — thanks in part to the Nationals’ failure to sign their top draft pick from last June, pitcher Aaron Crow. There would be a fan revolt in Washington if the Nationals fail again — particularly when the prize is a once-in-a-lifetime talent such as Strasburg. On the other hand, the Nationals would little negotiating leverage beyond the threat of walking away from the table and forcing Strasburg to play a year in the independent leagues (or, as Gammons mentions, in Japan).
The Nationals have a new ballpark, and when building it had the understated attitude that those new revenue streams would allow them to field a more competitive team. Well, another winter has passed and while Adam Dunn is ok, that is not the payoff of a pre-stadium-building promise to their fans.
Then in 2008, they did not get their #1 pick signed. And now this?
How good is he? Consider some of these numbers …
Strasburg received the Louisville Slugger National Player of the Week award from Collegiate Baseball Magazine for the fourth consecutive week. This marks the seventh time in two years he has received the award.
The San Diego native has received that recognition more times than any other player in his career, beating out USC’s Mark Prior, who was recognized five times.
Strasburg is widely projected as the No. 1 overall pick in the next Major League Baseball draft and has been called “the greatest prospect ever” from numerous scouts, including ESPN’s Buster Onley.
Through his first five starts in 2009, the right-hander has amassed a 4-0 record with a 1.57 earned run average. He has struck out 74 batters over 34.1 innings, averaging a stunning 19.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The NCAA record for strikeouts per nine innings in an entire season is 16.8.
If you are curious, Here is the top of the first round for the June draft ..
First-Round Picks
1. Nationals
2. Mariners
3. Padres
4. Pirates
5. Orioles
6. Giants
7. Braves
8. Reds
9. Tigers
10. Nationals (for failure to sign 2008 first-rounder Aaron Crow)
11. Rockies
12. Royals
13. Athletics
14. Rangers
15. Indians
Although this video is over-produced, here Strasburg fans 23 Utah Utes:
Anyway, thought you might like to take that drive over and see him in person.
Bob, are you feeling any after effects from the shalacking at the hands of the Lake Highlands Thunder?
I am. I feel great shame. 1990 is a long, long time ago.
Strasburg is not beating up a league the equivalent of Japan’s pro circuit. Even good college ball is more like low A ball, or short season A ball in the minor leagues here, so comparing him with Matsuzaka’s consistent excellence in Japan is just Boras’ usual hyperbole, and then some.
I’d offer him $12-15M, a major league contract, and a huge bonus if he wins rookie of the year or the Cy Young award. I’d also consider offering a bonus that decreases in time the longer he waits to sign. Sign now, son, and maybe be in the major leagues this year instead of holding out and wasting time.
Is this guy not destined to blow his arm out?
Bob -
Here’s my favorite action photo of you
http://www.dallasobserver.com/slideshow/view/331068/2
Fascinating. Going to have to miss that wedding I have scheduled tomorrow night to see this guy
waaaaaaaaaaaaaaa waaaaaaaaaaaaaaa I’m Deeeeeeeeeeeerrrrreeeeeeeeeeeeekkkkk, and I can sing hiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiggggggggggggghhhhhhhh
c’mon, you’re the oldest
I have been planning on going to this for weeks…this is why Baseball needs to allow trades for the 1st round of their draft.
What would/should the Rangers trade for the #1 pick in June if it was allowed?
I would propose: Max Ramirez, One of the Hickory Rotation, and our first rounder this year for Strasburg.
He would instantly be the best Rangers FA Pitcher signing ever (if we could get past Boras in negotiations)
Has anyone else noticed how controlled his delivery is? He ends up ready to field his position. Who knows maybe he’ll eventually decide pitching in a normal park isn’t challenging enough and will demand a trade to Texas.
All Aboard,
That wouldn’t even come close to getting the rights to Strasburg.
This is from the 2/23 edition of “Ask BA.”
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2009/267697.html
If you ran the Nationals and teams could trade their draft choices, what would you want for the No. 1 pick in the 2009 draft?
Glenn Hastedt
Harrisonburg, Va.
From a talent standpoint, trading the No. 1 overall pick would be a tough sell. San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg is the prize of this year’s draft, and the consensus among college scouts is that he’s the best righthanded pitching prospect this decade and should reach the major leagues within a year of signing. Some scouts would take him over Rays lefthander David Price, who’s baseball’s best pitching prospect.
(For details of Strasburg’s spectacular season-opening start, check out Dave Perkin’s first-hand account.)
If I were to deal the rights to Strasburg, I definitely wouldn’t give up the No. 1 pick for a package of lesser talents, because that wouldn’t make my team better. You win by obtaining superstars and stars and surrounding them with a solid supporting cast. The Nationals have so many holes that they need Strasburg more than a few bodies that might make their woeful big league team look better right now.
For the sake of argument, let’s take a look at the Rangers, who have the best farm system in baseball, and are deep at certain positions. They could afford to give up first baseman Chris Davis (with Justin Smoak on the way) and catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (with Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez on hand), and maybe they’d be willing to part with the 14th overall pick to get Strasburg. But it’s unlikely Texas would add righthander Neftali Feliz to that package, and I’d want Feliz. (And even then, it’s not that hard to find a first baseman and for all his promise, Saltalamacchia has hit .261/.327/.399 and thrown out 18 percent of basestealers in the majors.) The Rangers probably wouldn’t give up lefty Derek Holland or shortstop Elvis Andrus either.
I’m not going to call any player untouchable, because it’s always possible for the other side to make a ridiculous offer for much more than he’s worth. But if I were running the Nationals, I’d want a comparable talent, and I don’t see how that’s going to happen. I think Price and Orioles catcher Matt Wieters are the top two prospects in baseball, but Tampa Bay and Baltimore wouldn’t make them available. No. 3 on my prospect list is Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez, and I wouldn’t give up Strasburg for him.
I’d be happy to take a young big leaguer who’s a budding superstar, but no club would be willing to give up an Evan Longoria or Justin Upton. This approach would be a tough way to make a deal, because Strasburg hasn’t accomplished anything in the majors yet and it wouldn’t make sense to swap his ceiling and settle for less.
Because it would be too difficult to get a fair return for Strasburg’s potential upside, the only real benefit from trading him would be saving on the eight-figure major league contract it likely will cost to sign him. But it he’s the once-in-a-decade talent scouts believe he is, he’ll be worth the investment.
Great article Kevin – I guess I was factoring in the likely rediculous contract demands of Strasburg too much, thinking that the Nats might be willing to settle for less so they wouldnt have to spend $50 Million to sign the kid.
Would you rather have Strasburg or the Tex package of Feliz, Elvis, Harrison, Salty, and Beau Jones.
I’d take the package over any one player, but thats basically what it looks like it might take (if it were even possible). Sports Hypotheticals are fun…
Yeah, I think not only would it take the number one draft pick, Hickory rotation member, and Max Ramirez, but probably also Feliz or Holland and Andrus.
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