Evan is a Big Fat Idiot (and other 40-man roster observations)

Just kidding.  I love Evan like a brother.  But he did question my sanity and what’s the point of having the bully pulpit of a quasi-blog if I can’t put on my attack-dog suit every now and again and flash some teeth?

Evan wants to expose RHPs Luis Mendoza and Dustin Nippert and CF Greg Golson before 3B Travis Metcalf.

Here’s a truncated version of my retort:

1) Pitching, pitching, pitching. Don’t quit on a possible starter too soon or assume that you have enough bullpen depth; and

2) A former first-round, 23 year old plus defensive center fielder with ungodly physical tools and no plate discipline is ten times as valuable as a former 11th round 26 year old third baseman with a pretty good glove and no plate discipline.

Let’s start with this: My approach to solving the 40-man dilemma was based, first and foremost, on attempting to avoid losing a pitcher. Any pitcher. Putting Hunter on the 60-day and exposing Metcalf to waivers was the only way I could think of doing that.

The Rangers generally, and Jon Daniels specifically, simply cannot afford to make another Galarraga-style mistake.

I agree that the odds are wildly against Mendoza becoming the next Galarraga, but I’ve seen flashes of Mendoza being brilliant (second half of the 2007 season with Frisco when he was dealing power sinker-slider combo). And people seem to forget that he looked damn good during his September 2007 cameo with the big club (2.25 ERA; 1.063 WHIP). It’s not as if there is no evidence whatsoever that he can deliver quality innings at some point.

If there is anything more impossible to predict or control in baseball, it is the bullpen. In the years when the Rangers tried to buy a quality bullpen by handing out big money to “name” guys (early part of this century), they had some of the most inept bullpens they’ve ever had.

Jeff Zimmerman came out of nowhere. Ron Mahay came out of nowhere to give the Rangers two very strong years before falling apart in 2005. And when he couldn’t get a job in 2006, he signed a minor league deal with the Rangers before giving them another great year and a half. Carlos Almanzar signed as a minor league free agent before the 2004 season and then went out and gave the Rangers 73 quality innings in what was their best season of the decade. You just don’t know which reliever is sitting on his one or two great years. Doug Brocail has 14 big league season, ten of which sucked. He had two sets of two-year spans where he was outstanding and they came nine years apart.

I could go on and on, but the point is that a guy like Nippert or Eyre might turn out to be one of the keys to a successful season like Almanzar was in 2004.

I’ve always been a pretty big Metcalf fan. My position is not based on an excessively low opinion of him. But I don’t think he’s going to be a viable major league hitter. And for what it’s worth, PECOTA absolutely hates him.

I’m not terribly bullish on Greg Golson either, but he’s giving signs that he might finally be on the verge or realizing his vast potential.

Golson was a .260 / .304 / .399 hitter through his first four years in the minors (at Rookie and Class-A levels), and last year he shot up to .282 / .333 / .434 while making what is often said to be the most difficult jump in the minors to Double-A. Prior to the 2008 season, Golson’s walk-to-strikeout ratio (BB/K) was 0.18 and last year it improved to 0.26 and in August of 2008, he posted a career-best BB/K ratio of 0.36 (still not very good, but moving towards something palatable).

And for what it’s worth, Golson did hit .348 / .360 / .609 this spring before going back down to minor league camp while Metcalf has hit .197 / .232 / .242 this spring.

If Golson moves forward again this season with Oklahoma, he could become the sort of player who keys a significant trade.

Metcalf just doesn’t hold that promise and the gap in value between what he brings to the table and what Duran brings to the table is a wash, at best. I’ll grant Evan that Metcalf is the better defender at third base, but Duran is clearly the better hitter and that, combined with his versatility, makes him the clearly more valuable player.

Finally, I doubt that the Yankees will jump all over Metcalf if he hits the waiver wire but if they do, they do. In spite of the position scarcity, he’s the player the Rangers are least likely to look back and regret losing.