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Spring Fever: Why April Has Been So Cruel To Rangers And Why 2009 Might Buck The Recent Trend

The Rangers may not be anybody's April Fool this year.

The Rangers may not be anybody's April Fool this year.

Baseball conventional wisdom says: “You can’t win a playoff spot in April, but you can lose one.”

It applies only to 29 teams.

The adage changes for the Rangers. It goes something like this: “As goes April, so goes the season.”

At least it’s been that way since 1994 when the club moved into the summertime blast furnace known as Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. The rules all changed with the new stadium and the changing global climate (if you believe such silly folks as scientists).

Because the place is hitter friendly in the first place and because the winds tend to gather into a jet stream to right center during the summer and because the temperatures regularly rise above 90 after mid-June, getting off to a hot start in the spring and surviving through the summer is essential.

Just consider the stats. Since moving into the park, the Rangers have had five “hot” Aprils. And by “hot” we mean being more than one game over .500 at the end of the month. Three of those years (1996, 1998 and 1999) resulted in division championships. A fourth, in 2004, resulted in an 89-win season. In 1997, mid-summer catastrophic injuries to the starting rotation wrecked a season that started with a 14-10 month.

Tonight, with RHP Vicente Padilla on the mound, the Rangers have a chance to go two games over .500 in April for the first time since the final day of the month in 2004.

“I still think that over the course of the regular season, you are going to win as many as you should and lose as many as you should, regardless of how you finish any one month,” said third baseman Michael Young. “I’m not one to look at April and say it’s a huge, huge month. It’s important to get some momentum, but it’s not do or die.”

The last two years, though, that’s exactly what it has been.

The Rangers got off to a 10-15 start in Ron Washington’s first year. And a bad April led into a worse May and a terrible June before there was any kind of recovery.

Last year, the Rangers seemed to feel the pressure of trying to avoid a similar start and fell into a worse hole. They fought their way to a 5-4 record, then lost 12 of the next 14. The Rangers made 30 errors in the 28 games of the first month and allowed 22 unearned runs. It put manager Ron Washington on the brink of firing before the club started to turn things around.

“I wish I had an answer to why we didn’t play well, but we didn’t,” Washington said.

The Rangers spent the summer months clawing their way back up the standings and by the time they got to August, they were on the fringes of the wild card race. But that’s about the time of year the heat takes a toll on the pitching staff. After the mid-July All-Star break, the team compiled a 5.77 ERA. Even the best offense in the league couldn’t keep pace with that.

That’s why getting out in front in April is so important. While teams in more comfortable climates – see Oakland and Los Angeles – have the capability to track down front runners with steady pitching in the summer months, it’s necessary for the Rangers to set the tone and put pressure on those clubs.

To do it, the Rangers are trying to go back in time. On Monday, the Rangers took the first step by winning a season-opener for the first time since 2003. Tonight, they have a chance to go to 2-0 for the first time since 2000. It’s all in a goal of doing what they haven’t done since 1999: win the division.

“We understand that if we want to win the division, we’ve got to play good baseball all year and that includes April,” said 2B Ian Kinsler. “I think last year, we put a lot of pressure on ourselves in the clubhouse to not have a repeat of 2007. This year, no one mentioned it. We know what we have to do and we’ve been getting ready to do it.”

Kinsler and others all believe that familiarity will play a big part in a better start. And it may very well do that. While there are a handful of new players, most are in part-time roles. With the exception of rookie Elvis Andrus, the personnel in the starting lineup is the same as it was for much of last year. The pitching staff has added Kris Benson, but that’s the only new face on a 12-man staff.

But there are other factors, too.

•  Home time: The Rangers opened at home, play nine of their first 12 games in Arlington and are at home for 12 of 22 games during the month. It’s a direct contrast to Washington’s first two years. They didn’t open at home in either 2007 or 2008 and they played more games on the road than in Arlington in both months.

• Opponents: While team makeup obviously changes from year to year, the Rangers April opponents are coming off far worse seasons than the 2008 opponents. This year’s group, which includes only three games against a team that finished above .500 last year (Toronto), had a .473 winning percentage in 2008. Last year’s April opponents had a .514 winning percentage in 2007. It included four games at World Champion Boston and three games to open the season at Los Angeles, which won the AL West.

• AL West absence: Since 2001, the Rangers have spent most of April playing AL West opponents. That’s made rough starts doubly troublesome. The Rangers were 7.5 games out in the division race by the end of April last year. This year, they play only three games within the division this month, all against Oakland in Arlington to conclude the month.

April is crucial to the Rangers’ season and the last two years it’s been cruel. But the start and the schedule suggest that maybe, just maybe, a new spring could dawn in Arlington.

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11 Comments to “Spring Fever: Why April Has Been So Cruel To Rangers And Why 2009 Might Buck The Recent Trend”
  • Jon

    The Rangers are the only team in MLB facing a “Must Win” game as their second game of the season.

    Just kidding.

    Then again; maybe not………….

  • Chris

    The way I see it, every game played is ‘must win’…

  • David C

    I’m curious concerning the summer faltering of the pitching staff. What I would be interested in knowing is how the 1996, 1998, and 1999 Ranger pitching staffs ERA fared Post All Star Game vs before, as you have stated about last year. I would also be interested in how the opponent’s composite ERA against the Rangers fared for the same time frames.

    In other words, is it truly an undeniable fact that the Rangers are going to pitch worse in late July-September than they do earlier in the year, or was last year a case where everyone in the organization was hurt and they had to throw in guys who had no business being in a major league rotation?

  • Jolly

    A schedule that favors the Rangers is huge…..this month has to be a winner…..4 or 5 games above .500 is very possible

  • Time to Roll

    What makes it so crucial is the off-day in the middle of a season-opening series … any “mo” that might have been established after Monday must be re-established tonight. Padilla is on the mound, so there’s a chance for a big pitching performance, but who knows.
    This team has a ton of potential … but potential can be tantalizingly madning … especially for the Rangers. So, if the Rangers can roll off another win, no matter how, that will be huge … the weather this weekend in Detroit is supposed to be dicey …

  • Evan Grant

    @David C: Here is your info (please note that this doesn’t break down between starters and relievers; it’s overall. And I think the effect would be felt more by starters than relievers.

    1996: 4.77 pre All-Star break, 4.51 post (should be mentioned that John Burkett was a trading deadline acquisition and injected fresh blood into the rotation)

    1998: 4.35 pre, 5.06 post
    1999: 5.09 pre, 5.05 post

    So this data is not as definitive as the story might suggest. What might be a better gauge, however, is how the Rangers pre- and post- ERAs compare to division foes in those years. I’ll try to add that to my list for today.

  • Brandon B

    Evan, I normally agree with you, but to partly blame the poor pitching on global warming is asinine. To partly blame the poor pitching on heat is asinine.

    Contrary to Al Gore’s opinion, the debate isn’t over. (BTW, scientific fact is never determined through debate.) Temperatures have dropped over the past decade yet the Rangers pitching staff has gotten worse. One using quasi-science would theorize that if global warming made them worse, global cooling would make them better.

    The whole heat thing is bogus, bogus, bogus. On average, a starting pitcher pitches 5 – 6 games each month. Assuming half of those games are at home and half on the road, that means a starting pitcher will pitch on average 3 games at home per month. Are we to believe that a MLB pitcher is incapable of performing well in heat for a couple hours less than once a week? Sorry, but that is a lousy excuse for a poor pitching staff.

    Funny how people don’t make excuses for pitching staffs in other hot weather cities such as Atlanta, St. Louis, and Miami. Then again, they have all assembled championship staffs who perform regardless of the weather. Evan, please stop the excuse making for an historically bad pitching staff. I predict that when the Rangers get better pitching, the heat won’t hardly be mentioned.

  • blalock

    honestly, the injuries to the pitching staff was the real cause of the ERA spike last year, when Warner Madrigal, Tommy Hunter, and Luis Mendoza are starting games for you, you are usually gonna be in trouble. I dont understand why we have to get off to such a good start or we are out of it. We can still play great baseball in July and August and even if our pitchers are struggling in the heat of the summer at RBiA, so are the opponents pitchers…

    I doubt the data shows all that much, if any kind of difference in the data, and that should also mean the opposing pitchers will struggle with the heat.

  • Tsing Sao

    Brandon B, you’re on the spot… and we have to consider that the Park is there, any management of the pitching stat should start and finish with the park in consideration (for advantage purposes), as Kevin Millwood pointed out, the other pitcher has to pitch too… I’m assuming either a loosing culture or a lack os study on the matter has lead to wait ‘and see what happens’. Look at Colorado, they figured out a way for pitchers to exist in Denver… there’s no excuse for why we haven’t done that here.

  • David C

    Thanks for the info Evan.

    What I find amazing is that the Rangers won the division in 1999 with a 5+ ERA the entire season. And, wasn’t 1999 the year they set their all time season win total of 95? But now that I think about it, weren’t the other teams in the West pretty putrid that year? Seattle had a down year, and I think Oakland was where the Rangers were a year or two ago, and the Angels weren’t that good either.

  • Kenny In China

    We need to go 16-6 in April. Looking at the schedule it looks possible.