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Actuary Look At The Stars’ Season (Part II)

Much of the following will come as no shock. But it’s better to have a more specific idea why the Stars groped through the season. And, no, there’s nothing here related to man-games. Stars fans know what it meant to miss Brenden Morrow, Brad Richards, Sergei Zubov and friends. Let’s stick to the hard numbers of what happened on ice:

In dropping from 97 points last season to 83, the 14-point fall was the second worst in the league and the largest among winning teams or 2008 playoff teams. Topped only by the New York Islanders, who went from bad (79) to worst (61).

Much of the detailed bad news relates to defense. In allowing 257 goals, the Stars tied for worst in the Western Conference with last-place Colorado. Four teams in the East were worse, “topped” by Toronto and the Stars’ ol’ friend Ron Wilson with 293. In giving up 27 more goals this season than last, that was the fourth-worst dropoff in goals against in the league.

Probably most damning is that the Stars’ goal differenial went from +35 last season (third-best in the NHL) to -27 this year. The difference of -62 was the worst in the league. Next was Montreal, whose change was -38. (Bob Gainey’s Habs, by the way, head into their first-round series against No. 1 Boston on a four-game losing streak, reaching the playoff by a tie-breaker over Florida.)

Dallas finished 20th in scoring at 230 goals, only 12 short of last year’s total. The Stars finished with two players among the league’s top 100 scorers, No. 21 Mike Ribeiro and No. 53 Loui Eriksson. Only three teams in the league had fewer than that in the top 100, with one each: Phoenix (No. 29 Shane Doan), Minnesota (No. 44 Mikko Koivu) and the New York Islanders (No. 83 defenseman Mark Streit). Last season, the Stars had four in the top 100: No. 13 Ribeiro, No. 26 Morrow, No. 57 Richards and No. 72 Mike Modano.

The power play ranked 27th, penalty killing 24th.

And one last look at Sean Avery:

In Dallas: 23 games, 3-7=10, plus-minus of even and 77 PIM.

In New York: 18 games, 4-7=11, plus-minus of +1 and 36 PIM. He scored the tying goal on Sunday as the Rangers rallied to win at Philadelphia 4-3 and deny the Flyers home ice in their series against Pittsburgh.

On Tuesday night, the NHL will hold its draft lottery. The Stars tied with Ottawa for 22nd in the league overall and are slotted at No. 23 since they lost their only meeting with the Senators this season. By finishing with the eighth-worst record in the league, the Stars will pick anywhere from fourth (if they win the lottery) to ninth (if someone behind them in the field of 14 wins it). More on what’s available on Tuesday morning.