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Derby Time

Make the jump to get my horse-by-horse analysis of the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby along with selections for what appears to be a wide-open classic.

1) West Side Bernie (30-1)
* The story: This is a second-tier colt who ran a credible second to likely favorite I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial on April 4.

* Style: He figures to be one of many in the Derby who do their best running from well off the pace and breaking from the one hole isn’t going to be the end of the world for him as it might have been for a horse who depends more on early position.

* Bottom Line: Made a huge jump in his last race and figures to bounce. He appears to lack the class and ability to compete with the best in this race.

2) Musket Man (20-1)
* The Story: Purchased as a yearling for the bargain-basement price of $15K, the proud owners of this guy have already enjoyed the ride of a lifetime. Musket Man has already won two minor derbies (the Illinois and Tampa Bay) and has won over four different dirt surfaces.

* Style: He has tactical speed and in this race, that should put him near the lead going into the first turn. It will be critical for jockey Eibar Coa to break well and keep him from getting shuffled way back as go down the stretch the first time and that’s a tall order coming from the two hole in a 20-horse field.

* Bottom Line: He’s game. As his purchase price suggests, he’s not especially well bred and I have my doubts about him getting the trip, but if he finds himself laying in the top three behind a soft pace after the first quarter of a mile, he could be trouble.

3) Mr. Hot Stuff (30-1)
* The Story: Took him five races to break his maiden and then has run third in California’s two biggest prep races since then. One of three horses in the race owned by Dallas resident Kenny Troutt’s Kentucky-based WinStar Farm.

* Style: One of many deep closers in this race and his pedigree screams mile and a quarter. Both his sire Tiznow and his broodmare sire Turkoman were best at this distance. He should like the traditional dirt surface of Churchill better than the artificial surfaces he’s raced over in California.

* Bottom Line: On paper, he’s no better than the third or fourth choice among the California entrants. He’d have to improve a ton to compete tomorrow.

4) Advice (30-1)
* The Story: Another colt entered by Dallas native Kenny Troutt’s WinStar Farm. He made a dramatic late move to win the Lexington stakes at Keeneland two weeks ago, but his speed figure wasn’t strong and his rider that day, the great Garrett Gomez, chose to go with a rival in tomorrow’s race.

* Style: Comes from waaaay downtown if he comes at all. He’ll be near the back of the pack early.

* Bottom Line: The third best horse in his own stable. Not a factor.

5) Hold Me Back (15-1)

* The Story: The third WinStar entrant is trained by the best trainer on Earth to have never won a Derby, Bill Mott. The exquisitely bred son of Giant’s Causeway was upset as the favorite in the Blue Grass Stakes on April 11, but ran a strong second. He’s run on a traditional dirt surface just once in his life and was beaten soundly.

* Style: Another deep closer who likes to unleash one big run down the lane.

* Bottom Line: Mott says that he doesn’t think that this colt will have any trouble with the dirt surface but I have my doubts. He appears to be a cut below the best anyway.

6) Friesan Fire (5-1)

* The Story: Constantly improving colt by the great A.P. Indy won all three major preps in Louisiana and trainer Larry Jones — who conditioned the ill-fated filly Eight Belles who finished second in last year’s Derby before suffering a fatal injury — seems to have this guy completely tuned in right now.

* Style: One of the few horses in this race who wants to be close to the lead. With 13 horses ouside of him, jockey Gabriel Saenz must get a good break to obtain position going into the first turn and avoid being shuffled back. He should be sitting in the top three or four as they head into the backstretch and figures to make the lead by the three-eighths pole.

* Bottom Line: The armada of deep closers will have their hands full running this guy down in the final eighth of a mile. His pedigree should carry him home. My choice.

7) Papa Clem (20-1)

* The Story: Was crushed by more than seven lengths in the Louisiana Derby by Friesan Fire and then came back to win a relatively weak Arkansas Derby. His form is a key to sorting out this Derby since he’s run against just about all of the favorites.

* Style: His tactical speed was sharpened this week by trainer Gary Stute who blew him out three-eighths in :34 flat. A phenomenally fast time. Clearly they want the lead and there isn’t anybody here who is fast enough to take it from him.

* Bottom Line: Though this colt has some class and is clearly improving, I don’t think he has what it takes to hold off Friesan Fire. If he gets away with a slow pace, he could hang on for a minor share.

8 ) Mine That Bird (50-1)

* The Story: The owners of this gelding are using him to get good seats at the Derby.

* Style: Doens’t matter.

* Bottom Line: Hope he comes home safe and is able to race against proper competition in the future.

9) Join in the Dance (50-1)
* The Story: One of two entrants from the barn of top trainer Todd Pletcher has one one race in his career and is not even expected to win this race by his own connections.

* Style: This colt is a rabbit, in the race to create a pace scenario for Pletcher’s best colt Dunkirk. He’s just in here to assure that Friesan Fire and Papa Clem don’t have it too easy up front.

* Bottom Line: Right about the time they go into the final turn, you’ll probably see jockey Chris DeCarlo ease this colt away from the rail and then more-or-less gallop him home. He’s about even-money to finish last.

10) Regal Ransom (30-1)
* The Story: One of two entries by Sheikh Mohammad bin Rashid al Maktoum’s Godolphin stable. Sheikh Mo has invested countless millions into his project of developing racing in Dubai and part of the plan is to have a Kentucky Derby winner who prepared for the race in Dubai. Hasn’t happened yet, but many feel this year will be his best chance ever. Regal Ransom won the United Arab Emirates Derby in late March and has worked beautifully over the Churchill surface since then.

* Style: This colt will be in the front bunch with Friesan Fire and Musket Man behind early leaders Join in the Dance and Papa Clem.

* Bottom Line: He’s a real wild card for me. My inclination is to leave him off my tickets altogether, but it wouldn’t shock me if he hangs in there for a piece. His own barn seems to like their other entry better.

11) Chocolate Candy (20-1)
* The Story: Trainer Jerry Hollandorfer has dominated Northern California racing for decades but when he leaves the Bay Area for other parts of the world — which he doesn’t do often — he’s always competitive. This colt was a strong second place finisher to one of tomorrow’s likely favorites, Pioneer of the Nile, in the Santa Anita Derby in his last start and won both of the major preps in Northern California before that. His pedigree is very solid and there’s no reason to think he won’t get the trip.

* Style: Another who will likely be at the back of the pack, though he has enough tactical speed that he could be placed a bit more forwardly.

* Bottom Line: I just don’t see the quality in the California horses this year. Neither the speed figures nor the sheets numbers suggest that these colts can compete with the best in this race. They appear to be about as good as Colonel John — last year’s best California entrant — was in last year’s Derby and that was not nearly good enough.

12) General Quarters (20-1)
* The Story: You are sure to hear a lot about this colt tomorrow if you watch the broadcast. His owner-trainer is a retired school teacher and this is his only horse. The winner of the prestigious Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland last month.

* Style: Does his best running from just off of the lead and he’ll try to hang with Friesan Fire in the second tier of horses as they head into and down the backstretch.

* Bottom Line: I just don’t see the quality here. Can’t use him.

13) I Want Revenge (3-1)
* The Story: This colt was among a group of four or five colts in California — with Pioneer of the Nile, Chocolate Candy and Papa Clem — who all appeared to be roughly of the same quality. Then he left for New York do get in his final preps of the spring and dominated in two races over the dirt. Did he improve because he didn’t like the synthetic surfaces in California or was it simply a matter of the California horses being vastly superior to the horses in New York? And after firing off two big bullets, does he have any left?

* Style: They can place this horse just about anywhere and young jockey Joe Talamo will have to judge the pace scenario accordingly.

* Bottom Line: He’s the likely favorite and I’m betting against him. I don’t think a lot of the California horses here and the horses he beat in New York weren’t especially impressive to me either. Plus, I think he may have peaked too soon.

14) Atomic Rain (50-1)
* The Story: Was fourth in the Wood Memorial to I Want Revenge in his last race and third in a garden-variety allowance race before that.

* Style: Doesn’t really matter, but he likes to be near the pace.

* Bottom Line: Doesn’t belong.

15) Dunkirk (4-1)
* The Story: From one of the top international racing operations which purchased this colt for $3.7 million as a yearling. He’s lightly raced, but has lived up to his billing so far. Beaten by a length and a half by the best horse of this crop in the Florida Derby last time out. If Quality Road had not suffered a foot problem, he would clearly be the choice in this race. With his defection, this colt moves right to the head of the pack with Friesan Fire.

* Style: Likes to settle in the middle of the back of the pack and make a gradual gain on the front runners. Riding tactics will be critical and even though he loses the best jock in the world, Garrett Gomez, he picks up the great Edgar Prado who ought to fit him perfectly.

* Bottom Line: This is an extremely talented colt who is very inexperienced. Chasing the Quality Road home in the Florida Derby might have taken too much out of him. There are some saying that he’s lost a noticable amount of weight since that race. Nonetheless, in a race without a lot of talent, he stands out and will be a key player on all of my tickets.

16) Pioneer of the Nile (4-1)
* The Story: Just barely the best of the California group and trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert who has won this race three times. He gets the best rider in the world, Garrett Gomez, who opted off of Dunkirk. He’s likely to be one of the two betting favorites tomorrow.

* Style: A stalker who likes to be near the lead and seize control at the head of the lane and then fight his way home. He has never just drawn off and dominated a field, but he’s got a winning habit.

* Bottom Line: If you are a believer in the California horses, you have to love him. Gomez making this one his choice is a factor. But I’m betting against.

17) Summer Bid (50-1)
* The Story: Was third in the Arkansas Derby in just his third career start. His connections are in above their heads with this one.

* Style: Deep closer who will never threaten in this race.

* Bottom Line: Doesn’t belong here.

18) Nowhere to Hide (50-1)
* The Story: Fourth to Musket Man in the Illinois Derby last time out. Fourth to Musket Man in the Tampa Bay Derby the race before that. Fourth to Friesan Fire in the Risen Star Stakes the race before that. This we know: He’s not as good as Musket Man or Friesan Fire.

* Style: In his best races, he’s a stalker but lately he’s lacked the speed to stay close enough to be in that position so he’ll be way back early on.

* Bottom Line: Non factor.

19) Desert Party (15-1)
* The Story: Sheikh Mo’s $2.1 million yearling purchase has been prepped in Dubai like his stablemate Regal Ransom and they’ve run against each other three times this spring with this one winning twice and Regal Ransom winning the other. He’s bred for the job here, has proven he loves a dirt surface, already won a stakes race in the United States and is training forwardly for this race.

* Style: A stalker with a finishing punch. Underrated jockey Ramon Dominguez can put him just about anywhere he wants to.

* Bottom Line: Godolphin has tried to do it their way and failed for so many years that he’s likely to get decent odds. But they did things a bit differently this year, giving their two colts a bit more experience than usual heading into the Derby. They ran more often and against better horses than previous Godolphin Derby hopefuls and in this mostly mediocre bunch, this one appears to have the quality to be a major player.

20) Flying Private (50-1)
* The Story: A bad fifth to Papa Clem in a pretty bad Arkansas Derby. From the barn of Hall of Famer Wayne Lukas, who has won this race four times.

* Style: A mid-to-back of the pack stalker type.

* Bottom Line: Non factor.

How the Race Unfolds: You should see Join in the Dance take an early lead, followed fairly closely by Papa Clem, Regal Ransom, Atomic Rain and perhaps Desert Party. Friesan Fire, Pioneer of the Nile, Musket Man and General Quarters should be close to that group as they head into the first turn.

As they complete the journey down the backstretch, you’ll see Dunkirk begin to edge closer to the first group, most of which will start to fade by then. Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge, Desert Party and Pioneer of the Nile will all begin to charge hard for the lead as they head through the turn.

At the head of the lane, I figure you’ll see a line of Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge, Desert Party, Pioneer of the Nile and — if all goes well for me — Regal Ransom at the head of the pack with Dunkirk hot on their heels. By the eighth pole, I’ll be looking for Dunkirk and Friesan Fire to edge away from the others.

My Play: I’m going to be playing Friesan Fire and Dunkirk heavy on top with Desert Party, Regal Ransom and Musket Man. My angle is to throw out the California group that includes Pioneer of the Nile, Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy and likely favorite I Want Revenge. If you want chalk, I can’t help you. I’m looking to hit the long ball tomorrow.

Good luck to those of you who play the game and I hope the rest of you find something here that will enhance your enjoyment of the greatest two minutes in sports.