Draft Q&A With Kevin Goldstein From Baseball Prospectus

Following one farm system closely year after year has taught me one thing above all else: the guys who manage to do so for 30 systems are supermen. And the guys who add amatuer prospects to their plate are insane geniuses.

Nobody I know has more propspecty information in his giant baseball brain than my friend Kevin Goldstein from Baseball Prospectus. KG was kind enough to share his thoughts on the Rangers draft with me over the phone this morning. Check it out after the jump.

Why did Tanner Scheppers fall so far? Both you and BA had him going around #10. Usually you guys have a pretty good read on at least the general area in which a guy will be picked. What happened?

It was almost completely the health thing. Basically there was a stress fracture in the shoulder and he never really dealt with it aside from taking time off with a managed throwing program. I know that some teams just crossed him off the list because of health issues. As you guys know in Texas, a stress fracture in the shoulder can come back again.

There were probably some teams at the bottom of the first round that didn’t even bother to send someone out to see him because they didn’t think he’d be there for them. There’s a psychological thing going on there when he starts to fall where people start to say to themselves that because he hasn’t been picked everybody else must know something they don’t know so they pass too. But the teams that scouted him didn’t seem to have any questions that his stuff is all the way back. And it’s still top-10 talent stuff.

Do you think that the Matt Harrington story will influence guys like Crow and Scheppers? Do you think that they’ll be extremely reluctant to spend a whole year in indy ball and run themselves through draft after draft to see if a good deal one year gets better the next?

I’ve been thinking about that a lot, actually. Maybe Harrington isn’t the best example because that was just horrible representation, but I do think that the situations for both Crow and Scheppers might be a turning point between signing and playing indy ball. I don’t think Crow will get $3.5 million which is what Washington offered him last year. The Rangers will probably offer about what Scheppers was offered from Pittsburgh last year.

Was Scheppers at #44 the best value pick, vis-a-vis talent level, in this draft for the Rangers?

No. Matthew Purke was. He was the fifth or sixth best talent in the draft and to get a guy like that at 14, one year after getting the third or fourth best talent in the draft at 11, is robbery. Again. He’s going to sign. There’s no doubt in my mind about that. They had him in for a workout before the draft, they talked to his reps before the draft. They obviously knew what it was going to take to sign him before they took him. There won’t be any surprises there for either side. But it’s going to be way above slot and so they can’t do it until near the deadline.

Were there clubs that passed on him because there things about his mechanics they didn’t like, or was this purely a signability thing?

I’m not sure. I know that there are some people who weren’t crazy about his mechanics, but nothing scary. Not like Beavan last year. If you like him he’s got a loose arm and if you don’t he’s slinging it. Whatever. His combination of stuff and command is outstanding. His makeup is a big plus too. I’d like to see a higher arm angle, but that’s just a personal preference.

What’s the track record of high school pitchers going in the first round, turning down slot money or slightly better, and then trying again in three years (or two years)?

Not many high school pitchers who are picked in the first round turn the money down so there aren’t a lot of examples. But there aren’t many examples of guys helping themselves. Mark Prior obviously. He was a supplemental first out of high school and then set a bonus record three years later. Jeremy Sowers is an example, but I don’t think Cincinnati actually tried to sign him out of high school.

What do you know about Ruben Sierra, Jr.?

Sure looks like his dad when he was 16. Exact same body at that age. There’s a lot to get worked up about with the physical tools. Arm is plus-plus, speed is plus, tremendous bat speed, but no real idea of what he’s doing now. There will be a lot of growing pains and there will need to be a lot of patience there. He’s not going to stay that fast, but he’ll never be a clogger, obviously.

What late round pick stood out most to you?

Reggie Williams. Most interesting pick in the 30ish rounds by anybody. He’s the best athlete they took by far, including Sierra. 6’4″, 200 lbs. Football bloodlines. Plus-plus runner. He’s going to cost a lot of money to sign. If they get him, it’s going to be very interesting. I know some people thought he was a supplemental first round or second round guy but he fell because nobody thinks he’s going to sign. So were the Rangers just taking a flyer or are they going to go after him? If they land him, this becomes probably the best draft of the year.

What can you tell me about LHP Chad Bell?:

Sounds like he’s going to go to the Cape and pitch this summer and let the cards play out, which is not a bad idea. There’s thought that he thinks he’s worth more than a mid-teens pick, but at the same time he’d like to sign. And maybe the Rangers might want to look at him some more before they make a decision.

What’s up with 3B Tommy Mendonca in the second? What was that all about?

If there was one pick I didn’t like, that was it. I’m not sure what he is for Texas. In a perfect world, you’re hoping he’s Russell Branyan with some defensive skills. That doesn’t exactly fit in with what the Rangers are doing right now. It was a head scratcher for me and I just didn’t get it… at all.

Speaking of guys who don’t seem to fit in with the philosophy, what do you make of the Andrew Doyle selection in the fourth?

Yeah, there’s not a lot of upside there and the stuff isn’t overwhelming, but Doyle is a guy who knows how to pitch, commands three pitches. He’s a winner and can be up quickly in some capacity. He’s one of the few guys they took where there isn’t a ton of projection or super plus-plus tool in the package somewhere.

Getting back to projection, tell me what you know about the three high school pitchers taken on Day 2: McBride, Lemke and Jamison.

Classic Rangers picks. Huge projection for all of those guys. Lemke is going to want a lot more than 10^th round money for sure. But he’s the sort of guy Texas likes. It doesn’t get much more projectable than 6’7″. McBride is interesting. But the thing about projection is that there’s a long, long line of pitchers who never threw harder than they did in high school. Beavan is just one example. It’s very common. Not every 18 year old with a supposedly projectable body gains velocity or better stuff just because they get bigger or mature physically.

Another projection guy is Jabari Blash. What do you know about him?

A physical monster. He’s 6’5″, 215 lbs. Enormous strength and great speed for his size. Great arm. He hits the ball eight miles and wants to hit it eight and a half. Swings and misses a lot. He doesn’t have much experience, so he should get better with pro instruction. Again, the Rangers are going for the big tools here and it will be up to the development staff to get something out of these guys.