Kevin Millwood Vs. Jered Weaver: An All-Star Pitching Matchup, But Will They Be All-Stars?

In addition to the slightly-less-than-oppressive heat currently blanketing the area, tonight features real incentive for fans to stream to Rangers Ballpark In Arlington.

It’s Dollar Hot Dog Night.

That seems to bring out the crowds, much more so than say a AL West showdown between the first-place Angels and the contending Rangers. But, for you handful of baseball purists out there, if you want to see a great pitching matchup, tonight’s game offers a legitimate possibility of one. Kevin Millwood, fifth in the AL in ERA, faces Jered Weaver, who is sixth. The difference between the two is .01096 earned runs per nine inning. But for easier-to-read purposes, Millwood is at 2.64; Weaver at 2.65. Both have eight wins. Both have more than 100 innings pitched. Both are having All-Star caliber seasons.

Which leads me to my next question: Will both be All-Stars? Will either?

The All-Star pitching staffs are now constructed by player and manager voting. They vote for five starters and three relievers. That was completed over the weekend and will be announced on Sunday. Players were given Friday and Saturday to vote. Players who voted promptly, didn’t get a chance to factor in Millwood’s Friday night start, in which he beat San Diego. Same goes for Weaver.

We, fortunately, have the luxury of waiting as long as we want on this topic and we figured today would be the perfect day since they are facing one another and since it’s entirely possibile only one of them makes the team, we thought it would make fine time to examine Millwood’s chances of making his second All-Star team (he made the NL club in 1999).

In speaking with veteran players around the Rangers clubhouse, most said they weigh wins and ERA most heavily when voting for starters. Also, heavy workloads are recognized, so innings pitched is important to many of them, just a notch below the other two categories. And they will also scan strikeouts to see if anybody really stands out. Complete games, shutouts, quality starts, walks/per nine; WHIP; except for the occasaional stat freak in the clubhouse nobody pays attention to it.

So I devised a little scale. A descending scale from 10-to-1 for wins and ERA; from 7-to-1 for innings pitched and from 5-to-1 for strikeouts. It’s not exactly the BCS formula (and thank goodness for that) but it’s something. Based on that, the two hands-down, no-question All-Stars are Kansas City’s Zack Greinke (29.5 points based on leading the league in ERA, innings pitched, tied in wins and second in strikeouts) and Toronto’s Roy Halladay (19.5 points). But then you only needed to be conscious for the last three months to know those guys belonged on the All-Star team.

After that, it would seem to be wide open. A lot of players believe Verlander belongs, even though two of his last three starts have been subpar and pushed his ERA to 3.40. But he is leading the league in strikeouts and that counts for something. There is also strong sentiment that Verlander’s Detroit teammate Edwin Jackson, second in the league in ERA (2.49), which is really kind of like leading the AL since Greinke appears to be in a league of his own this year, deserves to go.

If you constructed a rotation that included those four pitchers -Greinke, Halladay, Verlander and Jackson – you probably wouldn’t get an argument from a single AL hitter. It’s after that where it gets a little close to call. In my crazed mind, there are six guys with any right to be included in the argument: Millwood, Weaver, Seattle’s Felix Hernandez, Minnesota’s Kevin Slowey, Boston’s Tim Wakefield and Cleveland’s Cliff Lee.

Putting the point system aside, Slowey and Wakefield both have ERAs above 4.00, which should negate their 10 wins apeiece. Lee is third in the league in innings, 11th in both ERA and strikeouts, but has only four wins. He’s out, too.

That makes it a competition between Millwood (8-5, 2.64 ERA, 112.2 IP and 70Ks), Weaver (8-3, 2.65, 102 IP and 83Ks) and Hernandez (8-3, 2.54 ERA, 109.2 IP and 107Ks).

As good as Millwood has been this season, he has only the slightest of edges on Hernandez in innings pitched. Hernandez has edges in winning percentage, ERA and strikeouts. Weaver has an edge on Millwood in strikeouts, but I’ll take Millwood’s 10 extra innings in the same number of starts (16) as Weaver any day of the week.

If contribution to his team and personal progress counts, Millwood is a lock. If it comes down purely to statistical performance, though, the last spot has to go to King Felix. And while players do take into account what guys have done for their team, I’m not sure it will offset the statistical advantages Hernandez has.

It doesn’t mean Millwood isn’t All-Star worthy. And it doesn’t even mean he won’t go to the game. Halladay, who just returned from the DL on Sunday, could opt out. Millwood could still be a manager’s choice or could be placed on the ballot for the final spot.

That, however, is up to someone else to decide. If you want to assure yourself of seeing an All-Star-worthy pitching matchup, then you’ve got two hours – and counting – to get to Arlington. Or to at least make sure the TV is in working order.