Comments on: ESPN’s Rob Neyer Says Kevin Millwood Has Been More Lucky Than Good; I Say ‘Wake Up, Rob Neyer’

By: Revisiting Kevin Millwood

Revisiting Kevin Millwood — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 06:56:02 +0000

[...] touted as an All-Star candidate. But over at FanGraphs, R.J. Anderson disagreed, then Rob Neyer concurred, then Evan Grant vehemently denied, and even Adam Morris jumped in on the fun. Just by looking at [...]

By: How you like me now?

How you like me now? — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 17:05:19 +0000

What do you think of Kevin Millwood’s regression to the mean now?

By: JE

JE — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 15:31:24 +0000

@Junior

Since when are enjoyment and accuracy mutually exclusive?

By: Matt

Matt — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 15:28:45 +0000

@Brett
And yet I doubt Evan writes a column about how he was horribly wrong and Neyer was right. If he did, then much respect. But somehow, I don’t see it happening…..

By: Brett

Brett — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 03:41:22 +0000

9 ER in 5 IP for Millwood so far tonight vs. the Angels? Zoinks! Let the regression begin!

By: Junior

Junior — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 01:25:24 +0000

In 2005, Millwood had a 2.86 ERA with 79% LOB. Guess that was luck for 192.1 innings. I think what all of the purists are trying to say is I can sit there and pin-point the stats according the point I want to make, but for those who do not watch the game, stats just water down the enjoyment. I am not a stathead – I put a whole lot less emphasis on W-L because there are factors for that, as there are factors for each stat that you just cannot see unless you watch the game!

By: Matt

Matt — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 21:53:56 +0000

@Jack
Looks like. And whenever their arguments are rebutted, they simply move the goalposts.

By: Jack

Jack — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 21:48:55 +0000

@Matt

Just another case of people who don’t accept sabermetrics trying to flip them back on us without understanding how they actually work.

By: Monday Rangers Notes, Observations, Opinions And More On Kevin Millwood « wire2

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 21:44:33 +0000

[...] Speaking of Millwood and the viral “Is He Lucky or Good?” argument, Rob Neyer links back to us today and a whole bunch of statheads (I don’t consider that [...]

By: Matt

Matt — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 21:42:26 +0000

Evan wrote, “The stats community argues that Millwood can’t control his defense, so the impact the improved defense has had on the pitching staff must be chalked-up to luck or “random variation.” But then why is 2007 used as a baseline comparison? Can’t 2007’s high ERA be somewhat blamed on an overall awful defensive team that committed an AL-worst 124 errors?”

Good thing we’re not looking at his ERA or anything reliant on defense. His 2007 FIP, which strips out fielding and other luck based factors, was 4.55. His 2008 FIP was 4.02. His 2009 FIP is 4.48.

Or in other words, you can knock down strawmen all you want, but you’re just making yourself look silly at this point.