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@Adam Morris – don’t take this the wrong way, because I love your sight and enjoy reading your insights and opinions. But you’re dead wrong buddy. Forget the strand rate. Watch the game tapes to see how many hard hit balls Milly has gotten away with on outs. It’s not happening.

I’ll tell you what – I think we can all agree that Mike Maddow knows and understands great pitching when he sees it. Let’s let him answer this question. Milly is doing exactly what his multi cy young winning brother did for 20 years.

Again, I like you brutha, but you’re getting twisted in what appears in the the box score and not the box hanging on your wall that shows the actual pitches (and I know you watch him, so I’m surprised by your insistence on this).

“No pitcher is going to be able to strand baserunners at such a high rate over a significant period of time. And drilling down in the numbers a little further illustrates why that isn’t possible.”

So, if half a season isn’t a significant period of time, what is?

@Evan: I’m on my way to the game but the pool isn’t open. Can you put me down for Davis, 6th, 1 on, 2-1 count, 405 ft. Hey Jack a small favor, could you enter my entry just in case Evan can’t check??? Puh-leaze!!!

Millwood is allowing opponents to hit line drives about 20% of the time — right around league average. So I don’t buy the “he’s not allowing hard hit balls” argument.

Adam – but what’s to say those 20% aren’t the ballas that are resulting in hits (with noboday on base) and the balls in play that are outs are flies and pops and grounders? You can’t just look at the #s.

And with respect to the strand rate – has somebody dug deeper to look at the tape or ask Milly if he pitching around people more with say 1B open, because he trusts his stuff more? In other words, maybe he’s putting on a few more people (unitentional, intentional walks) which is resulting in more LOB. Or perhaps his stamina is allowing him to FINISH frames, such that a reliever isn’t allowing inherited runners to score (like in 07) but instead Milly is getting them out.

My only point is that numbers can clue you into a situation that might need examining closer. But when you watch Millwood pitch this year, I can CLEARLY see that he isn’t benefiting from luck (lines drives being hit at people, incredible plays, etc.). I see a bunch of very routine, softl hit balls and I see him pitching to the occasion (bearing down when bearing down is needed).

That’s all.

In any event, LOVE the baseball talk as all of my friends are idiots.

Typically respect the stats guys. Brings more fans and interest to the game. But they can’t, or seem unwilling, to acknowledge anything that can’t be explained within their myopic little paradigms.

I’m guessing that because most of them have never played at a high level they can’t, or again are unwilling to, accept that factors such as emotion, adrenaline, momentum, plus the players ability to adjust contribute to results, both positive and negative.

Example;
“stranding runners is outside of Millwoods control”

The guy’s an attorney, he’s obviously pretty smart, but that quote is just obtuse.

You know how getting a bunch of baseball fans together and bringing up Pete Rose or the DH rule used to be like playing with matches in a fireworks factory? Things have changed.

Now all you have to do is express an unpopular opinion based on stats. Don’t forget to duck.

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