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Monday Rangers Notes, Observations, Opinions And More On Kevin Millwood

Posted on July 6th, 2009 2:00pm by Evan Grant
Filed under Baseball, Rangers notes, Texas Rangers

• Just because OF Julio Borbon wasn’t send back to Triple-A last night, don’t expect the Rangers to roll with six outfielders for very long. With RHP Dustin Nippert expected to come off the 60-day DL to make a start on Tuesday, the Rangers are going to create space on both the 25- and 40-man rosters. Borbon is likely to be the 25-man move. Wouldn’t surprise me if RHP Brandon McCarthy is transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60, which takes him off the 40-man roster. McCarthy has already been out four weeks and hasn’t started throwing a ball yet. When he does, it’s going to be with a completely overhauled delivery. That means, he’ll essentially have to go through a whole new spring training. So, I wouldn’t expect him back until mid-August at the earliest.

• In the short-term, the biggest question is not about first base, but about how the Rangers fill the DH spot. It shouldn’t be that hard. They’ve got five legitimate options for three outfield spots and the DH. Rotate OF Marlon Byrd around the three outfield spots and DH four times a week, let him play center field one extra time a week and everybody else gets one day out of five off. Should help keep the outfielders fresh and Byrd playing two or three times a week in center with Josh Hamilton at DH two times a week should only help keep him healthier.

• The next area for immediate attention is second base. Don’t care if Ian Kinsler is fighting for a final spot on the AL All-Star roster; he needs a day off. He actually needed one last week. His current 0-for-21 drought is the lowest of his career and he’s in danger of falling below .250, which really is kind of the new Mendoza Line. Manager Ron Washington has felt like he needed Kinsler in the lineup everyday with Hamilton out. If Kinsler takes a day now and the Rangers lineup suffers for the day, but Kinsler gets refreshed and refocused, it will more than make up for what’s lost. Sometimes you have to sacrifice one game to have a better shot to win the next two. Kinsler was 5-for-37 (.135) on the homestand.

• Yes, Rangers fans should be disappointed RHP Kevin Millwood didn’t make the All-Star team, but the fact that Boston RHP Tim Wakefield was a manager’s selection shouldn’t rile anyone. As has been mentioned often, Wakefield’s selection is as much a career accomplishment as anything. It also gives AL manager Joe Maddon a legitimate long guy to turn to if the game goes into extra innings. Given that the Rangers might actually benefit – hey, it’s not to early to talk home field advantage for the World Series – from the AL winning the game, having that kind of weapon is a plus.

The inclusion of Josh Beckett on the players’ ballots over Millwood indicates to me that players don’t weigh stats and performance nearly as much as they consider who they would least like to face. Beckett is intimidating; Millwood is not. But Millwood has had the better season to this point.

Also, I’d like to say it’s OK to get riled up over the inclusion of Wakefield based on career-accomplishment, but I can’t. Having seen first-hand what Wakefield pours into the community in his hometown of Melbourne, Fla., I’d say that adding a pitcher with a distinguished career on and off the field is just a reward well-deserved.

• Speaking of Millwood and the viral “Is He Lucky or Good?” argument, Rob Neyer links back to us today and a whole bunch of statheads (I don’t consider that a derogatory term, statheads), decided to jump into the argument. Basically, their claim is that Millwood is lucky. I’ll concede – and did in my initial argument – that it is unlikely that Millwood would strand 86 percent of the runners he allows in the second half of the season. The stats community argues that Millwood can’t control his defense, so the impact the improved defense has had on the pitching staff must be chalked-up to luck or “random variation.” But then why is 2007 used as a baseline comparison? Can’t 2007’s high ERA be somewhat blamed on an overall awful defensive team that committed an AL-worst 124 errors?

What I don’t get in this argument is that the good performance is all being credited to good luck, but bad performance isn’t blamed at all on bad luck.

26 Comments to “Monday Rangers Notes, Observations, Opinions And More On Kevin Millwood”

rob m. @ July 6th, 2009 at 2:08 pm

I would rather DH Hamilton fulltime. Imagine the uproar if he gets hurt playing the field again. JD needs give Andruw Jone’s roster spot toa good glove/RH bat to back up Blalock at 1B.
Brett in SD @ July 6th, 2009 at 2:32 pm

1B: A. Jones

OF/DH: Rotate M. Byrd, D. Murphy, N. Cruz and J. Hamilton.

Borbon should go back to AAA and play every day. Golson (actually Boggs when he recovers from his shoulder dislocation) should be a backup OF and late inning defensive replacement.

Hank should be a backup 1B/DH and relegated to pinch hit duty against RHPs late in games.
Jed E. @ July 6th, 2009 at 2:48 pm

Knucklers shouldn’t be allowed on All-Star teams.
VegasbB @ July 6th, 2009 at 2:50 pm

Borbon should be in AAA, Boggs in AA, and Golson on a relay team.
rob m. @ July 6th, 2009 at 3:10 pm

Brett: If Jones were able to play 1B don’t you think he would be playing there more than he has? He is not a 1B.
Ehren @ July 6th, 2009 at 3:21 pm

Hammy should be primary DH and switch with Byrd on selected days.

I have no problem with Wakefield on the All-Star team.

This “arguement” that Neyer uses doesn’t give him, ESPN or statheads any credibility since they really do not calculate “luck” into anything. Since Millwood has led the league in ERA before it’s not like this year has come out of nowhere. Like Evan said, why do they not give credit to the horrible defense back in 2007? Because it doesn’t help their case at all. Did they calculate stranded runners for all the years Millwod has pitched? Probably not.
Josh @ July 6th, 2009 at 3:23 pm

It’s too bad Duran wasn’t thought of more this year, he could play SS, 2B, 3B and maybe even 1B, thus giving guys like Kinsler a rest and giving the team a more defensive option than Blaylock.
Rangers Fan @ July 6th, 2009 at 3:33 pm

So basically…we have not positioned outselves well. We have a ton of out fielders..one utility guy (who I don’t believe has experience at 1st or 3rd). This was some terrible decision making. Where is Nolan in all of this?
Jack Daddy @ July 6th, 2009 at 3:51 pm

The most recent BS Report on Espn.com (with Keith Law as guest) spends the first few minutes talking about the Rangers (and whether they’ll be buyers). Some good stuff, if for no other reason that it’s weird to hear Bill talk about the Rangers when I’ve never seen him write 1 word about them. I’ve alwasy read Simmons -first time to ever listen to his podcast.
gordosan @ July 6th, 2009 at 3:56 pm

Cybermetrics has more holes than swiss cheese.

Evan: How difficult is the transition from center field to left. I’d like to see Hamilton moved out of center field to help prevent wear and tear on his body. Byrd has been more than solid.
jb @ July 6th, 2009 at 3:58 pm

@Jack Daddy: I’m a big Simmons fan as well and started listening to his podcasts about a year ago. He mentioned the Rangers as his sleeper to win the AL West in one of his earlier podcasts. He mentioned he put in a 10-1 odds at vegas for them to win the division.
Jack Daddy @ July 6th, 2009 at 4:12 pm

BS Report – comes back to the Rangers at 22 minute mark. Discussion about whether they would trade Feliz. They both tend to be of the mindset that pitching propects are so unpredictable, that if you can move one when they have value for an established player, you do it without thinking. Though Law indicated that he gets the Rangers mindset given their history and the fact that they can’t sign any FA to come here (and Simmons acknowledged that its probably different for a big market team like the Sox who can trade for a Beckett and sign a DiceK).

Simmons said if the Rangers traded Justin Smoak for Buchholz he would run around his neighborhood naked.
Rangers Fan @ July 6th, 2009 at 4:16 pm

If the trade came up..straight up Smoak for Buchholz…Jump on that. But that would not come up…
Jack Daddy @ July 6th, 2009 at 4:21 pm

@Rangers Fan – I disagree – I don’t think we would do that and I think the Sox would do that trade in an instant. But good for debate, huh? Love this kind of BB talk.

@Evan – I knew the Neyer piece would stir some good talk. Thanks for running with it.

BTW, in listening to Keith Law, he sounds like a glorified fantasy player. I understand now why he got fired from the Jays. I don’t honestly believe he knows any more about baseball than I do. I like him, and he’s enjoyable to listen to and read, but he’s not impressive.
Rangers Fan @ July 6th, 2009 at 4:23 pm

By the way..what is the pitching schedule…Rhynes just mentioned Padilla possibly taking Holland’s start this week. Why do we keep yanking this kid around?? He pitches every 5 days, regardless. Play him here or play him down but he needs to play.
Jack Daddy @ July 6th, 2009 at 4:26 pm

@Rangers Fan – I agree. Keep Millwood on schedule so he pitches twice more, but don’t skip Holland. Move everybody back a day to build some rest. Feldman definitely looks tired to me.
Rangers Fan @ July 6th, 2009 at 4:30 pm

@Jack Daddy: He is a sure-fire thing (Buchholz). Smoak…I’m not convinced. That’s not to say I don’t think he has talent and I am well aware what has been said about him. But there’s no guarantee he comes up here and has success. His and Davis’ minor league numbers are very similiar. I do believe Davis will be an top notch player. We know he has the ability to hit and he is dominating in the field. If he comes back up after figuring his swing…I feel good with him at 1st in the future. So if you can translate Smoak into a sure ace…do it. ASAP.
Jack Daddy @ July 6th, 2009 at 4:30 pm

Both Simmons and Law think the Rays are the 2nd best team in teh A.L. Wonder if they still think that way today? We pretty much whipped their as$ for 3 days. If Burnett is healthy, the Yanks are the second best team. CC/Burnett and Beckett/Lester are a wash. It’s going to come down to #3s. Penny or Pettite? Wakefield or Jaba? I can’t figure the Angels out. They are being carried by their offense, which on paper looks like poop.
Jack Daddy @ July 6th, 2009 at 4:33 pm

@Rangers Fan – I do like Buchholz. I personally wouldn’t do that trade (particularly with the possibility that Davis has lost it), but I wouldn’t be up in arms either. Buchholz and Holland would be a tasty little 1-2, huh? Still wouldn’t do it. Would do any other 2 players in the system (not on ML roster), though. Would do Feliz and Davis, for example.
Brett in SD @ July 6th, 2009 at 4:34 pm

@rob m. – I agree A. Jones is not a 1B. Neither is Hank. And neither is anyone else on the team. With C. Davis now in AAA, the Rangers don’t have a 1B. Considering the Rangers’ options, I’d rather see A. Jones play 1B right now than anyone else.
Jack Daddy @ July 6th, 2009 at 4:37 pm

@Brett in SD – We had to send him down, but you’re right, God help us at 1B. I promise we lose one game this week b/c of 1B defense.
Rangers Fan @ July 6th, 2009 at 4:40 pm

@Jack Daddy- It is an interesting thought. But I don’t think he’s on the block (either one probably) so the point it moot.
eddy andre @ July 7th, 2009 at 10:23 am

trading Smoak is stupid he has a better eye than Davis better bat quicknes more power more self control at the plate
Davis is the better athlete better fielder
Smoak has no speed two left feet but bat makes up switch hitter with power and average from both sides

mistake to get rid of him, should bring him up before the end of the month
playoffs are fine but world series is what it is all about
this pitching may win a week division but nothing in the playoffs
Sriram @ July 7th, 2009 at 10:25 am

Rangers Fan – regarding Buckholz, realize that there’s no such thing as a sure fire ace when it comes to pitching prospects. The pundits once used the same term on the likes of Paul Wilson, Carl Pavano, Mark Prior, etc. He indeed could be great, or he could end up being a broken arm factory. Now I certainly wouldn’t mind getting Buckholz, but I’d be hesitant to give up someone like Smoak given the track record of pitching prospects these days.
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