ANAHEIM, Calif. – The Rangers reached the halfway point of the 2009 season in Monday’s 9-4 loss to Los Angeles. As soon as tonight’s game becomes official, there will be fewer games remaining in the season than have been played. It’s a good time to look at some numbers to see exactly where the team is better and where it is worse. Not surprisingly in virtually every pitching category and every defensive measurement, they are significantly better. Offensively, mostly they are worse.
What follows is a statistical comparison between the 2008 team and the 2009 team along with some commentary on statistical categories that particularly stand out. Your thoughts, as always, are welcomed and encouraged.
In all charts, categories in which the Rangers have improved over last year will be in bold:
OFFENSE
| Category | 2008 | 2009 | Change |
| Record | 41-40 | 45-36 | +9.8 % |
| Batting Avg. | .274 | .257 | -6.2 % |
| On-base pct. | .348 | .318 | -8.6 % |
| Slugging pct. | .457 | .456 | -0.01 % |
| OBP + slugging | .805 | .774 | -3.9 % |
| HRs | 100 | 121 | +21 % |
| Runs | 445 | 403 | -7.1 % |
| Walks | 297 | 241 | -18.9 % |
| Strikeouts | 587 | 651 | +10.9 % |
| Stolen bases | 44 | 69 | +56.8 % |
| Stolen base pct. | 78.6 | 85.1 | +8.3 % |
| BA w/RISP | .274 | .261 | -4.7 % |
On-base percentage: All things considered, this might be the most precipitous offensive drop-off. After 81 games last year, the Rangers were second in the AL in OBP and looked like they had started to master the strike zone. Much of that was due to Milton Bradley’s exceptional first half. With Bradley gone, it appears the Rangers have stopped taking pitches. Only three players have taken more walks at this point than they did last year: Michael Young (30 in 2009 to 28 in 2008), Ian Kinsler (37-27) and David Murphy (24-16). Almost all of the difference in walks at this point (56) can be attributed to the loss of Bradley and the injury to Josh Hamilton. They combined for 74 walks in the first half last year. This season, Hamilton and Bradley’s replacement, Andruw Jones, have combined for 33 walks. That’s a drop of 41 right there.
Home runs: The Rangers have hit 21 more homers than they did last year, but somehow have scored 32 fewer runs overall. Blame that on the number of solo homers. The Rangers lead the majors with 80 in the first 81 games. It puts them on pace for 160 solo homers this season, which would fall one shy of the MLB record since tracking began in 1974. The 2001 Rangers hit 161 bases-empty homers.
Stolen bases: Not only have the Rangers run more, they’ve been more successful when they have run. That’s significant. The Rangers have three players – Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz (both with 16) and Elvis Andrus – on pace for 20 steals. They haven’t had a trio with 20 steals in more than 20 years. And this trio has been successful 91.8 percent of the time.
PITCHING
| Category | 2008 | 2009 | Change |
| Record | 41-40 | 45-36 | +9.8 % |
| ERA | 4.90 | 4.39 | -12.4 % |
| Starters ERA | 4.88 | 4.52 | -7.4 % |
| Relief ERA | 4.92 | 4.11 | -16.5 % |
| Opp. Batting avg | .282 | .264 | -6.4 % |
| Walks | 335 | 275 | -17.9 % |
| Strikeouts | 461 | 452 | -2.0 % |
| Saves (Pct.) | 20 (57.1) | 23 (79.3) | +3 (+38.8 %) |
| Starters Innings | 440.2 | 489.2 | +11.1 % |
| Pitches per inning | 17.3 | 16.6 | -4.0 % |
| Total pitches | 12,608 | 12,001 | -4.7 % |
The overall improvement of the Rangers pitching staff is remarkable. Save for strikeouts, where the club has had nine fewer than in 2008, every area of the pitching staff has seen improvement. And not just token improvement. It’s been significant. The overall ERA has dropped by more than half a run and that’s been pretty consistent with the starers and relievers performances. While the starting rotation has gotten much of the credit for improvement this year, the bullpen’s ability to protect leads has been nothing short of exceptional. The Rangers have not lost a game this year in which they have taken a lead to the ninth inning. They are 34-0 in those games.
Everything, however, starts with the starting rotation. The rotation is averaging just over six innings a game. That keeps arms fresher in the bullpen and allows manager Ron Washington to deploy the bullpen in a defined manner.
The additions of bargain-basement RHP Darren O’Day (waiver claim) and RHP Jason Grilli (purchased from Colorado) have really had an impact on the bullpen. Since Grilli took the mound as a middle man on June 9, the day he was acquired, the Rangers have compiled a 2.44 relief ERA.
FIELDING
| Category | 2008 | 2009 | Change |
| Errors | 72 | 50 | -30.6 % |
| Unearned Runs | 62 | 21 | -66.1 % |
| Fielding Pct. | .977 | .984 | +0.7 % |
Unearned Runs: Perhaps no stat explains the Rangers success this season better than the significant drop in unearned runs. Bottom line: The Rangers have outscored opponents by 29 runs. The defense has saved 41 runs over last year’s porous group. You could make an argument that the improved defense, then, accounts for the entire Rangers’ turnaround. And you know what? You might not get an argument from anybody on the club. The Rangers have allowed the third fewest unearned runs in the AL this season.
Last year, the Rangers allowed a major league-worst 107 unearned runs for the year. The closest AL team was Chicago with 71. It was the most unearned runs allowed by an AL team since the turn of the current century. It tied the club record, originally established in 1973 and was tied for the sixth highest AL figure since the club moved to Texas.
Great stuff Evan. They are taking the slogan “chicks dig the long ball” to heart. No singles for these guys. Only XBHs are allowed. On the pitching front. The reduction in BBs is significant wether it is by luck or the pitchers throwing quality pitches.
Mr. Evan Grant,
Regards your charts .. .. ..
“ooooooooooh, wooooooooooow”
Really you did a bang up job.
Ironic the record is only four games better, but the “feel” of the season is much different this year without the awful start of the past two years. Easier to take a June swoon than falling flat out of the gate!
Thanks for this terrific insight!!
Very helpful stuff. Great insight on the defense.
Great read Evan.
Sweet charts! Hey, next time can we have some pie graphs???
homers up stikeouts up runs down walks down. overswinging team needs a new hitting coach with a different approach.
Wow, it’s amazing the change in pitching considering it is the exact same pitchers as last year!
Excellent charts Evan!
The UnEarned runs stat tells the entire picture for the team. Curious, did not look up DPs comparison. Wonder if it is up.
A good point Defense making pitching better. But the pitchers may have been league avg last year with better defense?
107 unearned runs? Geesh! Worst in last century? That tells the story.
The only other problem is Swinging everytime up for the Homerun. I get sick of it. I think in several games we lost, if hitters just learned to dink out singles, much like Hamilton did last night and stop HR swings, plus lower strikeout percentages, this team wins division this year.
The future is bright with Holland, Felix, et al, coming up. Even Hunter looked good the other night.
I agree in questioning the Hitting Coaches Agressive style. Few walks, High Strikeouts and high popups. Even our leadoff hitter comes up swinging for homeruns. Thats not his job! He is supposed to get on base.
Move Elvis to leadoff and Ian back several positions if he cannot layoff the homerun swing.
And if all batters continue the high SO/Walk percentages, then get a new hitting coach. We need strategic thinking at batting, as well as in the field and pitching.
Oh, and thanks for charts Evan. Nice comparison.
Hey mich mike, four games equals eight games, which is much better (need to look at W’s and L’s)
Evan, thanks for the time and effort that you spent to put together this post and those flippin’ sweet charts. Hopefully the second half of 2009 will also be better than the second half of 2008, and hopefully some of those offensive numbers will turn around as well. It would be nice to see year-end 2009 charts with a win-loss record that is better than the other three teams in the AL West. One thing is certain: watching the Rangers battle it out for the AL West is going to be much more exciting than watching them try and fail to get the wild card was last year.