MJH’s Top 40 Texas Rangers Prospects, (Nos. 21-40)

For what it’s worth, here is the back half of my top-40 prospects in the system through the halfway point of the 2009 season. Terse commentary follows each player listed. I intend to provide more detailed analysis when I get around to posting my top 20 in the next day or two.

Naturally, this is a highly subjective process and I’d feel alot better about it if I could just rank players into tiers, but — as anyone who has lived in the Dallas radio market for the past dozen years or so knows all too well– people love lists.

Ranking prospects is a product of weighing performance (stats) and projection (tools). I place a higher emphasis on tools and projectability than on production. Age vs. competition is a a very heavy factor, as is a demonstrated ability to learn and adjust. More than anything, a player’s track record comes into play for me in trying to understand his ability to address his weaknesses.

Graduates include Derek Holland, Elvis Andrus, Tommy Hunter, Doug Mathis and Taylor Teagarden. Players not under contract (Purke & Scheppers) were not considered. Players who have never appeared in a game (Jurickson Profar & Luis Sardinas) were not considered either.

These players were not oversights: Thomas Diamond, Joaquin Arias, Johnny Whittleman, Manny Pina, Richard Bleier, Matt Thompson and Mike Bianucci. All were left off the top 40 after careful consideration. Any of them could make me look bad in the next few months and I hope they do.

40) Jake Brigham (19 year old RHP: Class-A)
– Quick comeback from Tommy John surgery. Strikeout stuff including a big yakker curveball and a fastball that has picked up considerable velocity since he was drafted.

39) Craig Gentry (25 year old CF: Double-A)
– A truly outstanding defender and a plus-plus baserunner who is finally hitting, even showing a little pop. Old for his league.

38) Joseph Ortiz (18 year old LHP: Short Season-A)
– Tiny (5’7″) lefty has moxie and excellent stuff, with a 90ish fastball, a plus slider and changeup that is good enough to keep righties in line. Misses plenty of bats.

37) Leury Garcia (18 year old SS: Class-A)
– Lightning quick little (probably 5’6″) switch hitter with cannon arm holding his own at the plate in the Sally League.

36) Richard Alvarez (16 year old RHP: Rookie)
– For his age, he has a freakishly advanced approach to pitching with full arsenal. Has a feel for nuances of the craft. Should add velocity to 87ish fastball as he fills out his thin, 6’2″ frame.

35) Greg Golson (23 year old CF: Triple-A)
– I think he’s a 5th outfielder but maybe he can turn into Marlon Byrd someday.

34) Juan Grullon (19 year old LHP: Rookie)
– Lefty with nice repeatable delivery and coveted strikeout / grounder stuff.

33) Geuris Grullon (19 year old LHP: Short Season-A)
– Tall lefty with some of the most electric stuff in the system, but still learning how to harness it. Huge breakout candidate in a year or two.

32) Miguel De Los Santos (21 year old LHP: DSL)
– Visa problems have him and his 46-2 strikeout-to-HIT ratio stuck in the DSL. Ungodly curve and improving velocity. His visa problems are not the result of any sort of misconduct or fraud. Just a technical issue.

31) Guillermo Pimentel (19 year old RF: Rookie)
– Five-tool athlete with huge arm and rapidly growing approach at the plate. He’s come so far in two years that I’m bullish on continued improvement and he’s got the physical gifts to become a big time prospect.

30) Miguel Velazquez (21 year old RF: Short Season)
– Five-tool athlete with makeup issues. Has been suspended more than once and missed the entire 2008 seasoin. When he plays, he hits. Period. Potential star ability due to tools.

29) Mike Kirkman (22 year old LHP: Double-A)
– Lefty starter with power arsenal and has recaptured the command that made him special as a rookie back in 2005.

28) Braden Tullis (19 year old RHP: Short Season-A)
– Steal of the 2009 draft. 21/1 K/BB ratio through first 16.2 innings as a pro. Full starter’s arsenal and expected to add velocity.

27) Fabio Castillo (20 year old RHP: Class-A)
– Would be much higher if he was still a starter, but he seems to be flourishing in the pen. Explosive late life on fastball and results are finally starting to match up with ability.

26) Zach Phillips (22 year old LHP: Double-A)
– Stuff has played way up out of the pen this year. He still has his plus curve and he’s added velocity to his fastball. He looks like he’s going to have a future as a lefty reliever who can kill a couple of innings.

25) Guillermo Moscoso (25 year old RHP: Triple-A)
– Lots of life on the fastball, but he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher who must rack up the strikeouts to succeed. Splitter looks good. History of shoulder problems. I saw him quit and give in after a few bad breaks in one start with Frisco. That sticks with me, but it appears he hasn’t repeated that mistake since. Projects as a reliever for me.

24) Neil Ramirez (20 year old RHP: Class-A)
– Concerns about his maturity level almost eclipse his dazzling stuff including sharp 12-6 bender and lively 94 mph fastball. His commitment to game is a question mark.

23) Carlos Pimentel (19 year old RHP: Class-A)
– Solid three-pitch repertoire and has improved his K/BB ratio in each of this three pro seasons so far. He’s also demonstrated radical improvement against lefty hitters suggesting his change is coming along. He’s been extremely homer prone this year, which is just about the worst statistical indicator for a starting pitching prospect, but generally I like what I’m seeing here.

22) Marcus Lemon (21 year old SS: Double-A)
– Heady ballplayer with tremendous plate discipline and solid contact skills. More pop than I thought he’d have. Not real toolsy, but gets the job done.

21) Tim Smith (23 year old LF: Double-A)
– Pure hitter who can run well. Has proven himself in Texas League which is sort of my litmus test for college position players. Weak arm limits him to left field.