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MJH’s Top-40 Texas Rangers Prospects (Nos. 1-10)

Final installment.

Please: jump and read on.

10) Michael Main (20 year old RHP: Advanced-A)
– I am choosing to completely disregard Main’s results this year on the grounds that he has been stricken with what is still an undiagnosed illness (originally reported as mononucleosis).

At the same time, he’s losing too much developmental time for strange reasons and I’m beginning to get a strange feeling that fate is just not on his side. In other words, I am downgrading Main more for durability concerns than his disappointing results this season.

I’d talked to former Rangers pitching coordinator Rick Adair many times over the years, covering a lot of ground and a lot of players, but when he and I spoke about Main last fall, I’d never heard him talk about a pitcher with anything close to that enthusiasm.

During fall instructionals, Adair told me that he’d never seen a high school pitcher as polished as Main, except maybe Adam Wainwright. He told me that Main was, at that time, throwing “an extremely high percentage” of major league quality pitches.

I’ve seen Main myself. His mid-90′s fastball is extremely lively, but he has a tendency to leave it up in the zone. His curve has plus-plus, 12-6 action.

The truth of the matter is that the gap between Main’s stuff and Beavan’s is enormous. But as Woody Allen once said, eighty percent of success is showing up. Beavan does, Main doesn’t.

Main is done for the year. He has been sent home to Florida and won’t be called back to Surprise until August. There’s no reason that a healthy Michael Main can’t be at the top of this list a year from now.

9) Robbie Ross (20 year old LHP: Short Season-A)
– You don’t need to see Robbie Ross pitch to see that his stuff is outstanding right now. The 2008 second rounder is getting 6.20 ground ball outs for every one in the air and he’s averaging 13.86 strikeouts per nine through his first 25.1 professional innings. He’s held the league to a .234 batting average. Oh, and his K/BB ratio is 6.50. That just blows my mind.

Ross commands a 90-94 mph fastball with late life and a plus slider. As with virtually all high school pitchers, he needs to develop a change, but early reports on that offering are promising. Catcher Vin DiFazio says it’s dropping off the table.

I happened to see Ross’s first appearance in Surprise this spring and I was pleasantly surprised with the life on his fastball, but what really got my attention was his aggressive nature on the mound. He reminded me of John Danks in that way. Very tough, very competitive and very intense. He’s humble and focused on work. In other words, he’s got the sort of makeup necessary for continued success. Ross had an extremely strong spring that carried straight into extended and through the first month of NWL play, where he’s been the league’s most dominating pitcher.

Blake Beavan (20 year old RHP: Double-A)
– Nobody would have guessed two years ago when he was drafted that Blake Beavan would come to be known more for his coachability than his stuff, but the fact is that he’s in the Texas League just a couple of calendar years since his high school prom not because of dazzling stuff, but because he’s been receptive to coaching and had the pitchability to overcome some shortcomings in his repertoire.

Beavan’s velocity is down from where it was when he was drafted, the result of a necessary alteration to his then-dangerous mechanics. His slider isn’t what he famously cracked it up to be either, also probably the result in a change to his mechanics.

The big question on Beavan is whether he’ll get it back or figure out how to continue to succeed without mid-90′s cheese or the best slider he’s ever seen.

I say he probably will because Beavan has one thing going for him that I absolutely love to see in a prospect. A proven ability to learn and adjust. I can’t overstate how important that is to me.

Here’s an example: last year, when Beavan made his pro debut with Clinton, he was just beginning to work on a changeup. He didn’t throw one (or need one) in high school.

While he held Midwest League righties to a .207 / .238 / .349 line, left-handed hitters got to him at a 263 / .303 / .387 rate. Still good, but a meaningfully divergent split.

This year, Beavan has focused on developing — and trusting — his changeup. The results? He actually reversed the splits, becoming remarkably stronger against lefties in the Cal League.

With Clinton last year, Beavan posted a 3.47 ERA in nine starts before the All-Star break, striking out 22 hitters in 46.2 innings and opponents hit .262 against him. In 14 starts after the All-Star break, he posted a 1.68 ERA while holding opponents to a .214 batting average and dramatically improving his K rate (51 in 75 innings).

With Bakersfield this year, more of the same. With each passing month, he got better across the board. In four April starts, he had an ERA of 5.48 and got hit at a .274 clip while fanning 17 in 21.1 innings. In six May starts, he lowered his ERA to 4.26 and in June, he whittled it all the way down to 2.57 while limiting opponents to a .212 batting average and fanning almost a hitter per inning.

Through 34.2 innings in the Texas League, Blake Beavan has walked four. As always, the command is there. But he’s also allowed 47 hits (.322 opponents average) and fanned just 14. Let’s check back at the end of August to see what he did that month. If he’s the player I think he is, you’ll see radical improvement.

7) Kasey Kiker (21 year old LHP: Double-A)
– There are some who think that Kasey Kiker’s dominance of the Texas League is a smoke and mirrors act — maybe even an accident — but I’m not one of them. The league leader in strikeouts and among the leaders in ERA, Kiker — in my opinion — has an extremely advanced idea of what he’s doing out there. Yes, his velocity has been “down” (normally sitting 89-91 mph with his fastball) but I’ve seen him a couple of times and on both occasions, he’ll pop a 94 or even a 96. And then another one an inning later.

Kiker will bust a hitter inside (actually hitting them too often), but he’ll follow the high-and-tight cheese with offspeed stuff away and he has the command to drop either his curve or his change in for an easy strike on the outside corner once he’s backed a guy off the plate by an inch or two.

In my glass-half-full analysis of Kiker, he has an uncanny feel for changing speeds. On one occasion, I saw him hit every number on the gun between 77 and 94. Literally, every single one, making him very unpredictable. Personally, I think he does this on purpose and it’s a big reason that he’s holding the Texas League to a .219 batting average this year.

Kiker’s change is actually better than his curve right now. He seems to be just as likely to throw either one to a lefty or righty. Once again, unpredictable. Like Ross, Kiker is extremely competitive and it shows.

For me, this was going to be a huge year for Kiker. I wanted to see him post up and show some consistency. He had two bumpy outings in June, but otherwise he’s done the job so far. In my book, Kiker has improved his stock more than any other player in the system this year.

6) Max Ramirez (24 year old C: Triple-A)
– I’ll keep this one short and sweet. For my money, still the best all-around hitter in the Rangers system and I think he’ll be an above-average big league DH / backup catcher in the next year or so. I’m undeterred by his lackluster numbers this year because he was trying to play through a wrist injury.

5) Julio Borbon (23 year old CF: Triple-A)
– Carl Crawford? Juan Pierre? Tom Goodwin? People spend a lot of time trying to figure out what Borbon projects to be as a big leaguer. I’ve killed dozens of hours on this topic myself. The truth is that I don’t know.

What I do know is that Borbon is a smart kid, a phenomenal athlete and has demonstrated an ability to improve with instruction.

I believe that he’ll be an outstanding center fielder for the Rangers for many years to come and will remind everyone that it wasn’t a coincidence that the winning Rangers clubs of the 90′s featured center fielders who covered a ton of ground.

4) Wilmer Font (19 year old RHP: Class-A)
– For me, Wilmer Font just might better natural stuff than Nefali Feliz. The big boy brings high-90′s cheese and I’ve like what I’ve seen of his curveball which showed enormous promise two years ago and has now become a very solid offering with plus potential. He’s an imposing presence on the mound and he is clearly beginning to comprehend the nuances of pitching.

Font definitely has the physical ability to be a true top of the rotation starter and he’s moving towards becoming a pitcher instead of just a great big kid with a howitzer for an arm. The sky is the limit.

3) Justin Smoak (22 year old 1B: Triple-A)
– The positives are obvious and well documented. I’m not going to waste time with them here. Instead, I’m going to talk about the one flaw in Justin Smoak’s game. The only one.

He hit .196 / .268 / .314 against lefties in the Texas League. He’s going to be a big leaguer, and soon, but right now, I can’t tell you he’s going to be an everyday player.

He didn’t hit lefties in the MWL either (.231 / .333 / .385), though I didn’t pay much attention to that at the time because it was such a small sample. After his tour of the Texas League, I began to consider the possibility that it was evidence. And while he hit .317 / .404 / .622 against lefties in college, that was a far cry from the .413 / .551 / .819 he posted against right-handed pitchers.

In both college and pro action, you see that Smoak’s K/BB ratios against lefies are much, much worse than they are against righties, suggesting that the weaker lines are not merely a matter of coincidence or bad luck. He’s a much different hitter from the right side facing southpaws.

At South Carolina, Smoak drew 12 walks and struck out nine times in 82 at-bats against lefties. Fine. But then you look at the ratio against righties and you see a huge divergence: 45 walks and 19 strikeouts in 155 at-bats. He was more than twice as likely to walk against a righty.

With Frisco this year, he drew four walks and fanned nine times in 51 at-bats against lefties while drawing 35 walks and striking out 26 times in 132 at-bats against righties.

Smoak is going to tear up right handed pitchers in the big leagues. That’s pretty safe to say. The extent to which he can solve lefties will determine if he’s going to be a perennial All Star, a solid everyday player with a notable flaw or a platoon guy.

2) Neftali Feliz (21 year old RHP: Triple-A)
– I’ve said many times that I think Feliz is a closer, not a starter and I still feel that way (though I pray I’m wrong about that). This, more than anything, is why I can’t make him the top prospect in the system. Though he is clearly one of the most naturally gifted pitchers to come through this system — or any system — in many years, that alone doesn’t make him a future ace starter.

1) Martin Perez (18 year old LHP: Class-A)
– I’ll just lay it right out there and admit that I am so taken with everything about this kid that I’m unable to be fully objective about him. OK? Feel free to dismiss my opinion on those grounds.

Having said that, I feel that way for a reason. Perez is about the most complete pitcher in the system at age 18. His fastball — 91 – 94 mph — has plus movement and he can command it. His bender is plus-plus and he can command it. When I saw him unleash a diving turnover changeup in a spring training game in Surprise this year, I nearly wet my pants (so I’m hardly shocked that he’s held Sally League righties to a .225 / .290 / .325 line this year).

And the results match up with the ability.

Perez is special. He knows it and he knows you know it. The only thing that can stop him is health and there’s no reason to think that it will.