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Armchair GM Roundtable: Trade Deadline Edition

Back by popular demand, another mind-tingling edition of Armchair Roundtable and once again it’s huge.

Yesterday morning, I assembled Our Leader (Evan Grant), the Godfather (Jamey Newberg: The Newberg Report), and The Wonder Kid (Joey Matschulat, founder of Baseball Time in Arlington) in a chat room to kick around the Rangers options at the trade deadline.

Make the jump for an explosive edition of Armchair Roundtable where I think we manage to illustrate just how difficult the decisions will be for the Rangers as they engage in trade discussions this week.

Plus, we find out what kind of ice cream Jamey, Evan and Gerry Fraley favor.

Evan, of course, needs no introduction. He’s a BBWAA legend with ridiculous journalistic and clubhouse cred. Jamey doesn’t need one either, but here it is: he basically invented the independent, fan-based baseball blog — not just for the Rangers, or D/FWb but in all of sports — and has set the standard by which all other sports blogs have been measured ever since. His missives are followed closely not only by Rangers fans, but by executives and journalists throughout the great game from coast-to-coast.

And that brings us to Joey Matschulat, who is just about to graduate from UT-Tyler. Matschulat is a spectacular talent, both as a writer and as a baseball analyst. When I first came across Baseball Time in Arlington several years ago, I quickly realized that he was about to change the game. In my opinion, Joey is reinventing the role of baseball columnist in the new media age. I just hope that the people who are at the forefront of molding sports coverage in the new media age (and I’m looking at you Wick) recognize the need to cultivate talent like his.

I, of course, am a hyperbolic stooge for Rangers management according to internet reports. I am also that most loathesome of creatures, a trial lawyer. Feel free to hate me for either of those reasons, or any others you might come up with on your own.
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MJH: Let’s get it on…. Am I the only one for whom Saturday night killed the idea of going after Halladay…or Kazmir? Or are you guys thinking that the Rangers should go in for both a starter and a DH?

Evan Grant: Nope. Give me Halladay. And I’m content to take my chances. As is, this team is 9-11 in games started by guys who rank in the top 10 in ERA in both leagues. The offense may be not up to expectations, but still, they beat both Beckett and Halladay in a four-day span.

Jamey Newberg: I’m in for getting a controllable DH. On the starter, I’m in if it’s a tier two starter for tier two prospect(s).

Jamey Newberg: Just can’t believe Halladay would come here.

Joey Matschulat: Frankly, I’m not sure there’s ever been much of a chance of getting Halladay.

MJH: Agreed that he probably wouldn’t come here. But set that aside for the moment.

Evan Grant: Jamey, I reported earlier in the week in the live blog, that I’ve been told Halladay would not reject a trade here.

MJH: And are you in a position to elaborate on that story Evan?

Jamey Newberg: And I don’t want Kazmir for what it would take.

MJH: Jamey: Are you thinking that Kazmir is likely sliding towards a steep decline based on the last two seasons?

Jamey Newberg: I think the steep decline is already underway.

MJH: Me too. Not interested. There are a lot of signs that he’s about done.

Jamey Newberg: He’s useful but TB historically wants too much, and they will here for sure.

Joey Matschulat: I’m in for Halladay if “the price” is right, of course, but I’m not sure you’re going to find a right price … alluding to Jamey’s Mitch Moreland/Omar Poveda for Josh Willingham offer, that’s clearly something you do, but by all indications guys in the vein of Nick Johnson are going to require too much talent.

Jamey Newberg: Ok, setting aside the Halladay veto hammer, three weeks ago I proposed:

a. either Neftali Feliz and Mitch Moreland . . . or Justin Smoak (or Chris Davis) and Blake Beavan (or Tommy Hunter)
b. Taylor Teagarden
c. Wilmer Font or Wilfredo Boscan or Guillermo Moscoso or Omar Poveda
d. Engel Beltre or Mike Bianucci or Jose Vallejo or Joaquin Arias or Marcus Lemon

And we get Jason Frasor back.

I still do that deal (say, Feliz, Moreland, Teagarden, Font, and Beltre for Halladay and Frasor), but I don’t think it matches up with what Philly will eventually do.

Evan Grant: Rangers are going to have to go Smoak and Holland or Feliz plus. I do it.

MJH: Evan: what if they want Perez too?

Evan Grant: No, they can have two of the “untouchable” four. No more. And yes, I’m in. I’d prefer to do Feliz over Holland.

Jamey Newberg: Wait — Evan, it would take Smoak, plus Holland or Feliz, and more, and you’re in?

MJH: Before Saturday night’s debacle, I would have been OK with Feliz, Smoak and Poveda or Beavan. But not Perez, Smoak and Poveda or Beavan.

Jamey Newberg: Wow.

Evan Grant: My deal: Smoak, Feliz, Poveda/Boscan/Kiker/Ross and a low level position throw-in.

MJH: Joey: Earlier, you mentioned that you’d be interested in Halladay for the “right price.” Where do you draw the line?

Jamey Newberg: Yeah, Joey — give me some company on this.

Joey Matschulat: Holland, Teagarden/Saltalamacchia, Boscan/Poveda and Moreland is probably where I draw the line. As I’ve written before, I think it takes substantially more (Smoak/Holland/Teagarden/Font) to get a deal done. This team has major holes and while Halladay would be an immense shot in the arm, I don’t think he gives you assurances of getting over the top.

Evan Grant: He is an ace. I repeat he is a bonafide ace. He changes everything. And let’s not forget that if the Angels get him – and they are serious – then you are looking at having long-shot chances in 2010, too.

Jamey Newberg: Aree with that. But I don’t give up Feliz, Smoak, Holland, Perez, Font, Ross, Mike Maddux, and the Sonic Girl just to get him. Even if he’s a bonafide ace. And even if LAAA is in on him.

Evan Grant: Whoa. I’m talking about four players. Feliz and Smoak plus one of the pitchers from the slash group and a lower-level player. It’s what it will take.

Evan Grant: Jamey, is Feliz GOING to be an ace?

Jamey Newberg: No. And therefore, I would trade him in a package for Doc.

MJH: Is Justin Smoak Mark Teixeira or Lyle Overbay?

Jamey Newberg: Closer to the former, by a lot.

Evan Grant: He might be Tex.

MJH: Wrong. Trip Somers and I already figured it out. He’s closer to Overbay.

Evan Grant: But I still believe Chris Davis is going to be fine. And if Chris Davis is fine and you give up a good player to get a great pitcher, is that not worth it, especially if you don’t necessarily hurt yourself that much at 1B?

Jamey Newberg: That’s the Adrian Gonzalez mindset, Evan. Trade one of them, fine. But do it like Boston is doing with Buchholz.

MJH: No Jamey. It’s not like Adrian: Adam Eaton is not Roy Halladay.

Jamey Newberg: Crud. You’re right.

Evan Grant: Exactly, MJH.

Jamey Newberg: How many times have we seen that Buchholz is untouchable? . . . . until Victor became available.

MJH: I would have been fine with trading John Danks for Josh Beckett. But not Brandon McCarthy. You don’t see many guys in the Beckett / Halladay stratosphere become available. When it happens, you gotta make your best effort to get it done.

Jamey Newberg: That’s where I am, too, Mike.

Jamey Newberg: But we’re not talking about Danks. We’re talking about Danks plus Smoak.

Evan Grant: If the Rangers get Halladay, they have a much better shot at winning in 2009. And they become, in my mind, the favorites for 2010. OK, guy’s lets simplify here. What is the single most important aspect a contending team could have. And the hardest to find?

MJH: Do any of you see another starter potentially available who you think would be worth the trouble?

Jamey Newberg: Mike, what’s your top offer?

MJH: Feliz, Smoak and either Beavan or Poveda; or Feliz, Teagarden, Poveda / Beavan and a real fringy guy with upside. Somebody down low in the system. Toronto has been patching it together at catcher with Zaunie and Rod Barajas. They might want a young catcher in the deal.

Jamey Newberg: OK, that looks like my deal, though I added Moreland and was getting Frasor back.

Evan Grant: Mike, not including Smoak doesn’t get it done, unless you go with both Feliz and Holland. Doesn’t Toronto have Arrencibia on the way?

Jamey Newberg: Yes. Similar to Teagarden.

MJH: My alternative was in the event that Toronto wanted a catcher in the deal. If they don’t, then they don’t and Smoak would go along with Feliz. This would all be a little easier if Matt Harrison and Michael Main were healthy and pitching up to capabilities. It wouldn’t make it seem like these deals would deplete the system quite so much.

Jamey Newberg: Do you both agree that if we ever put Feliz and Smoak on the table, this would already be done and we’d be asking whether Doc would agree?

MJH: The stories say they asked for four and Texas countered with two. My guess is that Feliz & Smoak have already been offered.

Evan Grant: I think Rangers would certainly be as much in the mix as Philadelphia.

Joey Matschulat: All three of us agree on that, Jamey. Mike, referring back to something you stated earlier, did Saturday night’s game really alter our perceptions of this team that greatly where we might be disinclined to pursue playoff-bolstering players via trade? Is it that it was the freakin’ Royals that embarrassed them that makes it stand out above the rest?

MJH: No, it was that Luke Hochevar so thoroughly illustrated that you don’t even have to throw strikes to get ahead of the Rangers. Overreaction in disgust, but it’s hard to fathom how a lineup with that mentality can win regardless of the pitching.

Evan Grant: By the way, Hamilton is sitting today [Sunday]. The offense is a concern, granted, but let’s not forget they beat BECKETT AND GREINKE in the four days prior.

MJH: I know… Those guys throw strikes. Which is evidently the wrong approach to pitching to the Rangers.

Jamey Newberg: Which just proves that the talent is all there. The approach is brutal.

Jamey Newberg: Against Saunders/Weaver/Kazmir/Price earlier this month, this lineup hit .307/.389/.606.

MJH: Is there another starter out there you think you’d like to take a flyer on? Doug Davis perhaps? If just to take the heat off of Holland.

Jamey Newberg: I’d take Correia over Davis.

MJH: Joey? Correia, Davis, Carl Pavano…Cliff Lee?

Joey Matschulat: I know you’re not on the same page with me on Cliff Lee, Mike, but he greatly intrigues me. Ground ball pitcher whose value isn’t wholly tied into his velocity (90-91 mph) and whom I think would come cheaper than Halladay by a decent bit (assuming you think it takes two of Feliz/Smoak/Holland/Perez to swing a Halladay deal, when it might only take one of the three to swing a Lee deal), not to mention the more palatable financials.

Evan Grant: There is not another starter out there that I would give up one of the Big Four for. Offer a minor league prospect straight up for Davis, and I’d be happy. Doug can pitch in this park.

Jamey Newberg: FWIW, Evan, I don’t give up one of the big four, either.

MJH: Poveda and Moreland ought to be enough for Davis. Would ya?

Evan Grant: Yes. But only if Halladay deal doesn’t happen.

Jamey Newberg: That’s the same pair I proposed for Willingham; I’d take Willingham before Correia, but sure.

Evan Grant: My problem with Cliff Lee, Joey, is that bad outing on Opening Day. I know it was a long-time ago, but it does raise some red flags here.

Jamey Newberg: Cliff scares me.

MJH: I just can’t go Big-4 for Cliff Lee. Halladay is a special case. He’s all-time.

Jamey Newberg: Same here. BTW: on the Lee/RBIA subject…and Davis being able to pitch here…..Correia on 6-27: 7-5-3-3-1-9

MJH: OK. Let’s address the DH position. There are plenty of DH’s on the market. How does Texas NOT get one?

Jamey Newberg: Who’s with me on Willingham as the guy? Inexpensive, OBP guy, kills lefties, controllable (and tradeable) through 2010.

MJH: I think he’d be a nice addition. Price?

Evan Grant: And what are the Rangers giving up for him?

Jamey Newberg: I suggested Poveda/Moreland but trust that won’t be enough

Joey Matschulat: Willingham is actually controllable through 2011 as far as I can tell, Jamey (citing Cot’s)…I think he goes a respectable way towards helping address this offense’s BB/K inefficiency, but he’s not going to be inexpensive much longer and I don’t know how much that impacts the front office’s thinking.

MJH: Cheaper than Dunn or Johnson both in dollars and in prospects, I would guess. And arguably a better fit for this lineup.

Jamey Newberg: yep

MJH: Poveda and Boscan?

Jamey Newberg: Done.

Jamey Newberg: And probably still not enough.

Evan Grant: But now you are getting into Feliz, Smoak, Poveda, Boscan Moreland and another prospect. Now you are dipping into the farm system’s strength.

Evan Grant: I do not take my eyes off Halladay until told no.

Joey Matschulat: By the way, regarding the Rangers’ 2009 offensive BB/K ratio — it currently sits at 0.37, the worst mark in the AL and the second-worst mark in baseball (Giants are at 0.30 as a team, which is almost unfathomable). Of the 79 major league teams that have scored 800 runs in a season since the 2000 season, only two have done so with team BB/K ratios lower than 0.44. Willingham helps, but something is going to have to change on a larger scale with this offense.

Jamey Newberg: Even if he’s a Blue Jay at this time of day on the 31st?

Evan Grant: I am going to have to be out of Halladay altogether before I move on to something else.

Evan Grant: He’s THAT good. That important. And I don’t divert prospects from that deal.

MJH: Not to worry Jamey. The Pimp says that he’s pulling Roy off the market on the 28th, right?

Jamey Newberg: Real chance we leave something useful on the table in that case, and don’t get Doc.

Evan Grant: Yes Mike.

Jamey Newberg: MJH, J.P. said that “deadline” is soft

Jamey Newberg: Losing Poveda and Boscan for Willingham wouldn’t kill a Doc deal.

MJH: I was joking. How that — or his bit about not allowing a window to discuss an extension — helps him, I don’t understand.

Evan Grant: Useful isn’t good enough. Useful, to me, is Baines. Need a game changer. Halladay = Game changer.

MJH: Jamey’s right. There are replacement parts for either of those guys.

Jamey Newberg: Evan, who is saying Willingham at the expense of Doc?

Evan Grant: That’s just me.

MJH: But Evan, if you ARE going to do that, don’t you also want to make the most of the decision to go for it? Don’t they also owe it to themselves to give the lineup a shot in the arm?

Jamey Newberg: You think Poveda, Moreland, and Boscan are names we have to hoard until we know TOR isn’t dealing?

MJH: By the way: Who would have thought that a pitcher jusst might reject a trade here because he thinks that he won’t get enough run support?

Evan Grant: Good points, but I just don’t want to give away TOO much.

Jamey Newberg: Imagine Doc stepping into the clubhouse and speaking for 30 seconds on how pitchers gameplan our offense.

MJH: You make a Roy Halladay deal to create a two-year window. You don’t mess with the window by pussyfooting it.

Joey Matschulat: Go big or don’t go at all.

Evan Grant: OK. I’ll concede that. If you think you can make both deals without crippling the system, then do it. But I’m not making this deal to create a two-year window. I’m making it to open a long-term window earlier than expected. I certainly do not want to give up the farm entirely.

Jamey Newberg: Which is why I don’t give up two of the Big Four, even if “I have to.”

MJH: Evan: With Padilla, Blalock, Byrd, Cat, Benoit, Vizquel and Eddie coming off the payroll next year, won’t the payroll be down about $8 million even with salary increases to Michael Young, Kinsler and Hamilton coming?

Evan Grant: Mike, I think your math is about right. But you haven’t factored in raises for Frankie and C.J.

Evan Grant: But, Jamey, you are talking circles. Either you make Halladay and Willingham or you don’t make either. So which is it?

Jamey Newberg: I think the circular talk is contagious. You don’t want to “give up the farm entirely” but will do whatever it takes to get Doc. I make the Willingham deal whether I can get Doc or not.

MJH: Here we go…. Duck Joey!

Joey Matschulat: *ducks*

Jamey Newberg: I trade one of the Big Four for Doc, plus plenty else, but not two of them.

Jamey Newberg: How about that Robbie Ross? Best second-round pick we’ve made in years!

Evan Grant: Why, Jamey? Why go add a DH piece if you can get Halladay? Isn’t that Baines?

Jamey Newberg: Willingham is not Baines because he won’t cost what Baines cost. Not close. Baines cost us Martin Perez and a hitter.

Evan Grant: How DO YOU KNOW what Poveda or Perez is going to be? How did they know what Wilson Alvarez was going to be?

Jamey Newberg: Ask Tom Grieve that Q when you see him today. He has said repeatedly (and recently) that Sosa wasn’t the mistake. Alvarez was. And they knew it right away.

MJH: Please don’t mention Martin Perez and Wilson Alvarez in the same sentence again. I’ll throw you out of the room, head first. Them’s the house rules.

Jamey Newberg: Joey, I’m now ducking with ya.

MJH: Let’s attempt to steer this towards a less controversial area. Money.

Evan Grant: OK. Who wants to give me some?

MJH: Wick Allison

MJH: Going back to my previous question to Evan, the point I’m tying to make is that they really do have about 25-30% of the current payroll coming off next year.

Evan Grant: What about $$$. The Rangers don’t have any. They could get all the way tothe point of having a deal done and still not be able to complete it.

MJH: Are you saying we’re looking at a $35 million payroll next year? With $16 million going to Michael Young, $11 going to Millwood and $5 million going to Kinsler?

Evan Grant: I’d say the savings is about $5-7 million. But with new owners – or, god forbid MLB – running the team, it might go to $35-40 million. Michael will only make $11 next year.

MJH: I’ve done some math in my head — which is dangerous — but it seems like they could add Halladay and still have a lower payroll on opening day next year than the payroll on opening day this year. $30 million comes off: Padilla (-$12 million), Blalock (-$6.5 million), Byrd (-$3.5 million), Benoit (-$3.5 million), Cat (-$2 million), Omar (-$1 million), Eddie (-$1 million), Andruw ($1 million).

Joey Matschulat: And regarding the completion of a deal, Evan, how much would it take to convince Halladay to waive his NTC if he demands enticements to come here? $1M? $2M? More? That stretches things even further with respect to 2009.

MJH: OK. So we’ve wasted an hour on an impossibility.

Evan Grant: Hamilton will jump above $2 million, C.J. probably above $3, Frankie same. Salty could be a Super Two.

MJH: So now let’s address this from the point of view that a Halladay deal can’t happen because of money and / or he won’t agree to come here. Whatever the reason, he’s off the table. Now what do you do? Do you try to add Correia or Davis and Willingham? Or is that just pissing in the wind?

Evan Grant: Well, if Willingham is controllable and won’t cost you an arm and a leg and it’s getting a leg up on fixing the offense for next year, I’m getting less and less opposed to it.

MJH: OK: let’s say that they can have both Davis or Correia and Willingham, and they lose Blake Beavan, Omar Poveda, Doug Mathis, Mitch Moreland and Wilfredo Boscan in the process. Who’s in for that?

Jamey Newberg: Me, but I don’t think the Correia half costs as much as that would suggest.

Evan Grant: I think I pass. Four pitching prospects. I suspect two of them will be servicable big leaguers.

Joey Matschulat: I’m in.

Jamey Newberg: Profling: Evan wants the big splash but not the smaller improvements. Joey and I are comfortable with the latter.

Evan Grant: I think smaller improvements don’t get it done and certainly don’t make you a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs.

MJH: I don’t think that the smaller improvements are enough to get it done this year and so why bother?

Jamey Newberg: Correia and Willingham are not just about ‘09.

Evan Grant: I really don’t have much interest in Correia.

Jamey Newberg: And again, I’m not against going after Doc as well. Just not for Two of the Guys.

Jamey Newberg: Evan, why aren’t you interested in Correia?

MJH: Willingham is a DH only here. So next spring, you have Willingham, Davis, Smoak, Max Ramirez and Moreland coming right behind them.

Jamey Newberg: Willingham, if his 400 OBP ever becomes extraneous, will be tradeable at his contract level.

Joey Matschulat: Well, I’ve said “go big or don’t go at all” numerous times … I’m more interested in Willingham than Correia or Davis, personally. You want to add guys who excel in some aspect of the game if you’re going to pull the trigger.

Jamey Newberg: Correia: seven QS’s in his last 10 starts

Evan Grant: Correia has a 4.84 ERA this year, pitching in a pitchers park. IHe has a 4.80 ERA as a starter for his career. Seven starts don’t sell me on a guy, especially one who allowed eight runs in 3.1 innings the last time out.

Jamey Newberg: Yeah, it was 4.34 before the last start.

Evan Grant: 4.34 in the most extreme pitchers’ park in the majors? No thanks.

MJH: I’ll take a Doug Davis rental before Correia. Plus, I’m not sure I want JD talking to Kevin Towers anymore. It didn’t go so well for Texas the last time they did.

Jamey Newberg: Yeah, ignore me. I was seduced by the game Correia threw in our pitchers’ park. Like Oliver Perez once upon a time.

MJH: Has Chris Davis restored trade value this month?

Joey Matschulat: No.

MJH: Or is he now been stamped with “swing too long” to the extent he’ll never be sought after?

Jamey Newberg: I bet he’s drawing plenty of trade interest. But for 30 cents on the dollar.

Joey Matschulat: Selling on Davis now would be the epitome of selling low. I’m not completely averse to the idea of trading him at some point down the line if the deal is right (then again, who is?), but it would be very silly to do so now.

Evan Grant: Even if Davis ends up being a .250 hitter, he’ll have big power and he’s a Gold Glove first baseman. Has anybody in majors played better D than him this year?

Joey Matschulat: Wait, Evan, better defense at any position or just at first base?

Evan Grant: At first.

Jamey Newberg: I would trade for Davis if I were any one of 20 other clubs.

Jamey Newberg: Chris, that is.

MJH: But Texas can’t even think about trading Davis right now. There’s a pretty sizable chance that he’s right back to being one of the most productive young power hitters in baseball within nine months.

Evan Grant: Yeah. I was seduced by that Ollie Perez game, too. What’s he done? Inconsistent at best. Awful most of the time.

Jamey Newberg: That’s my point, Evan. Forget what I said about Correia.

Evan Grant: But I was agreeing with you about being seduced. It happens. I’m kinda off Lee based on one start, too.

Jamey Newberg: MJH, agree: In a different kind of way, CD almost has to be untouchable right now.

MJH: OK, lighting round. Sorry to all of you Kevin Correia fans out there.

MJH: Each of you name one guy you think would be worth the trouble but who we haven’t talked about already. And what you’d be willing to give up to get him.

Evan Grant: I might give up three of the Big Three in a deal for Haren.

Jamey Newberg: Haren has to be untouchable, no?

Evan Grant: I’m only looking big, big, big.

Evan Grant: Certainly, you would think Haren is untouchable, but if you started with Smoak, Holland and Perez, might you draw the D’backs interest.

Jamey Newberg: Not mine.

Joey Matschulat: If you’re gunning for a legitimate difference-maker…well, is there really anyone else who could conceivably be available that fits that definition? Oswalt has that star quality, I guess, but McLane’s not dealing him to an intrastate rival.

Jamey Newberg: I’d have interest in Takashi Saito. But Hank doesn’t get that done now.

Evan Grant: Saito? Why does this team need relief help?

Jamey Newberg: I think we’d be much better off if every RH’r behind Frankie were moved down one slot.

Evan Grant: I remind on Haren: Legitimate ace. Signed long term. Only 29.

Jamey Newberg: Love Haren. Love, love, love that guy. Not giving up those three.

Jamey Newberg: MJH, who’s your guy?

MJH: Sheff. He’d be practially free and he’s producing this year. And I’m thinking the Mets would be willing to take a flyer on one of the Rangers lower level Latin American guys with upside.

Evan Grant: Who for Sheff?

MJH: If the Rangers could get Doug Davis for Omar Poveda and Sheff for Carlos Pimentel, I wouldn’t mind.

Jamey Newberg: Evan, I’m all for being aggressive in July. We owe it to Michael and Milly and Marlon and everyone else. I want to see something done. But that’s too much for Haren, in my worthless opinion.

MJH: I could do Doug Davis and Sheffield rentals for next to nothing in terms of prospects.

Evan Grant: Jamey: That “we owe it. …” sentence sounded a lot like JFE and we don’t want you to go there.

Jamey Newberg: haha. I’m sure Gerry Fraley likes cookies’n'cream ice cream just like I do, but so be it.

Evan Grant: Fraley is a mint chocolate chip guy, like me.

Jamey Newberg: as am I — but that doesn’t mean I subscribe to Fraley’s point of view on things

Evan Grant: I’d do Sheff for Poveda and Davis for Boscan or the other way around. Or I’d be happy to substitute Willie Mosconi, er, Moscoso.

Joey Matschulat: Hated, hated, HATED the idea of going after Sheffield this winter, but that was at the $14M price tag. That certainly has worked out for NYM. I could buy into that, but I think it takes more than Melo.

Jamey Newberg: one thing Sheff would bring is some of that lineup swagger that has disappeared

Joey Matschulat: And the ability to not swing at pitches two feet outside.

MJH (12:24:38 PM): OK, my kids are throwing huge fits because they need lunch. I gotta check out. You guys feel free to carry on if you want.

Evan Grant: Sheff and I go way back. …. I’m gonna run, too. You dudes rock.

Jamey Newberg: Later.

Joey Matschulat: Same. My body isn’t accustomed to waking up before 11 a.m. on Sunday and I might go into shock soon if I don’t eat something. Great stuff, gentlemen, let’s do it again soon.

Jamey Newberg: Off to go dust off my Ollie Perez Padres jersey.

MJH: Thanks for the time boys. We’re clocking out after ninety-nine minutes, and at least seventy of them were pure gold.

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40 Comments to “Armchair GM Roundtable: Trade Deadline Edition”
  • Chris

    this is kinda hard to follow..

    You guys should get on iChat, or AolIM and record a video chat, or audio chat and post it…

  • becca

    favorite line:
    MJH: I know… Those guys throw strikes. Which is evidently the wrong approach to pitching to the Rangers.

  • scooper

    I thought this was great! I love you guys!
    I’m in on Halladay and Sheff. I’d give up 2 of the top 4 (preferably Feliz and Smoak). After that, pretty much whatever it takes. You guys make it sound like Sheffield wouldn’t cost much in terms of prospects or money. If that is the case, I’m all in (even more than Willingham). Personally, I think this lineup could use some swagger. I still believe that the talent is there, but I’m not so sure about the confidence. Sheff would bring that in a bushel basket! I didn’t like him in the off-season, but I do now. I think he would give us a lot of what Milton did last year.

  • scooper

    @becca: I agree! That is also a great point. Evan has discussed it before and it is obvious that one of our biggest weaknesses is swinging at bad pitches. We can hit strikes. This offense would be “fixed” if we would lay off of the bad pitches!

  • scooper

    @ehren(who isn’t here yet): but those are just more of my very un-original thoughts!

  • cameron

    I’d be in on Feliz and Smoak for Halladay.

    @becca – you’re right on best line.

  • Kinsler is Overrated

    This team is more than one or two players away from a pennant of even division title. They shouldn’t be giving up any top prospect for Halladay or anyone else. It is a year too early.

  • TK421

    Perez and Holland are my only untouchables. Trade any combo of 4 prospects for Halliday. Done.

  • Rossometown

    Here’s my feeling on why I don’t want to give up the farm for Halladay…

    In 3 years, we have 1 division title while we had Roy Halladay and we won 2 playoff games and didn’t get out of the first round. Justin Smoak is an all-star 1st baseman playing for under a million dollars, while Feliz is Toronto’s #2 starter with an ERA around 4, but a ton of strikeouts. Then you’ve got Beaven as their #5 rotation spot eating innings and saving the bullpen. Beltre flamed out and Moscoso is a decent middle reliever for them. Again, we won 2 playoff games and Halladay is now the ace for the Phils.

    Was it worth it?

    Opposite what if. Halladay never comes to Texas. We won 1 division title before 2010 and we won 1 playoff game. Smoak is an all-star 1st base/DH playing for under a mil. Feliz has helped solidify our rotation. Beaven was traded for a piece that helped win 2010. Moscoso is a key middle reliever for us and Beltre is on the verge of getting called up.

    What do you want?

  • TK421

    I want C. Davis at first. I don’t see Beavan being an innings eating horse at any part of a rotation.

  • thirdold

    Long chat = long response. I don’t understand why Sheet’s name doesn’t show up here even once…and I’m not one of these idiots who continually sends a moronic question to Sullivan’s mailbag asking if he’s going to take the mound in Arlington this season. When healthy (and I know that is a big question mark every season, not just coming off this surgery) he is the true ace that Evan speaks of. He’s going to be a lot cheaper than Halladay or Haren given his current circumstances and WE DON’T HAVE TO GIVE UP A SINGLE GUY ON THE FARM – no consideration of giving up 1st, 2nd OR 3rd tier prospects in this case – TO GET HIM (assuming of course we don’t lose someone in the rule 5 because of his taking of a roster spot.) You have to think we are going to be front and center in his decision making process once he starts negotiations and given the season these guys are putting together – he shouldn’t have any concerns over the competitiveness of this team going forward. Given the financial shortcomings of this organization and the implications of that on trade-line decisions right now, I have to think the opportunity to bring him into the fold this off-season, assuming he’s healthy, would be much better on the structure of our payroll for the remainder of this season, 2010 and beyond, than figuring out how to pay any of the other big names discussed above. I can’t think of another former free agent ever that has seemingly dropped off the national radar like he has, that could have as much of an impact as everyone could envision him having for any team and this is the biggest thing – would not only appear to be willing to come to the Rangers, but at this time it would appear the Rangers are the leader in the club house in acquiring him.

    The plan has always been 2010 (once there seemingly was a plan). That we’re in the playoff chase this season only makes the short and long term outlook that much better. I’ll make it clear that I’m always up for making the moves that will improve this club for the long term and some prospects will have to be traded or lost for nothing in return due to roster crunch in the coming years. In my opinion giving up any of the big 4 and likely some of the other less sure things like Ross, Boscan, Main, etc. on a rental – which is exactly what Halladay is even if it is for 1.5 seasons – is a mistake at this point. The entire discussion above and particularly Evan’s bent (still love ya Evan) is exactly what worries me about fans – and even with your media “credentials” I know you all are fans first. Given what has been built here – the Rangers legitimately have a shot at dominating this division and potentially the league for the next decade. Trading pieces that are under control and have the upsides of Halladays (Holland/Perez), Teixeiras (Smoak) and Riveras (Feliz – ok that’s a stretch and maybe he fits in the rotation down the line better anyway) is exactly how you take a very large window and shorten it considerably. The Braves and Yankees in the 90’s, the Rays now, the Red Sox, the Cardinals, the Twins, the Dodgers, even the Angels of late have all held onto their biggest prospects and it has worked out for them. When they’ve made decisions to make trades, sign questionable big free agents, etc. – they have all suffered. Stay the course. Please, please JD don’t cave into the immediate gratification sentiments – stay the course. The Cubs jumped into first place in their division this weekend with everyone else making moves or surging around them and they’ve been pretty injury plagued this season as well. We still have a very legitimate chance at the postseason with what we have here (and maybe a couple of minor tweaks) – don’t mortgage the farm on a short-term solution no matter how great that player is.

  • Jim

    Interesting stuff. I would love to have Halladay. I think he’s worth the big price. It’s a plus that you get him next year, also. Plus, I’m scared to death that the Angels end up with him, and we can forget it!

  • TK421

    Beltre is at least 3 years away from being on any verge at this point and look out that window for more Moscoso’s. Halliday that we can sign, for Feliz, Smoak, Beavan and Beltre or Moscoso would be a great haul.

  • thirdold

    Man that was longer than I thought it would be…my apologies.

  • Chris Hartman

    Great stuff. Two of the four for Halladay…Three of the four for Haren. I’m in on either. I still think Feldman, Hunter, or Teagarden may be used to replace one of the big four.

  • Mike

    Even,

    3 of the Big Four for Haren? Good grief.

    *Watches credibility fly out the window*

  • TK421

    2010 rotation
    Halliday
    Millwood
    Feldman
    Hunter
    Holland

    looks okay. My pessamistic side tells me not to count on Sheets or Harrison to be reliable for next year with the injuries. Halliday is a franchise changing player. Expensive but worth it.

  • Hightower

    Getting harder and harder to believe JD’s going to stand pat at the deadline this year.

  • Sean

    Nice Chat. I just hope we don’t end up like the Braves after Tex trade= top prospects gone, payroll up, no playoffs and bigtime player we traded for gone in less than a year and a half. Stick to plan, we are trying to be old school Braves and dominate for a decade.

  • thirdold

    @TK421: The key to all I wrote in my mind is “Halladay that we can sign”. I’m all in for giving up a lot if we can do that, but my opinion is there is virtually no chance he stays in Texas past the 2010 season if we make a deal for him. I know we get draft picks in that case, but how does that help the big league club for the next 3-5 years after he’s gone?

  • TK421

    Franchise changing. That’s the thing. If he could be signed to be the long term rotation leader. I love this time of year.

  • Tsing Sao

    - I’ll pass on Halladay
    - I’ll pass on Lee
    - I’ll pass on Correia
    - I’ll definitively do Willingham, Sheff or Davis

    run because you want to run, don’t run because you’re in panic…

  • Tom

    The only way a run at Halladay backfires is if he goes to the Angels. Daniels may need to stay interested to prevent that.

  • scooper

    There is nothing panicky about getting Halladay. He is the true Ace that you have to have in the playoffs. If he is willing to come here in the first place, why wouldn’t he be willing to stay? He is obviously not a guy that likes to move around a lot. If we are winning, why would he want to leave? Listen to him! At this point in his career, what he wants is to WIN! Don’t you think we would be willing to pay him? If we can’t pay the going price for an ace after the 2010 season, we are seriously screwed anyway! You don’t often have an opportunity to get a pitcher of his caliber. When you get the chance, you take it.

  • obagain

    From what I have seen toronto is asking for holland, feliz, smoak and perez.
    That is a no brainer no.
    rossometown has it right, we need to stand pat or make a small deal that could help us for a couple of years.
    I want to see us grow our own, I know guys like halliday dont come along often but when waqs the last time a true ace was traded to the eventual world series champs and he was the difference maker?
    He would make us better for sure but he wont help the offense and in the playoffs this offense gets shut down completely, we would be lucky to score 2 runs in the whole series.
    I want to let the kids play and see what happens, if they cant do it then so be it.
    We have gone the free agent route without success, we have made the deadline trade without success, we are so close lets see if the grow your own can be successful before blowing it up for the hopes of making the playoffs this year.

  • obagain

    scooper, this is why he would leave.
    We have no offense, we have no money to pay him.
    You dont think the yanks or boston are not going to drive his next contract thru the roof?

  • scooper

    @obagain: if they want all four, then that is a no-brainer. The boys up top were saying 2 and I would go for that. Holland probably won’t be an ACE next year, and maybe not the year after that. We have offense, but they are not even playing AVERAGE this year. The reasons you give for Halladay not staying, if they are true we are not winning anyway (and not winning is what would drive him away). And as far as our current offense being shut down in the playoffs – I’ll defer to Evan. We seem to do OK against strike-throwers. If you have an ACE, you have a chance.

  • scooper

    …and no offense and no money to pay him is more of a reason for him to refuse a trade in the first place. Our FUTURE is bright; it is our current status that is in question.

  • scooper

    looking back on what I wrote, here’s another one for you – even if Halladay leaves after a year and a half, we may have our homegrown Ace by then. At least we will be close and we will have had an opportunity to win for 2 years already. That experience will only help the young guys mature more quickly.

  • Terry

    Great stuff! Don’t know what JD will end up doing, but sure is fun to speculate. Thanks, guys, for sharing your thought processes.

  • obagain

    scooper, so you give up feliz, smoak, ross, TT and moreland.
    Halliday walks after a year and a half, feliz is a top closer in baseball then, smoak is hitting 300 with 30 hr and 130 rbi, ross is a year away from being a top of the rotation guy and TT is his normal self.
    Are you happy you gave all that up for a 1 1/2 year rental?
    Now lets say millwood is the old millwood when he returns, harrison doesnt pitch until late next year and is ineffective, McCarthy never pans out, davis is never the same when he is recalled, hank walks after this year as does jones.
    Padilla is gone after this year.
    What do you do for 2 starter to go with halliday?
    Who plays 1st?
    Who is your DH?
    These are all real possibilities.
    Do you really want to give up what we have for the hope that something special happens?
    What is we get halliday and the angels get lee?

  • RA

    Don’t much understand the interest in Willingham. Andruw Jones has been about as productive even hitting .220. I’d rather bet on Jones improving his average over the second half. If he hits .250, he’ll be as good as Willingham.

  • obagain

    scooper, on the money, if we keep using the farm to fill holes we can be cheap and competitive.

  • scooper

    @obagain: you are putting words in my mouth – I never said Ross, Teagarden or Moreland. On the blog post of Evan’s that asks for a specific offer, this is what I said:
    Feliz, Smoak, Poveda, Ramirez and a low-level (low class A or below) pitching prospect not named Ross or Perez.
    I also have in there that I would NOT trade both Smoak and Moreland (so I would trade Smoak because I can get more for him) and that I think Moreland will be our DH down the road.
    I also said that I would trade Feliz over Holland because I think Holland can become an Ace and I don’t think Feliz will.
    Also, you make a lot of assumptions that I simply don’t agree with! This is simply my opinion. You are more than welcome to your, also! What I don’t appreciate is you throwing out crap and acting like that is what I said.

  • scooper

    …and if we get Halladay and the Angels get Lee, I’d say we win!

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  • obagain

    Scooper, I know you wouldnt trade those guys but you wont get halliday with your package, they will want alot more.
    I am not putting words in your mouth, just giving opinions on what it will realistically take to land halliday.
    Other than millwood going back to his old version, all the other things are real or very realistic.
    McCarthy cant be counted on.
    Harrison may never be the same and if he is it will take 1 1/2 years.
    Padilla, hank and jones will all be gone after this year.
    So the rotation without a trade will be
    millwood
    feldman
    holland,
    we will have to find 2 starters to fill out the rotation.
    We have guys that could fill that roll but none have stepped forward yet.

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  • JCD

    I hope the Phillies get Halladay because that means they leave Lee alone. A deal for Lee doesn’t scare me nearly as much as a monster deal for Halladay. Evan is talking about Lee’s bad Opening Day start this year in Arlington, but you’re forgetting two things. (a) Halladay has a career of being bad here and (b) we can make an excuse for Lee’s performance rather easily. After retiring Kinsler, Young, Hamilton and Cruz on 11 pitches to start the game, Lee was NAILED with a wicked liner off the bat of Hank Blalock. Has everybody forgotten this? Four of the next five batters had hits, giving the Rangers a 4-0 lead, and I have to believe the injury had something to do with it.

    On top of that, Lee has made six starts against the Rangers’ potential playoff opponents this year: New York, Boston and Detroit. EVERY ONE of them were quality starts, giving up 11 earned runs in 42 innings. Take away Lee’s 7-run outing in Texas and he hasn’t given up more than four runs in any game this year – and his ERA dips under 3.00.

    Cliff Lee is a great pitcher on a bad team and the Rangers should go get him.

  • back back back

    Too much to give up for just a season and a half of Halladay, who would be gone to the highest bidder after 2010, book it.

    Why not wait til the offseason, ink a FA, and keep the prospects?

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