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Blogging on the Rangers from 33,000 Feet Just Because I Can: Couple of Quick Nuggets

SOMEWHERE ABOVE SOUTH CAROLINA – Good afternoon from another American Airlines flight equipped with the greatest invention since the Cuban Sandwich press – in-flight wireless service. I’m wingin’ my way to New York City to catch up with the Chris Davis-infused Rangers. Hoping to use my off night in NYC to see Inglorious Basterds.  And maybe hit one of the great delis the city has to offer.

Anyway, if you are going to use the in-flight wireless and if you are going to bill said usage to the company, you better at least use it for work. So here I am, blogging from the sky.

Heard two things last night on ESPN that really stuck with me and wanted your thoughts and input:

1. Concerning Pete Rose: Seems like everytime I meet somebody and tell them I’m a baseball writer, they ask if I think Pete Rose should be in the Hall of Fame. Everytime, I say “no.” I go on to explain that Rose willingly broke the most sanctified rule in baseball when he bet on the sport. He knew the risks. He must serve the punishment. Well, last night, when an interview with former Commissioner Fay Vincent aired, his words were these: “This is not about Pete Rose. It’s about the deterrent of the ban.”

Makes a lot of sense. Let Rose into the Hall – even 20 years after he was banned – and you open the door for reinstatement for anybody who might bet on the sport. Yeah, your career could be impacted, but come the right time and place, if you say your sorry, you could be reinstated and potentially even hold a position with a club. And ultimately, that’s why Rose must remain out of the game. The ban needs to remain the ultimate deterrent.

2. Concerning stealing bases: A lot of statheads view steals as unnecessary risks. If the percentage of success isn’t above 80, you dim your win probability. I’ve never agreed, but couldn’t quite explain why. Joe Morgan, however, did a good job of identifying all the peripherals the running game can impact. Makes pitcher nervous; changes defensive positioning; creates confusion among fielders. No, they can’t be measured with percentages, but they are tangible. Saw it first-hand a couple of weeks ago when Boston was in Arlington. The Red Sox are a pretty sound team, but when Julio Borbon and Elvis Andrus started bunting and using their speed, the Red Sox ended up out of place at least three times. It led to runs. The Angels seem to be fairly successful despite a running game that approaches madness. Los Angeles will send anybody at anytime and often runs itself into outs. More often than not, though, the Angels wind up taking extra bases and squeezing the most out of every scoring opportunity. ‘Course when you have a poor pitching staff, you have to sit back and wait for a three-run homer; when you have solid pitching, it makes more sense to play for one run at a time.

So, what are your thoughts on these subjects? Anything? Anyone?

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56 Comments to “Blogging on the Rangers from 33,000 Feet Just Because I Can: Couple of Quick Nuggets”
  • chadb

    …um, hello?

  • Hightower

    Well, on delis in NYC… Katz’s on Houston is super. Worth the trip downtown.

  • Evan Grant

    @Hightower: I’m thinking about trip to Katz’s, one of the few I’ve never been to. Just not sure what my scheduling is going to be like. We were delayed leaving Tampa by about an hour and are heading to JFK (there are no direct AA flights to LaGuardia) and then we may be fighting traffic into the city. So, we’ll see where we stand when we get there.

  • scottus

    You are gonna love that movie! a great guy movie, full of intrigue and tension.

  • Ehren

    Hey Evan! Hope the flight is treating you well.

    1. Rose should never be allowed in. Period. He knew the rule and even lied about it after the fact for YEARS!

    2. Don’t like stats very much. Steal as much as you can. Waiting to get batted into scoring position is like a slow death. Always make them sweat.

  • Ehren

    Maybe fighting traffic? Let us know how that goes. :D

  • Bill G

    Pete Rose should never get into the Hall. The steal is one of the great tools in baseball. It can do so many things to the mind of the other team and they are fun to watch.

  • Daniel

    @Evan: I’m with you on base stealing. I’m all for measuring everything that can be measured. I think there are a lot of times where conventional wisdom (e.g. making decisions with your “gut”) can lead to less than optimal decision-making, but there are also times when the numbers don’t reflect the totality of what’s going on.

    All you have to do is watch whoever the Rays are playing when Crawford and/or Upton get on base. (or the Rangers when Andrus, Kinsler, and Borbon get on base)

    I’d like to see a sabermetric analysis of how pitchers and fielders react with elite base stealers on base compared to, say, when David Ortiz or Benji Molina is on base.

  • Clinton V.

    Joe Morgan and “good job” are terms you don’t see together all that often.

  • d2 (squared)

    Please don’t use direct (there are no direct AA flights to LaGuardia) Use Nonstop. The Airlines use direct to confuse the flying public into thinking that they have a nonstop flight when in fact it makes three stops! There is just no change of planes.

    1 Where do you draw the line? I feel sorry for Pete but, agree with you.

    2. Running puts pressure on the other team. Pressure leads to mistakes.

    3. Katz’s is great

  • Rod in NC

    1. John Dowd said the same thing about the deterrent this morning on ESPN radio. Dowd said Lenny Dykstra said that if it wasn’t for the Rose ban, Dykstra would never have quit gambling or tried to get help. It was fascinating to listen to Dowd.

    2. If we’re going to cite anecdotal evidence, then one must acknowledge the other side of the coin, and we need go no farther back than Friday night in Tampa. Borbon gets thrown out stealing with Hamilton at the plate as the tying run. Rally killed.

    Determining the risk/reward of trying to steal a base is a lot more sophisticated than either anecdotes or a simple calculation of how many runs score or don’t score in a computer simulation. I personally don’t know what the breakover is (I hear it’s more like 70%, but regardless), but there MUST be one. If every runner who tries to steal gets thrown out, it hurts run scoring. If every runner is successful, it helps. So there must be a “tipping point” somewhere, and if you’re smart, like some of the people who run ballclubs (notice, I said some), you know that number.

  • Stephen R

    Evan, I don’t think anyone doubts that speed can put pressure on the defense. But even so, unless you are successful in about 75+ percent of the stolen base attempts, you ultimately do more harm than good. If you can steal bases at a high percentage, like Andrus, Kinsler, Cruz, or Borbon, then it is a tremendous weapon.

    But if you are getting caught half the time, you are simply hurting your team. Sure you are putting some pressure on the other team, but it is still not enough pressure to justify getting thrown out on the bases such a high percentage of the time.

    Now I think you can argue that maybe a player can be adding value to his team even when he steals bases successfully around 65 or 70 percent of the time. But even still, I think the point being made by Morgan and others is that you have to be successful a very high percentage of the time, or you are not really helping your team. I don’t think you can argue with that point. And sure, I think most people would agree that attempted steals cause defensive players to change their defensive positioning. But I’m not sure that this fact alone is so valuable that it means players should run more often, even when their chance of getting caught are greater than 30%.

  • Joe A

    Since 1919 everyone knew that if they were involved with a major league team and were caught betting on a game the punishment was quick, severe, and lasting. Rose knew it..he did it…he got caught. He and his supporters should stop whining.

    The ability to steal bases is a powerful weapon in a baseball game. If successful, it significantly increases your chances of scoring. Just the legtimate threat causes the other team to make adjustments from their preferred alignment and puts more pressure on the opposing pitcher. Anything that lessens a pitcher’s concentration on the hitter is good for the offense.

  • Free Chris Davis

    Evan. What does a movie ticket cost in NYC?

    Pete Rose, I really don’t care. Base stealing, when used properly, is an effective weapon.

  • Ehren

    If doing more harm than good with a 70%-75% success rate stealing then what is someone who fails between 70% and 75% of the time hitting a baseball trying to advance the runner?

    Stealing is based on the current events at hand. It’s sounds like it’s being made out that if a person gets on base then they’ll try to steal the base right then and there. If a person can run then give them the green light. Don’t send a player like Ortiz!

  • Maddox

    Just saw District 9 at 34th street. $12.50. Katz is open all night, so no excuses.

    Going to the Thursday day game and can’t wait to wear my old school Pudge jersey.

    Let’s hope Davis hits a few bombs.

    Go Rangers.

    Rangers Fan in Brooklyn.

  • Ehren

    @Maddox: More power to you!

  • Dan

    Speaking of flights, if anyone else is dorky enough, you can track the Rangers’ team plane here:

    http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N757SS

  • Rod in NC

    I guess I’m dorky enough Dan, cuz that’s geeky-cool!

  • Ehren

    @Dan: I’m buying my pocket protector right now cause that is cool.

  • steven Hecht

    1-Katz’s “juicy” pastrami is the best in the world and will spoil you for any other. Make sure you order it “juicy”.
    2-Why see a movie in NYC with so much to do? Save the movie for the Twin Cities.

  • Brett in SD

    Rangers’ plane must have had traffic ahead at LaGuardia – it performed at least three holds (360′s) between Chesapeke Bay and NJ.

  • Mike Gray

    When the Yankees had Willie Randolph and Mickey Rivers, they created absolute havoc. The same is true for many teams in that era, and for Tampa Bay, now. A really outstanding running game creates a whole nother dimension. The Rangers have that potential with Borbon and Andrus.

    In my view, a pennant contending team has to be unstoppable in some area — you can’t just be pretty good at everything. There has to something truly exceptional, and, if you have the right personnel, the running game may be it.

  • Brett in SD

    Evan,

    Definitely agree Katz’ is worth the trip. Also, be sure to get a bagel (any bagel) while you’re there – they just aren’t made like that anywhere else in the country.

  • B. Money

    I think Navarro should keep stealing bases.

  • Chris

    @dan, why is it registered in AK? Cheaper taxes?

  • Lamar in PA

    1)The movie: saw it last night, totally loved it. As long as you have a taste for extreme cinematic violence when used against the right parties, I think you’ll have a blast. And even when nobody’s geting shot, the dialogue and general tension are wonderful.
    2)Pete Rose: I honestly wouldn’t care if they let him into Cooperstown (am I crazy for caring more about who’s in the Rangers Hall of Fame than MLB’s?), the issue for me is that he never be allowed to hold any job in baseball again. That’s not just the deterrent, but also common sense.
    3)Basestealing is a tremendous weapon, and I’m all for it. Of course, if some guy’s getting thrown out 40% of the time, he’s no basestealer, just some guy who runs. But I’m suspicious of putting too much weight into statistical analysis of the effect it has because a lot of that effect is on the defense (creating hits by getting fielders out of position) and the psychology of the pitcher (making less than his best pitch because there’s a runner on). And while we can argue with my belief that there’s no stat that adequately measures defense, I don’t think even James himself would argue that there’s a stat to measure the pitcher’s head.

  • Fred

    1) I thought AA was offering WiFi free for an introductory period. If that’s true, better not bill the company.
    2) That’s one of the problems with the stat heads. All of the peripheral, interlocking qualitative factors are ignored.

  • Abner Doubleday

    Peter Rose should never be allowed to join the ranks of my heroes. Besides, his name sounds “pornish”.
    I never pitched professionally but I can tell you without reservation that activity on the basepaths is a tremendous “skull-screwing” for a pitcher: The throws to 1st; the slide step throws off my rhythm and I tend to hang my slider or throw it in the dirt; My SS and/or 2nd baseman are cheating too far toward the bag; my catcher sucks. Because of all of these things I must strike out the batter…etc..
    You get the point.

  • Rangers Fan

    Am I the only one that thinks it’s creepy to track planes??

  • JustSaying

    @evan if you don’t mind dining with gangsters “peter luger Steak House” in Brooklyn just over the bridge is the rad……..it’s cash or their own issued credit card…….

  • JustSaying

    one of the things i love about wash and HATED about buck is their attiude toward baserunning……..if you can do it then DO IT!

  • The Beer Guy

    Well, here goes an oppositional voice: I think Rose should be voted into the HoF. First, the HoF is not a part of MLB, nor is it controlled or run by, Major League Baseball. I quote from the wikipedia entry on the NATIONAL BASEBALL HALL OF FAME (note: it is NOT called the MLB Hall of Fame):

    “…operated by private interests serving as the central point for the study of the history of baseball in the United States and beyond, the display of baseball-related artifacts and exhibits, and the honoring of persons who have excelled in playing, managing, and serving the sport.”

    This establishes that the NBHoF is not necessarily a collection of individuals of the utmost moral character. If it were, there would be many more banned historically! The NBHoF is entirely and completely about performance within the sport, and on that count, Rose easily qualifies.

    However, there is the issue of the NBHoF having a rule against allowing anyone entry that is on MLB’s permanent ban list. So, strictly speaking, Rose cannot now be allowed in. The question is thus whether the NBhOF ought to revoke that rule, and I suggest that they should.

    That exclusion from the HoF acts as a deterrent to future nefarious activity is highly speculative and based more on faulty “common sense” thinking than on established fact. I would suggest that a FAR more persuasive deterrent is (as noted by Lamar in PA above) the permanent prohibition of ever working in/playing in MLB.

    To take a more recent example, consider Barry Bonds. Was consideration of his future HoF status enough to deter him from using PEDs (assuming he actually did use them)? Apparently not in the face of improved performance and resulting lucrative contracts.

    Let me be clear: I do not approve of what Rose did in betting on games (some against his own team, as he later admitted). Such action is despicable and should be clear grounds for a permanent suspension from MLB. However, based on his on-field accomplishments, Rose should be inducted into the NBHoF.

  • Buck

    I grew up watching Pete Rose. I never really cared about the outside of baseball stuff that Rose was into or represented, but I loved how he played the game. Face it … God didn’t bless Pete w/ much talent, but you could tell every time he was in the lineup that he played hard and w/ passion. That will always stick w/ me.

    When you watch the players today, many of them play to get paid – you can tell. A-Rod certainly doesn’t play w/ passion. He justified his ‘roid-use not because he wanted to win but because the other guys were doing it – he wanted to get paid.

    It’s shame what Pete did. And there probably a lot of folks like me that certainly admired what Pete did on the field, but there are lines that shouldn’t and can’t be crossed. To He!! with all of the guys that break the rules and I include ‘roid users in that mix. The HOF is special and for those most deserving in all aspects of the game. It doesn’t bother that Pete’s not in the HOF, but it would certainly bother me more if he were inducted and took a place beside Clemente and Mays.

    Yes, there are former players that are in the HOF didn’t weren’t the best citizens and perhaps not of the best character. But, by and large, the players represented in the HOF represent the best of the best. I’ve been to Cooperstown and I encourage everyone to go. It is an amazing place and somehow inducting guys that crossed that line seems somehow to cheapen that honor and distinction of the best of the best.

  • The Beer Guy

    As for stealing bases, I agree with Evan who provides a very good set of examples of the unquantifiable (or very difficult to quantify) aspects of baseball. Stats are great, but they can never capture the totality of complex social interaction, of which baseball or any sport is an example.

  • The Beer Guy

    Further to the point that the HoF is not about moral turpitude, consider the case of former commissioner Judge Kennisaw Mountain Landis (1920-1944), who among other things (good and bad) actively and stringently acted to keeps blacks out of MLB.

    For me, racism and an segregationist apartheid mentality is an absolute immorality (far, far worse than gambling on one’s own team), yet Commissioner Landis sits in the Hall of Fame. Should he? “But you have to consider the times!” Fair enough, but the times have changed, so should we now remove him from the HoF, letting his family be happy with the time he has spent there? No, and for the same reasons Rose belongs in the HoF (but not in MLB).

  • hahachrisdavis

    Anytime Joe Morgan agrees with you, you probably need to reconsider your position. This is not an exception to that.

  • Brett in SD

    Pete Rose:

    I second both Lamar in PA and The Beer Guy – if Pete Rose is, notwithstanding his gambling, deserving as a player of election into the HOF, then so be it. The HOF, it seems to me, recognizes the player, not the person. But he should never, ever be allowed to work in the game again.

    Evan’s Base Stealing Issue:
    I think are some differences between (1) base stealing; (2) bunting and (3) a running game. Elvis Andrus and Julio Borbon “bunting and using their speed” isn’t necessarily the same as base stealing. Base stealing and bunting are both merely components of an overall running game, which can also include hit-and-runs, going from first to third on a single, bunt-and-steal, suicide squeeze, etc. The Rangers have been successful 84% of the time on their stolen base attempts. That probably helps them win more games than if they were only successful 60% of the time. In fact, of the top 10 teams in stolen base percentage, 8 are in a playoff race, whereas only 1 of the bottom 5 is (St. Louis). Perhaps it’s a coincidence, I don’t know.

  • mjh

    Carnegie Deli…. or don’t come home

  • mjh

    oh, and Pete Rose is in. BBWAA writers who vote for the hall allowed Gaylord Perry in to the Hall. He is an “admitted” cheater. Pete earned every single hit honestly. IN.

  • Jon

    As I recall from Moneyball the A’s focus was on avoiding outs as opposed to making runs. Stealing was viewed as increasing outs, killing innings and therefore to be avoided.

    I agree that if all you can achieve is a 50% – 60% rate of success stealing is a losing proposition.

    However, I strongly believe that a “complete” baseball team steals, bunts, and runs the bases. These aspects of the game put pressure on the defense and pitching so the intangibles figure in. For example, pitchers can not soley focus on the batter. The 3B has to balance between fielding both the hit and the bunt. It is my understanding that the great slugger Mickey Mantle had the green light to bunt whenever the 3B cheated back to far.

    It has been a real pleasure to see this Ranger team start to display a complete skill set. I look forwrd to their further development.

  • Part Time Ranger Fan

    Pete Rose: I agree with The Beer Guy’s post at 6:48pm. I read the entire Dowd Report (yeah, I have no life), and am convinced that Rose bet on baseball, bet on the Reds, and it probably affected the way he managed. However, he should be elected on his resume as a player. As Beer Guy said, the HOF is not run by MLB. I believe Rose should be banned from MLB for life, but believe he should be in the HOF.

    Base Stealing: It can be a great weapon and cause havoc for the opposing team. There are times when you need to be less aggressive, obviously, but for the most part it can create extra runs.

    Dining in NYC: Whatever you do you have to have a piece of cheesecake from Juniors. Tree-mendous.

    Yankee Stadium: Evan, what are your thoughts of the new stadium? $1.6 billion doesn’t get you what it used to, huh? Put me down on the “extremely dissapointed” list.

  • JustSaying

    @ mjh you’re just wack……
    @evan i strongly disagree and agree with you….rose should out but i would tell him the reason is “he is a punk, i always do whatever i can to keep punks out of the hall, it’s not personal pete”

  • JustSaying

    @ all rangers fans…….i’m going to emasculate the next one of you that talks about 2010…….this is now so focus you moron………..this team CAN go to the playoffs and it would be GREAT to see them there THIS YEAR………so i don’t want to hear any more about your wussy cj pain…..that’s wussy pain not wussy cj…….he’s been very successful this year and he’s been a frickin steal at $1.75. Especially when you consider blalock stole $6 mil. having cj wussy pain is pretty lame when you put it up against “zito pain” gaints fans tonite are two games (not one) out of the wild card race and ZITO…..FRICKIN ZITO is on the FRICKIN mound for the giants….4 innings 1 hit….ok so get it my zito pain requires a cardiologist and your cj pain requires a shot of bourban………

  • Chaim Weitzman

    Evan: If you are eating at a Deli in New York it should be a kosher Deli. Katz’s is traif. You should go to Liebman’s KOSHER Deli in The Bronx, home of Yankee Stadium. You won’t be sorry. Head and shoulders above ANYTHING in Dallas. ANYTHING.

    Zei gezunt!

  • Uwe Blog

    My question about stealing bases and the Texas Rangers apparent ability to do that is how they will change — philsophy-wise — with their offense. And will this change result in a change in hitting coach? I realize that Rudy Jaramillo hung the moon, but is his approach a viable one considering the steps the Rangers are taking as a franchise. With guys like Elvis Andrus, Julio Borbon, Ian Kinsler and Co. currently in the bigs, does it help or hinder the Rangers to have a homer-happy, swing-first-ask-questions later hitting coach when you have at least two players who may never approach 20 home runs at the top of your line-up?

  • JustSaying

    maybe there’s a part time hitting instructor position in the minors……..

  • Ansel

    Speaking of stealing bases, watching Pete do it was like watching live art (or some days Ian). Let him in or keep him out, just give all the roid boys the same treatment – they skewed the meaning of the hall and its stats far worse than Pete ever did.

  • Buck

    I suppose I don’t have much empathy for Pete Rose. He knew the rules and he broke them …and, for what? A few bucks? A few kicks? Did he think the rules didn’t apply to him? He did it for years and it wasn’t just one isolated incident. It tells me that he prioritized himself over baseball, and Pete Rose is not bigger than baseball although several folks seem to think he is.

    Not having Pete Rose in the HOF sure won’t keep me awake a night, and those who have the power choose may indeed induct him … well, that’s there prerogative. I will sleep either way but I do think it cheapens the honor as he would be an exception to a long standing rule.

    I loved watching Pete play, and yes, he had a HOF career. When the rules change where a person can manage an MLB team and bet on MLB games while managing a team including the team that’s paying his salary, then Pete can slide right on in there in my book.

  • badspellr

    Pastrami on rye with shaved onions and brown mustard. Chips are okay. Knishes are better.

    Pete Rose conversations are a lot like discussing abortion. Everybody has a lot to say, people tend to get really mad, and nobody ever changes their mind. The Rose in the Hall debate is dead to me.

    You had a point about steals, but lost me at “Joe Morgan,…”

    Have in in New York. Good eats, but you will pay Stienbrennerish prices.

  • Buck

    Without Pete Rose, what would have to argue about when the Rangers are off?

    Oh… wreaking havoc on the base paths? I really like our lineup w/ Borbon, Andrus, Cruz, and Kinsler. I also like starting runners w/ Blalock and MY are at bat. I thought for years that the Rangers played Earl Weaver baseball and it killed us in close games when we faced a good pitcher.

  • The Beer Guy

    @Buck: Actually, it’s not really a long-standing rule. As I understand it, the HoF committee only passed the “ineligible if banned from MLB” rule in 1991. Prior to that, it was just custom/agreement that kept Shoeless Joe out.

  • James in NY

    @Evan: Don’t forget to try the cupcakes. Check out Crumbs or Magnolia Bakery. It’s a meal in itself!

    I’ll try to get to the game on Wednesday. I will justify giving money to the Yankees only when the Rangers in town and as long as they agree that my money goes toward MLB profit sharing.

  • Blogging – online blogs | SEO Mixer Blog

    [...] Dallas Sports: Texas Rangers News Dallas Cowboys News Dallas …10 hours ago by Evan Grant  So, what are your thoughts on these subjects? Anything? Anyone? 13 Comments to “Blogging on the Rangers from 33000 Feet Just Because I Can: Couple of Quick Nuggets”. chadb @ August 24th, 2009 at 1:10 pm …um, hello? … Tags: Blogging [...]

  • Samson

    I’ve only seen a handful of ML talent as good as Pete Rose. And all those eligible are in the Hall of Fame. If I was Commissioner for a day, I’d give a Presidential pardon and never lose a minute of sleep over the decision.

    Over the last decade we’ve witnessed multiple sports punish and reinstate athletes for various crimes, many of which are much worse than anything Pete Rose has done. The last time I checked, it was also illegal to take PED’s in baseball, so it would appear MLB only cares about their pocketbook when it comes to enforcing their laws.

  • CharleyW

    On Pete Rose, he knew it when he took the job. End of story.

    I never thought Katz’s was anything special. Used to be a nice little Kosher Deli on First Ave and 15th St. Really superb.

    Queens used to be littered with German deli’s – probably not now though. But what NYC does do is give you the opportunity to stock up on mustard’s that are difficult to get here in Texas – Ba-Tamp-Te and Bauers. Both are from Brooklyn, and were the staples of any NYC deli I was ever in. And I worked in one.