Pitching Profile – August Edition

Just like we did at the end of May, and at the end of June (sorry about the end of July) – Here is the latest extensive look at the Rangers starting rotation. The point of this exercise is to dig a bit deeper than the basic stats for each starting pitcher to see what they are good at – or what they are not good at.

In the 129 games that were played before the calendar turned to September, 9 pitchers have started games for the Rangers. Kevin Millwood (26), Scott Feldman (24), Derek Holland (16), Tommy Hunter (12), Matt Harrison (11), Brandon McCarthy (11), Dustin Nippert (7), Kris Benson (2), and Doug Mathis (2). This study will focus on the six pitchers who have made at least 10 starts. The other 3 run into sample size issues that might render verdicts a bit meaningless.

Proceed at your own risk – for stat nerds only:

Just so we are all up to speed with the different stats, IPS is Innings Per Start and PPS is Pitches Per Start. Everything else will be metrics that I am sure you are familiar with.

Before you start, we need to establish league averages for the stats so you understand what consitutes “league average”. So, here you go:

ERA – AL Average is 4.46
AVG – AL Average is .265
OBP – AL Average is .333
SLG – AL Average is .426
K/9 – AL Average is 6.87
BB/9 – AL Average is 3.37
HR/9 – AL Average is 1.13
WHIP – AL Average is 1.40

Kevin Millwood Splits

Month GS QS IP IPS PPS ERA AVG/OBP/SLG K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WHIP
April 5 4 38 7.2 114.6 2.13 .210/.253/.333 5.2 1.89 1.18 0.97
May 6 3 40 6.2 106.1 4.28 .280/.354/.490 4.72 3.37 1.57 1.47
June 5 5 34.2 7.0 113.8 1.30 .214/.299/.328 7.00 3.37 0.52 1.18
July 5 1 25.1 5.0 69.4 6.75 .297/.354/.465 4.98 3.19 1.07 1.54
August 5 2 29.0 5.2 108.8 4.66 .283/.379/.487 5.28 4.97 1.24 1.65
Total 26 15 167.0 6.42 106.6 3.61 .255/.327/.419 5.44 3.28 1.13 1.34

Table Tutorial

Is your Millwood cup half-full or half-empty? If you are a positive person, you can say that he has easily been the Rangers most durable and dependable starter. If you are a negative person, you can easily suggest that July and August have been his two weakest months – and the results are not even close. With just 3 Quality starts since July 1, and the league slugging .475 off him in those two months, it is fair to say Millwood has gone from dominating early, to “below average” late.

Still, all in all, 32 starts – 200+ innings, and an ERA under 4? I think 2009 for Kevin Millwood has been absolutely acceptable.

Scott Feldman Splits

Month GS QS IP IPS PPS ERA AVG/OBP/SLG K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WHIP
April 1 0 5.0 5.0 79 1.80 .211/.250/.316 3.60 1.80 0.0 1.0
May 6 5 36.2 6.1 99.3 2.70 .195/.270/.273 4.42 2.95 0.49 1.00
June 6 3 35.1 6.0 93.1 4.33 .246/.303/.425 4.33 2.29 1.53 1.19
July 5 4 29.0 5.8 99 3.72 .269/.333/.417 3.41 3.10 0.93 1.34
August 6 3 37.1 6.2 105.8 2.89 .268/.338/.319 8.19 3.37 0.24 1.37
Total 24 15 143.1 5.97 98.41 3.33 .243/.309/.355 5.15 2.88 0.75 1.21

Table Tutorial

You would lose a lot of money betting against Scott Feldman. He has been such a riduclous story of success that it is almost difficult to pour over the numbers. His Avg/OBP/Slug splits are all well below league averages. I cannot remember a Ranger pitcher that can say that in recent years. His WHIP has been low all season long and although his walks are slowly rising, they are still plenty low.

One curious point of Feldman is his K/9 rate in August. Given my obsession on the topic on July 29, it is amazing that he doubled his K rate in August. Is it a anamoly? Is it proof Feldman reads Inside Corner? Whatever the case, suddenly, he strikes guys out.

Since becoming a starter, Feldman has not had a month of fewer than 3 Quality Starts. Simply put, Scott Feldman has been unreal. All year.

Vicente Padilla Splits

Month GS QS IP IPS PPS ERA AVG/OBP/SLG K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WHIP
April 5 1 26.2 5.1 95.4 7.43 .330/.400/.496 6.84 3.37 1.35 1.92
May 3 3 23 7.2 103 1.57 .160/.267/.173 3.31 3.91 0.00 1.16
June 6 3 33.2 5.2 101.2 4.81 .290/.384/.405 5.07 4.81 0.80 1.66
July 3 2 19.0 6.1 94.3 4.26 .329/.346/.461 4.73 0.95 0.95 1.42
August 1 0 5.2 5.2 107 9.53 .304/.370/.783 6.35 3.17 4.76 1.58
Total 18 9 108 6.0 99.1 4.92 .286/.360/.419 4.92 3.50 1.00 1.50

Table Tutorial

And so, the Vicente Padilla era ends in Texas. Moments of brilliance early in the season, but like Millwood, it appears that as the season developed, Padilla’s best moments were fewer and further between. Only 24 innings since July 1, and in those games the league was hitting .320 off of him.

I believe they suggest that you can grow fungus on your shower shoes if you can win 20 in the show. But, if the league is hitting .320 off of you, you better be a good teammate.

Derek Holland As A Starter

Month GS QS IP IPS PPS ERA AVG/OBP/SLG K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WHIP
May-June 6 1 33 5.1 88.1 6.27 .314/.358/.526 7.90 2.72 1.63 1.60
July 4 1 23.1 5.2 96.3 4.63 .236/.299/.449 8.49 3.09 1.54 1.24
August 6 2 34.1 5.2 87.8 5.77 .263/.331/.489 6.02 3.40 2.09 1.39
Totals 16 4 90.2 5.2 90.1 5.66 .276/.334/.493 7.34 3.07 1.78 1.43

Table Tutorial

Please keep in mind, all of these Holland numbers are as a starter-only. He has had a rough go of things, with 4 Quality Starts in 16 tries. His K/9 Rate is out of this world but so is his HR/9 Rate.

He clearly has learned some tough lessons this year. He has shown flashes, but to simply claim it is a young pitcher learning the ropes is partly true – but it also ignores Tommy Hunter’s year.

Tommy Hunter Splits

Month GS QS IP IPS PPS ERA AVG/OBP/SLG K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WHIP
July 4 3 24.1 6.0 95.75 1.11 .186/.263/.256 6.29 3.33 0.37 1.03
August 6 3 37.1 6.2 98.6 3.86 .238/.297/.413 5.55 2.41 0.96 1.18
Total 12 7 73.1 6.1 96.5 2.95 .232/.293/.384 5.40 2.70 0.85 1.17

Table Tutorial

The Tommy Hunter numbers do not include his first 2 starts in June, but the numbers are shocking all around. Hunter has simply exceeded expectations on every level and every stat. He allows no runners, no home runs, no extra base hits, no nothing. He works into the 7th inning. He has given the Rangers 70 innings already and has almost no disaster starts.

If Feldman has been the biggest surprise, then Hunter is right behind him. As Holland and Feliz steal the headlines, Tommy Hunter is knocking them dead without a ton of fanfare. He has really been good.

Brandon McCarthy Splits

Month GS QS IP IPS PPS ERA AVG/OBP/SLG K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WHIP
April 4 2 22 5.2 96.3 5.32 .282/.370/.565 6.13 4.91 2.45 1.64
May 6 3 38 6.1 97.1 3.79 .248/.300/.366 6.15 2.60 0.95 1.24
June 1 0 4 4.0 79.0 13.50 .333/.429/.667 6.75 6.75 2.25 2.25
Total 11 5 64 5.2 95.1 4.92 .266/.335/.456 6.18 3.66 1.54 1.43

Table Tutorial

McCarthy’s start last night did not make the August sample, so check back next month to see how his return went.

Matt Harrison Splits

Month GS QS IP IPS PPS ERA AVG/OBP/SLG K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WHIP
April 4 0 21.2 5.1 91 7.89 .359/.429/.554 3.74 4.98 1.66 2.08
May 5 2 33 6.2 100.6 3.82 .271/.304/.434 5.45 1.09 0.81 1.18
June 2 0 8.2 4.1 85.5 10.38 .371/.476/.600 5.19 7.26 2.07 2.31
Total 11 2 63.1 5.2 97.1 6.11 .316/.376/.500 4.83 3.27 1.28 1.64

Table Tutorial

Harrison has been shut down for the year.  His 2009 will not be long remembered.

Starting Rotation Totals

Totals GS QS IP IPS PPS ERA AVG/OBP/SLG K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WHIP
Total 130 58 768.1 5.91 98 4.40 .267/.335/.426 5.65 3.29 1.15 1.39

Table Tutorial

In June, I wrote this:

Only 3 teams in the major leagues (Balt, Wash, Pitt) have fewer strikeouts from their rotations, but only 1 team is getting more pitches (Boston) per start from that same rotation. The Rangers starters are giving their team 6 innings and 99.3 pitcher per start and a Quality Start on 47% of their occasions. This is keeping the bullpen reasonably fresh, and the team is staying quite competitive.

The Rangers are ranked 12th in MLB and 6th in the American League right now in Innings Pitched by its Starting Rotation. The Rangers are getting Quality Starts on 45% of their opportunities. The Rangers are 21st in the MLB in this category. But, the most remarkable number on September 1st? With a Staff ERA of 4.40, only 3 American League teams have better starting rotation ERA; Seattle (4.04), Detroit (4.29), and Chicago (4.33). 4th in the American League? Believe it. It is true.

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19 Comments to “Pitching Profile – August Edition”
  • WacoGreg

    No I don’t believe it Bob, glad you can show us with these numbers. Forgot to mention Padilla would be included in the opening paragraphs, but it is clear that he was not pulling his weight as a teammate or a starter around here since early in the season. Can’t wait to see Hunter tonight, hopefully we see the Jay’s of yesterday and not the 18 run version.

  • J. Blake

    For a “deeper” look into the pitching staff this post is pretty shallow. This isn’t for “stat nerds” this is for anybody who knows how to read a players stat profile on ESPN. Go back to radio, you are easily the worst part of this blog. You are the captain obvious of Dallas Sports. I regret wasting my time reading anything you write.

  • Brad

    Thanks for contributing, J. Blake.

  • Rossometown

    J. Blake, if you don’t like it, don’t read it. Maybe you’ll get upset with me because it’s so obvious, which you obviously hate so much.

    Bob, good stuff, if nothing else it’s a good topic of conversation. There was quite a bit of talk earlier this year saying that the pitching hasn’t really improved, just that the defense is so much better that it makes the pitchers numbers come down, which I do believe is true to an extent. The point I want to make though, is that even with the defense being the key to the improvement there are a few factors that can really predict how good a pitcher really is: K/9, BB/9, and HR/9. BAA can be inflated by bad defense or by luck, and that hinges on BABIP (against).

    I think K/9 is the least significant of these three factors, because you can get bailed out by your defense, but if you don’t walk batters and you don’t give up the long ball it helps the cause significantly. Obviously (sorry J. Blake, you can stop reading now), the more K’s, the less balls in play to find holes or give the defense a chance to misplay, so K’s go a long way, but if you strike out 20 and walk 10 (would never happen, the pitch count would be around 200) you could still give up a ton of runs based on those free passes given out. You look at all the pitchers numbers from the charts above and you see that the best months were had when the BB/9 and HR/9 are well below average, and that’s exactly why Tommy Hunter is succeeding. He keeps the ball in the park and he doesn’t just give bases away.

    If I were to make a suggestion, Bob, I would ask you to expand your charts to include K/BB rate and GO/AO rate (if you keep it on the ground, it’s not going over the fence). These numbers go hand in hand with the factors I keyed on.

  • Tim

    Thank you, J. Blake. FINALLY, somebody has the courage to post a criticism on in the comments section of a blog. Bravo, good sir. Rest assured, I have no doubt Bob will be up nights fretting over falling short of your lofty standards. Clearly you are the baseball genius, and I await with bated breath your columns and/or radio show. Such bravery, too. Most people would have stopped reading the post after the first couple of paragraphs once he or she had determined its ultimate value to be “a waste of time”, but not you. No, J. Blake raised the bar for us all by continuing to waste his invaluable time reading this article, I assume so that he could tell the rest of us sports dunces that this, in fact, is not a “deeper” look at the pitching staff after all. Thank you for your sacrifice, brave soldier. Please post the website with your petition to D Magazine to replace Bob’s blog with your own, and I will gladly e-sign it with all of my e-heart. J. Blake: less than a god, but more than a man. Long will your tales be sung. We will teach them to our children, and our children’s children; o sing of the great baseball mind J. Blake, who courageously used an anonymous post to slay the mighty sports brain of the evil Bob Sturm–that serpent who wished only to leave his readers with an insatiable hunger for baseball stats after under-delivering on his promise to provide mental sustenance to “stat nerds”. Most would have accepted Bob’s gathering of Ranger starting pitcher stats into one column and appreciated his statistical analysis, but J. Blake reminds us all that we can find these stats at ESPN. Thanks for holding us all to a higher standard, J. Blake. This has truly been a wake up call, for all of us, I think.

  • Tim

    Thank you, J. Blake. FINALLY, somebody has the courage to post a criticism on in the comments section of a blog. Bravo, good sir. Rest assured, I have no doubt Bob will be up nights fretting over falling short of your lofty standards. Clearly you are the baseball genius, and I await with bated breath your columns and/or radio show. Such bravery, too. Most people would have stopped reading the post after the first couple of paragraphs once he or she had determined its ultimate value to be “a waste of time”, but not you. No, J. Blake raised the bar for us all by continuing to waste his invaluable time reading this article, I assume so that he could tell the rest of us sports dunces that this, in fact, is not a “deeper” look at the pitching staff after all. Thank you for your sacrifice, brave soldier. Please post the website with your petition to D Magazine to replace Bob’s blog with your own, and I will gladly e-sign it with all of my e-heart. J. Blake: less than a god, but more than a man. Long will your tales be sung. We will teach them to our children, and our children’s children; o sing of the great baseball mind J. Blake, who courageously used an anonymous post to slay the mighty sports brain of the evil Bob Sturm–that serpent who wished only to leave his readers with an insatiable hunger for baseball stats after under-delivering on his promise to provide mental sustenance to “stat nerds”. Most would have accepted Bob’s gathering of Ranger starting pitcher stats into one column and appreciated his statistical analysis, but J. Blake reminds us all that we can find these stats at ESPN. Thanks for holding us all to a higher standard, J. Blake. This has truly been a wake up call, for all of us, I think.

  • Josey Wales

    Sports Sturm,

    Love your work over at Inside Corner (and still think “The Fern bit” was greatness).

    Check out the stat known as Game Scores over at baseballreference.com (game logs for individual pitchers). It tells you much more than the antiquated “Quality Start.”

    So much of a starting pitcher’s job is to not pitch so poorly early in a game that your team has no chance. See DHolland Game Score of 3 on Monday night.

    Get a Game Score of 50+ from your starting pitcher and your chances of winning skyrocket.

  • Tom B

    Boy! Are we a testy lot today? I’m glad I took the time to read ALL of the comments. I feel it gave me balance and kept brevity at an arms length. Gosh, Bob, do you have any other brothers? Okay, enough of the Pick-On Bob Day. I think he is blooded beyond repair and might have to go on the DL. YEAH, Bob!!!
    Tim says hit ‘send’ twice. Is he hosing me?

  • Yep

    Good to see Josey over here. We need some Josey CD discussion in the game day threads.

  • Buck

    Great post. I enjoyed it. McCarthy’s K-rate gives one hope. If he could only stay healthy.

    Feldman and Hunter – what can you say? Solid if not spectacular.

    I like Millwood, but he really isn’t an ace. On a legit playoff team he’d be the third starter, at best. He’s a grinder, and you’ve got to give him props for guts.

    The starting pitching is the story of the season so far. The bullpen has been really good at times (most times), but the implosions have been really bad. Statistically, the BP doesn’t look all that bad but when you look a specific games, the tarnish shows. I’d prefer a more consistent BP then one that may implode in a big game. Don’t know how you capture that in stats.

    Didn’t J. Blake get fired in OK before Stoops? Man, that guys couldn’t coach his way out of a paper bag.

  • Sports Panties

    Nice post, Bob. Good stuff as always.

  • Fox

    At the risk of being shot by Jack Daddy, do the Rangers think about moving Holland to the BP to give a power lefty and another solid long relief option?

  • Baseball Rookie

    As my name suggests, I am a relatively new fan of baseball. Could someone please tell me what WHIP stands for? That’s the only abbreviation I couldn’t figure out…

  • Ryan

    Baseball Rookie. I believe it is the number of walks and hits divided by the number of innings pitched.

  • JustSaying

    what jumps out at me is how the era is lower but other numbers seem in the zone……is that a sign of just better defense backing up the staff?

  • Jon

    Bob

    So, based on WHIP, your ace is Tommy Hunter and your rotation is:

    1.17 ace Tommy Hunter
    1.21 #2 Scott Feldman
    1.34 #3 Kevin Millwood
    1.43 #4-5 Derek Holland
    1.43 #4-5 Brandon McCarthy

    Interesting to see where Millwood ranks. Although a different discussion it makes me think that Feliz will be a starter next year.

    @ JustSaying – That is what many have argued. Pitching is better, but defense is astronomically better this year.

    Bullpen help is usually easier to acquire in the off season then starting pitching.

  • Jim Panther

    Tim – “less than a god, but more than a man” – classic.

    Good column Bob.

  • Jack Daddy

    Tim – funny stuff. I love a smart a$$.

    @fox – i can appreciate the soundness of that argument. I wouldn’t do it, and I think my arguments on the topic can win the day, but you wouldn’t be out in left field given the big hole in this bullpen (a power left in the 5th-7th innings). Let’s give Holland a couple of more starts and see if Monday was a blip on the radar.

  • Jack Daddy

    guys – will mention this later tonight, but don’t forget that MLB changed their rules on the home field advantage for 1 game tiebreaker playoff games. Used to be coin flip and now is head to head.

    So, we would host TB and Boston. Clearly, in order to tie LAA, we would have to win several of these remaining games with them, so we would host them also.

    This fact shouldn’t be over-looked.

    Prediction? We finish 94-68 (going 20-10 the rest of way) and finish tied with LAA.