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Sitting Kevin Millwood Down Would Help Rangers Balance Sheet; Might it Help Playoff Chances, too?

Posted on September 14th, 2009 11:00am by Evan Grant
Filed under AL West race, Baseball, Starting rotation, Talkin' baseball, Texas Rangers

It’s no longer just about the money with Kevin Millwood.

Allowing Millwood to make another start would almost certainly insure the financially-strapped Rangers would be on the hook for $12 million for his seemingly declining services 2010. The only way it wouldn’t is if Millwood makes another start like the one he did Saturday. And if he makes another start like Saturday, it just might sabotage any remaining chance the Rangers have of reaching the playoffs.

So, yeah, the money is a big deal, but the bigger issue right now is whether keeping Millwood in the rotation is the best option for the team on the field, not the one in the front office.

And you can be sure the Rangers are thinking about the issue long and hard. How can you be sure? Well, consider these events:

On Saturday night, after Millwood lasted just 3.2 innings against the worst offensive team in the AL, I asked Rangers manager Ron Washington if he still had enough confidence in Millwood to make his next start. The tentative date for that start: Friday, the series opener against the Los Angeles Angels.

Washington’s response: “Of course. We’re not going to get to this point in the year and not have confidence in him. You’ve got to take the good with the bad.”

By Sunday, the Rangers were backing away from that.

“For me to definitely say that, I don’t know,” Washington said in an mlb.com story.

Millwood could have work sessions Monday and Wednesday in preparation for the Angels start. Or he could have more work than that if the Rangers decide to push him back farther.

On Saturday, the only thing Washington could really find to use as praise for Millwood was that he didn’t walk guys like he had been. But even that had to be qualified. Millwood didn’t issue a walk in the first three innings, then, after the Rangers rallied for a pair of runs to cut the deficit to 3-2, he walked the first batter of the fourth inning, who just happened to be the .213-hitting Jack Hannahan . He also walked the nearly unwalkable Jose Lopez – on four pitches – to force his exit from the game. In between there were a pair of outs and a pair of hits. And a whole bunch of mediocre fastballs.

According to the MLB.com boxscore, Millwood hit 90 mph with just two of his 69 pitches. Both came in Franklin Gutierrez’s fourth-inning at bat with two outs. The second, Gutierrez ripped for a two-run double. For the most part, though, Millwood’s fastball ranged from 86-88 mph. His changeup sat at 83-84. When your fastball and changeup are bunched that closely in velocity, you aren’t going to fool anybody. The slider registered 81-83 mph. And so, unless it had David Cone’s sweeping break, batters could look for the fastball and still be able to hit the slider. Millwood had decent success with his curve, which dropped down to the 70-71 mph range. He got a pair of strikeouts on the curve, including one of Ichiro Suzuki. And yet, he threw the curve only five times.

It raises this question: Is he healthy?

Washington said he asked Millwood that and Millwood responded in the affirmative. The media asked Millwood the same question and he responded that he absolutely physically felt fine.

Except I’m still not sure. Remember the start of the second half of the season? The Rangers gave Millwood, who had spent the first half of the season as their most effective starter, extra rest. He went nine days between his last start of the first half and his first of the second. And in his second start following the break, he left after just two innings with a strained gluteus maximus muscle.

He has not been the same since. Since returning from the glute injury, he’s 1-3 with a 5.97 ERA. The Rangers are 1-6 in his seven starts; they are 18-9 when anybody else pitches. The velocity continues to drop. He looks worn out in the second or third inning almost every time out. Since coming to Texas, he’s now 4-11 with a 5.48 ERA in September. He’s one more poor start from making September the worst month for his ERA during his Texas time (it’s currently 5.61 in May). He’s also probably just one more start from forcing the Rangers to commit to him for $12 million in 2010.

From a business perspective, the choice would be an easy one: Sit him down and avoid saddling the club with a big and unnecessary salary for 2010.

And until a few weeks ago, it would have been seen as nothing more than a penny-pinching gesture from a financially-troubled organization.

But, now, the issue has become more complicated because it might just be in the best interest of the Rangers’ 2009 season.

26 Comments to “Sitting Kevin Millwood Down Would Help Rangers Balance Sheet; Might it Help Playoff Chances, too?”

alan in SA @ September 14th, 2009 at 11:29 am

I’d sit him down now..His recent performance negates any union argument that the team is acting in bad faith..If the union wants to fight it, the process will probably take a long time to work itself out so that even if you are forced to pay him some or all of the $12 million, you at least get to put it off for awhile

I think the big issue with the union is what if the Rangers get eliminated with a week left? Only reason for not starting him then might be financial. I’d still take the risk and some of the money for Sheets or somebody like that
horsedooty @ September 14th, 2009 at 11:36 am

I sat in the drizzle Saturday nite and watched the awful performance Millwood put out. In my mind Millood is done. When I saw Washington start to walk out to yank him out of the game I stood up and started to clap.

you can pass on my message to Millwood, “Go away!”
Rossometown @ September 14th, 2009 at 11:36 am

How he got into the 4th inning last start I’ll never know. I feel bad for the guy because he was such a horse earlier in the season, but how long of a rope do you give someone when the chance of making the playoffs are just drifting away…
Jed E. @ September 14th, 2009 at 11:46 am

@Evan. I agree with sitting him. But how could the Rangers justify it with the Union?
secondbaser @ September 14th, 2009 at 11:56 am

I don’t see how it can be avoided unless he suffers some sort of injury. The Rangers would be better this year sitting him until the playoffs – if they happen – and agreeing to pick up his 2010 option. Maybe the rest would be good for him.

For $12 million next year, maybe we’d be better sitting him the whole first half of 2010. I wouldn’t mind “reinforcements” coming in July. Until July, he should step up as a clubhouse presence and be content to have a chance at a playoff run. It would be awfully hard for Millwood to accept that like anyone else… Well maybe not Milton Bradley.
mike @ September 14th, 2009 at 11:57 am

in a vacuum, this might make sense. in the clubhouse, it would create havoc.
ROb M. @ September 14th, 2009 at 11:58 am

You can skip a start or push back a start. But you have to give him the opportunity to reach his milestone.
secondbaser @ September 14th, 2009 at 11:58 am

SIDE NOTE: just saw pedro went 8 innings and 130 pitches last night – he’s only been getting better down this stretch for Philly
leftybp @ September 14th, 2009 at 12:04 pm

milwood should sit until we are elimated, then let him pitch until he goofs up.

I would cut him, and be done with it.

he is finished
Jon @ September 14th, 2009 at 12:19 pm

Does anyone else find the following Wash quotes a bit odd? I really wonder how much coaching the Coach gets from the suits. I think it is a good thing. Wash’s love of vets makes for a contented clubhouse, but has cost several games IMHO.

“Washington’s response: “Of course. We’re not going to get to this point in the year and not have confidence in him. You’ve got to take the good with the bad.”

By Sunday, the Rangers were backing away from that.

“For me to definitely say that, I don’t know,” Washington said in an mlb.com story.”
S. Arcasm @ September 14th, 2009 at 12:36 pm

I’ve said this before, put him on a run leash, not an inning leash. He’s in the game until he gives up 2 runs, and Millwood is in charge of whether that is in the 1st or the 6th. If by doing that he can’t rack up enough innings to vest his contract, then it’s on him and no one else is to blame. Our offense should be able to make up 2 runs, but not the 5 run leash that Wash is using now with Millwood and Holland both. They are in until they put the game out of reach. That’s not fair to the team.
john in clearwater @ September 14th, 2009 at 12:57 pm

I would sit him for one start to get a little stronger then see what happens. It sure sounds like something is wrong if he has lost 5-6 mph on his fastball. Having your three key pitches thrown within 5mph of each other will not keep hitters off balance. We sure need the “good” Millwood.
JustSaying @ September 14th, 2009 at 1:04 pm

millwood should put himself on the dl……if he says he’s healthy then he’s done period for being dishonest with these kids…….he’s throwing grapefruits and we’re in contention…..or we were until he and holland pitched fat this weekend……..but the rangers have never been able to make hard decisions to win and i doubt they’ll make a winning decision on this situation…….
Jack Daddy @ September 14th, 2009 at 1:27 pm

I don’t have an answer. I do know this – if it was anyone else, he would be yanked for Nippert. I think that’s a fact. So where does that leave you?

Can’t you accomplish both things? Pull him from rotation but make him the long man? He’d still get his innings and it wouldn’t crater the clubhouse. Of course, the guy has never, to my knowledge, pitched out of the pen.

Again – I don’t have an answer.

Evan/Jeff: I’m thinking of going out there tonight, but don’t want to sit in rain delays (I don’t mind sitting in a drizzle, as long as they are playing). What is your BEST hunch, right now?
JL @ September 14th, 2009 at 1:29 pm

Any thought being given to the idea that maybe he is injured but doesn’t want to go on the DL because he then wouldn’t vest his option? I mean from the Rangers side? He clearly looks like he is gained weight, and pitches like he is out of shape…any chance he is just holding on for dear life to get the yr added to his deal?
Beesley @ September 14th, 2009 at 1:50 pm

No doubt that Millwood would probably do anything for that 12 mil that he wouldn’t get anywhere else, otherwise. Who can blame him?
Even resting him though…I think Holland needs a rest, too. How can we make these things happen? Throw in a Moscoso start?
Ranger_Rick @ September 14th, 2009 at 2:51 pm

I agreee with you Jack Daddy. I think he needs to take the long man role in the bullpen. Yes its a demotion as seen by some but maybe it rejuvenates him for the rest of the stretch and motivates him to perform better. I wish there was a way for the Rangers to cut ties with him after this season but I’m afraid they are stuck with him through next year. IMHO – next year he is the #3,4 or even 5 man in the rotation, Feldman is my ACE starting next year and he gets that #1 spot. Hunter is #2 and if Harrison proves healthy then you fill out the rotation with him, Holland and Millwood.
Jack Daddy @ September 14th, 2009 at 3:20 pm

How about we trade Millwood to the Cubs for Bradley? That sticks us with the 3rd year, but he is owed a total of $21MM over the next 2 years. What if we threw in Max Ramirez and a pitcher (say Omar Poveda) and asked them to pick up all but $3-5MM of the 2011 salary of Bradley?

This is actually a brilliant idea.
gbm @ September 14th, 2009 at 3:33 pm

don’t sit him, skip him in the rotation once, and then give him another crack at it … you wanna look Young or Kinsler in the eye after shutting down your only true veteran starter … even if he is hurt, it will look like the club is cutting money …
gbm @ September 14th, 2009 at 3:37 pm

That is a nice little trade Jack Daddy … for some reason Milton loved it hear, and performed accordingly … you keep him out of the field and solely DH, and you have something
Jim @ September 14th, 2009 at 4:05 pm

Are they (please) going to sit Holland, too?
Ranger_Rick @ September 14th, 2009 at 4:26 pm

@Jim – they shouldn’t sit Holland, he needs this experience especially working through a bad stretch in the midst of a race. If he can learn from this then his development will be that much better off and next time you may see a totally different pitcher in this situation. He is pitcing well just not getting the breaks. You can’t control it when a grounder goes straight up the middle instead to SS or SB player as positioned in the field. Let Holland pitch through this, maybe if possible let him skip a start but you can’t sit him.
Tom Hick's empty wallet @ September 14th, 2009 at 4:54 pm

Don’t be so sure that the Rangers would actually re-invest the $12M savings in new players. Especially since MLB will probably have the last say in what the Ranger’s can or can not spend this offseason. We may be better off keeping Millwood around next year than having nothing in return.
Brett in SD @ September 14th, 2009 at 5:00 pm

Good luck signing ANY free agents if the Rangers sit their #1 pitcher at the end of the season and prohibit him from earning $12M. You can argue that Millwood has pitched himself out of the rotation until you are blue (or red?) in face, but the bottom line is that potential free agent signees will either (1) demand guaranteed money from the Rangers (which the Rangers obviously don’t have) or (2) sign with another team that seemingly won’t submarine their performance incentives by forcing them to the bench just as the milestone is about to be achieved.

Also, there will be a possible mutiny in the Rangers clubhouse if the players get the sense that management is trying prevent one of their own from achieving a huge payment milestone. Even in a playoff race, and even if fans are salivating at the opportunity to make a playoff run for the first time in a decade, it’s still first and foremost about the money. It’s still a business. And if you think the players should be willing to let this slide simply because the Rangers are “only” out of the playoff race by less than double digits, then you should ask (1) whether you would be willing to sacrifice your salary next year so your company could have a strong finish to its fiscal year and (2) why Hicks doesn’t just offer to pay Millwood the $12M performance incentive in the event management decides it won’t let him play.

It’s a business and it’s about money, and sitting Millwood AND not paying him the performance milestone is simply not good long-term business for the Rangers because any player who has the chance will elect to play elsewhere.
Bobby in Bryan @ September 14th, 2009 at 6:25 pm

Don’t you think the players realize that Millie is not getting the job done? Check out the starters on other playoff-bound teams and you will notice how some of them had to sit or go to the pen because of trades to bring in better starters down the stretch.

Wasn’t Feliz trowing in the pen late in Sunday’s first game with a six run lead? Could it be that he was getting in his work before his first major league start this week?
Bobby in Bryan @ September 14th, 2009 at 6:31 pm

Oh, I forgot–isn’t Millwood very close to getting his 180 innings? Can he get the 180 in the playoffs, or does his contract say it has to be in the regular season?

Sit him for a start, and bring him back if Holland has another bad start. That gives Millie a rest, and probably gets him his innings too.