Major League Baseball’s Playoffs Are Finally Here; Haven’t We Seen This Movie Already?

Baseball’s playoffs have begun. And don’t the teams look familiar? When compared to the other three sports over the past 10 years, MLB has had less movement between the haves and have nots, according to calculation performed by yours truly. While I can’t approach Sports Sturm in detailed dissection of numbers, I offer the following in trying to examine parity in the sports leagues – and how it’s decreasing in baseball.

For the purpose of this exercise, I’ve looked at the last 10 complete regular seasons and annually grouped the teams into three areas: the elite eight who were the last ones eligible to win the overall championship (E8), the worst eight according to records (W8) and those in between (M). For baseball, the E8s are the teams that qualified for the playoffs. In the other leagues, it’s the teams that reached the conference semifinals. Not necessarily the best teams based on won-lost records, but I consider this the best way to compare teams across the sports.

Teams get one point for every season that they finished among the elite eight and get one point deducted for every season in the worst eight. The best score would be +10 (10-0-0) for 10 seasons among the last eight alive, the worst score -10 (0-0-10).

MLB has the most teams with a score of at least +5 with six: Yankees (+9), Cardinals (+7), Angels (+6), Red Sox (+6), Athletics (+5) and Braves (+5). MLB also has the most teams with a score of -5 or worse with five: Nationals (-6), Orioles (-7), Pirates (-7), Rays (-7) and Royals (-7).

The NFL has the most movement in and out of its elite and bottom feeders. Only three teams were at least +5: Colts (+6), Eagles (+6) and Patriots (+5). Only two were -5 or worse: Browns (-5) and Lions (-6).

MLB and the NBA had the fewest cases of teams jumping straight from the worst eight to the elite eight in one season or vice versa with eight compared to 14 in the NHL and 16 in the NFL.

In MLB, there were seven teams that never made the elite eight (or the playoff field) from 2000-09, including the Rangers. The NHL likewise had seven franchises fail to reach the conference semis, the NBA five and the NFL five.

Teams that failed to fall into the worst eight? The NHL had seven, MLB and the NBA five each, and the NFL only one (Colts).

It’s tougher to turn things around for a bad baseball team, and it doesn’t appear to be getting any easier. The Yankees are in the playoffs for the ninth time in 10 years. The Red Sox have made it three straight and six of seven. The Angels three straight and six of eight. The Twins are in for the fifth time in eight years. Of the four teams in the N.L. Division Series, all four have qualified at least twice in the last five years.

Seven baseball franchises have reached the elite eight at least half the time during the past 10 seasons compared to seven in the NHL, five each in the NBA and NFL. In the NFL, only three teams have spent at least half that time in the bottom eight compared to five in the NBA and NHL and six in MLB.

Does MLB need to tweak its structure in some fashion? Commissioner Bud Selig wants to institute an international draft to better level the field for incoming talent. He also wants a rookie slotting system. That tells me there’s concern about competitive balance.

I welcome your input. Below are the teams’ rankings by sport (there were some ties in MLB’s worst eight since there are no tie-breaking procedures between leagues). Tie-breakers are most appearances in the top category. An asterisk indicates an expansion team started at or during the 10-year period:

Major League Baseball

Rk. Teams Score  E8-M-W8
1. Yankees +9 9-1-0
2. Cardinals +7 7-3-0
3t. Angels +6 6-4-0
3t. Red Sox +6 6-4-0
5t. Braves +5 6-3-1
5t. Athletics +5 5-5-0
7. Twins +4 5-4-1
8. Dodgers +3 4-5-1
9t. Phillies +2 3-6-1
9t. White Sox +2 3-6-1
11. Giants +1 3-5-2
12t. Cubs even 3-4-3
12t. Diamondbacks even 3-4-3
12t. Astros even 2-6-2
12t. Indians even 2-6-2
12t. Mets even 2-6-2
12t. Marlins even 1-8-1
18t. Mariners -1 2-5-3
18t. Padres -1 2-5-3
18t. Rockies -1 2-5-3
18t. Blue Jays -1 0-9-1
22. Rangers -3 0-7-3
23t. Brewers -4 1-4-5
23t. Tigers -4 1-4-5
23t. Reds -4 0-6-4
26. Nationals -6 0-4-6
27t. Rays -7 1-1-8
27t. Orioles -7 0-3-7
27t. Pirates -7 0-3-7
27t. Royals -7 0-3-7

 

The NFL

Rk. Teams Score E8-M-W8
1t. Eagles +6 7-2-1
1t. Colts +6 6-4-0
3. Patriots +5 6-3-1
4. Steelers +4 5-4-1
5t. Titans +3 5-3-2
5t. Ravens +3 4-5-1
7t. Rams +2 4-4-2
7t. Giants +2 3-6-1
7t. Packers +2 3-6-1
7t. Panthers +2 3-6-1
7t. Seahawks +2 3-6-1
12t. Bears even 3-4-3
12t. Chargers even 3-4-3
12t. Vikings even 3-4-3
12t. Buccaneers even 2-6-2
12t. Jets even 2-6-2
12t. Saints even 2-6-2
12t. Broncos even 1-8-1
19t. Dolphins -1 2-5-3
19t. Falcons -1 2-5-3
19t. Redskins -1 2-5-3
19t. Bills -1 0-9-1
23t. Jaguars -2 2-4-4
23t. Chiefs -2 1-6-3
23t. Cowboys -2 1-6-3
26t. Raiders -3 3-1-6
26t. Cardinals -3 1-5-4
26t. 49ers -3 1-5-4
26t. Texans* -3 0-7-3
30. Bengals -4 0-6-4
31. Browns -5 0-5-5
32. Lions -6 0-4-6

 

The NBA

Rk. Teams Score E8-M-W8
1. Spurs +8 8-2-0
2t. Lakers +7 7-3-0
2t. Pistons +7 7-3-0
4. Mavericks +6 6-4-0
5t. Nets +3 5-3-2
5t. Kings +3 4-5-1
5t. Suns +3 4-5-1
5t. Pacers +3 3-7-0
9t. Celtics +2 4-2-2
9t. Heat +2 4-2-2
9t. Hornets +2 3-6-1
9t. Jazz +2 3-6-1
9t. 76ers +2 3-6-1
14. Magic +1 2-7-1
15t. Cavaliers even 4-2-4
15t. Rockets even 1-8-1
17. Nuggets -1 1-7-2
18t. Bucks -2 1-6-3
18t. Thunder -2 1-6-3
18t. TrailBlazers -2 1-6-3
21t. Timberwolves -3 1-5-4
21t. Wizards -3 1-5-4
23t. Bobcats* -4 0-1-4
23t. Knicks -4 2-2-6
23t. Bulls -4 1-4-5
23t. Clippers -4 1-4-5
23t. Warriors -4 1-4-5
23t. Raptors -4 0-6-4
29t. Hawks -7 1-1-8
29t. Grizzlies -7 0-3-7

 

The NHL

Rk. Teams Score E8-M-W8
1. Red Wings +7 7-3-0
2. Avalanche +6 7-2-1
3t. Sharks +5 6-3-1
3t. Devils +5 5-5-0
5t. Stars +4 5-4-1
5t. Senators +4 4-6-0
7t. Maple Leafs +3 5-3-2
7t. Flyers +3 4-5-1
7t. Sabres +3 4-5-1
10t. Ducks +2 4-4-2
10t. Canadiens +2 3-6-1
10t. Canucks +2 3-6-1
13t. Penguins +1 5-1-4
13t. Blues +1 3-5-2
13t. Hurricanes +1 3-5-2
16t. Rangers even 2-6-2
16t. Oilers even 1-8-1
18t. Wild* -1 1-5-2
19t. Bruins -1 2-5-3
19t. Flames -1 1-7-2
21t. Capitals -3 1-5-4
21t. Kings -3 1-5-4
23t. Lightning -4 2-2-6
23t. Blackhawks -4 1-4-5
23t. Panthers -4 0-6-4
23t. Predators -4 0-6-4
27. Coyotes -5 0-5-5
28. Thrashers* -6 0-3-6
29. Islanders -6 0-4-6
30. Blue Jackets* -7 0-1-7
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13 Comments to “Major League Baseball’s Playoffs Are Finally Here; Haven’t We Seen This Movie Already?”
  • Ehren

    @Jeff: Nice work! Not shocked that the Rangers rank higher than the Boys.

  • jcAustin

    Good post. My opinion, non-existence of parity is bad for MLB. The NFL and NBA got it right with salary caps.

  • Mavs Man

    Good work! It’s interesting to see the parity (or lack thereof) among the four major American sports.

    Note – The Charlotte Bobcats need an asterisk.

  • Jack Daddy

    Nice job Jeff.

    I don’t think it’s as much $$ driven in baseball. I think a large payroll and resources allows teams to screw it up (Bradley, Zito, Penny) and get right back on the horse and not miss a beat, but I think these teams that continually win in baseball have strong foundations (scouting, drafting and player development) to their organizations that allow them to stay at the top. See the Twins. When the Yankees were dominating from a title perspective, it was the home developed players that led the way, supplemented by very smart, inexpensive (oneill, tino, Scott B.) veteran pickups that fit their model. When they really started throwing huge sums of $$ at the thing, they continued to win regular season games but began to fail in the playoffs (I think Clemens was there for just 1 of the titles). Those championships were on the backs of Jeter, Bernie, Rivera, Posada, Pettite.

    Little known fact – guess who had the most wins in the decade of the 80s? The Yankees. But that was largely considered a failure of a decade for them as they didn’t win a single title and wasted a ton of money, depleating their farm in the process.

    The Angels burst onto their recent prominence on the backs of strong player development (lackey won game 7 as a rookie) and only supplemented with F.A.s after they had established their core. Weaver, Lackey, Santana and Saunders were all developed (as was FRod). Their big pitching signing was Escobar and he has been a bust.

    Look at the Atheletics. Smart organizations can lay a foundation without a top 7 payroll. It does help to have the $$ too though!

    Money allows a team like Boston to give a guys like Byred $20/3yrs to be a 4th OF. But if the Rangers hopes of competing are on bringing back Byrd at all costs, than the core isn’t as strong as we have been led to believe. A smart organization should be able to compete year in, year out with a $75MM payroll. It just has a smaller margin for error.

    Thanks for posting something related to baseball. I was having the urge to post a comment and this is only forum that I enjoy doing so.

  • yocoolz

    @Jack,
    I agree that these numbers are a little more complicated than first glance. If you break it down by champions, baseball would seem to have more parity. Since 1980, MLB has had 18 different champions, where the NFL has had 15, the NHL 13, and the NBA 8. It’s hard to complain about not having parity when last year’s Series was Tampa Bay & Philly, following a Colorado Rockies appearance the prior year.

    What causes the repetition in the baseball playoffs is the development of a good pitching staff, which is hard to do. But once it is in place, you can simply fit pieces in around it. Without that staff, free agency and lots of money don’t help most teams. The only thing a salary cap would do is hurt the teams that can build by spending, the Yankees and Red Sox, and MLB doesn’t want that. A salary cap won’t help the Royals, if they can’t put other good players around Grienke.

  • Jeff Miller

    @Mavs Man: Thanks for mentioning the Bobcats. I also fixed their numbers since they haven’t been around the entire 10 years.

  • Jack Daddy

    @yocoolz – agree 100%

    @jeff – i think you’d be surprised by how many of the loyal cornerians will continue to come here and post if you continue to follow the winter stove league. good work.

  • Mavs Man

    @Jeff: No problem. The Bobcats are pretty easy to overlook. We’ll see if Larry Brown can work his magic and make them into something relevant.

    @Jack Daddy: Totally agree with your last sentence. I hope the baseball posts continue somewhat during the offseason, as I cannot bring myself to return to the other place. Still far too many inmates running the forum asylum for my taste.

  • A. Stephens, Raleigh NC

    @ Jack Daddy, Mavs Man
    Agree, I’d like to keep coming around but they’re going to have to step up in the way of baseball talk. The DMN blog is a beat-down though I’ll check Evan out when I can.

  • Longhorn Matt

    The NFL is the model of parity and is also the most popular sport in America. Coincidence? I think not. Baseball may be called “the national pastime,” but the NFL’s attendence, TV ratings, and revenues blow MLB away. When more teams have a realistic chance of making the playoffs, more fans will be interested in those teams. While an international draft and a rookie slotting system would help, I do not think that MLB can approach the NFL’s level of parity until MLB joins the other major sports and institutes a salary cap. While getting a salary cap in place would obviously be an extremely arduous process, I think that it would be worth it to prevent the Yankees from spending the GDP of a small country on free agents.

    Keep up the great work, Jeff.

  • Bennie

    Thanks to everyone who joined the DMN Bloggerheads fantasy baseball league that I started on Yahoo this year. I am not sure which poster was which player, but “CM1989″ finished in first place. “Raging Bulls”(That’s me) and “9 dudes & a DH” finished in a tie for second place. It was a lot of fun. I will do it again next year.

    So which of you is “CM1989″?

    Who else played in our league this year and what was your team’s name?

  • JustSaying

    dodgers win…..dodgers win……oh yeah baby vicente in the playoffs……..driving around the ballpark in his lamborghina yelling “remember the alamo”………..i love it…….yee-hah!

  • JustSaying

    jolly rangers in 7th i think……