Bringing Back The Byrd

It’s only been seven days since the Texas Rangers ended their ’09 campaign with a loss to King Felix and the Mariners in Seattle. It’ll be another 176 days before they take the field again — not that we’re counting or anything. And though there’s still a month of baseball left for the elite, or perhaps more aptly labeled, well-funded teams, it’s just not quite the same without a hometown team to root for.

So while a long offseason looms for us Dallas die-hards, the question of what key changes will be made to the Rangers roster for 2010 will likely have an answer by January. In truth, Texas doesn’t figure to throw a lot of money around on the  free agent market because, well, Tom Hicks doesn’t have it. It doesn’t help that the Rangers owe Vicente Padilla and Frank Catalanotto a couple million each to buyout their contracts, despite the fact that Cat hasn’t donned a Rangers uni in over a year and Padilla spent his Saturday pitching the Dodgers to their second straight NLCS berth (I slept until two and ate a day-old burrito. To each his own, I guess). But the Rangers supposedly aren’t looking to shed payroll, and if Evan Grant’s math is right, Jon Daniels and company could have at least a little cash to play with over the coming months.

Which brings us to Marlon Byrd.

Byrd started 100 games for the Rangers in center field this season and tallied another 41 starts in the corner outfield positions, providing much needed versatility in an outfield plagued with injuries and inconsistency. He got nearly half of his 547 at bats in prime run-producing positions, rewarding Ron Washinton’s confidence in him by posting a combined slash line of .305/.370/.554 while driving in 55 runs from the three and four spots in the order. By all accounts, he was a tremendous leader and clubhouse presence on a team rife with 20-somethings. He’s said that he wants to remain a Ranger. His teammates have spoken out about how vital his return is, with Michael Young being his most vocal supporter. Even the normally tight-lipped GM Jon Daniels, who prefers to play most things close to the vest, had this to say in a recent chat with Richard Durrett…

As we’ve told Marlon and his agent Sam Levinson, we’d like to have him back. Now it comes down to what fits for us financially, given the makeup of this team, and what he feels he’d accept. We’re not at the point just yet of exchanging specifics #s but we probably will be soon. If he’s not back, we have quality depth in the OF and we’ll also pursue alternatives via trade/FA.

It seems all parties want to get a deal done. So what’s the problem? At 32-years-old, Byrd is running out of time to really cash in on his playing career.  Sure, he’s earned about $5 million in the last two years, which is more than most people see in a lifetime. But that’s a pittance compared to what some of his peers make, and it’s what Alex Rodriguez pulled in for a month’s work this year, not including endorsements. So while Byrd and the Rangers have both said they’d like to reach an agreement, that’s no guarantee. Because talk is cheap, and Marlon Byrd won’t be.

When Byrd arrived in Arlington three years ago, he had just spent the ’05 and ’06 seasons struggling for playing time with the Washington Nationals, who, incidentally, finished last in the N.L. East both years. Byrd was 29-years-old, owned a career OPS of .692, and had been designated for assignment by one of the worst teams in baseball. After spending spring training with the Rangers, Byrd was promptly sent to triple-A in favor of guys like Brad Wilkerson and Jerry Hairston, Jr. In other words, his career was hanging by a thread.

But he got his chance in late May of 2007, and played in 109 of the Rangers’ final 116 games while posting career highs in batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS.  Prior to his stint in Texas, Byrd had never hit 10 homers, driven in 50 runs, or cracked an .800 OPS at the Major League level. He’s accomplished all three of those feats in each of his seasons as a Ranger.

So, obviously, Marlon Byrd’s been productive in Texas. He’s a gap hitter with a solid average and 10-20 home run power, putting him in the same category as quite a few well-known major leaguers. Offensively speaking, Byrd’s numbers compare to those of Randy Winn, Jose Guillen, or Alex Rios. Carl Crawford and Shane Victorino, save for the stolen base numbers, also bear a statistical resemblance and, to a lesser extent, so does Raul Ibañez. Though Ibañez’s statistics in the years leading up to his ’08 free agency were definitely superior to Byrd’s, they’re at least in the same stratosphere, and Ibañez managed to overcome the recession and land a three year, $31 million contract at the age of 36.

Then again, Bobby Abreu only managed a one year deal worth $5 million despite owning six — and now seven — straight seasons with at least 100 RBI, so who knows. But if there’s one common thread between all the aforementioned players, it’s that they make a lot more money than Marlon Byrd did last year. Jose Guillen earned $12 million with the Royals as part of a three year, $36 million contract he signed at 32-years-old, the same age Byrd is now. Carl Crawford brought in $8.2 million, Randy Winn made $9.6 million, and Alex Rios signed a six year, $64 million extension in 2008.

According to FanGraphs, Byrd accounted for 2.4 WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, which ranked him as the 21st best outfielder in the A.L. and put him in the middle of the pack.

At least financially, Byrd’s in good company. But on the down side, he ranked second to last in walk rate and dead last in BB/K ratio among all qualifying A.L. outfielders in 2009. He made some spectacular diving catches on defense, but those may have been covering up for a lack of range brought on by below-average speed in center field. While Byrd’s UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) was 2.1 in left field and 1.6 in right field, it was an ugly -5.3 in center, a number that only figures to get worse with age.

So, if the Rangers plan on bringing Byrd back to roam center field, relieving Josh Hamilton’s weary body and giving Julio Borbon time to learn the position, they might want to think again. While Byrd seems to catch everything he gets to, he might not get to as much as he should, and the notion of sticking him in a corner outfield spot seems to defeat the purpose of bringing him back, especially with Hamilton, Borbon, David Murphy, and Nelson Cruz already available there.

All things considered, it’s hard to imagine that Byrd could land an Ibañez-type deal that pays him $10 million annually. More than likely, Byrd will get a three or four year deal that will make him $6-8 million a year. The question is, are the Rangers willing to shell out $21 million for three more years of Marlon? It’s not the type of contract that would handcuff a franchise, and with Kevin Millwood’s salary coming off the books at the end of 2010, the Rangers could conceivably add a few big contracts in the coming years without actually adding payroll in the long-term. But if Tom Hicks’ financial situation means Marlon Byrd is the only big name the Rangers can bring in for the upcoming season, is that really enough?

Byrd figures to qualify as a type-B free agent, meaning if the Rangers offer him arbitration — which they should — and Byrd politely declines it — which he should — then at the very least, Texas would be compensated with a “sandwich pick,” which, unfortunately, isn’t as delicious as it sounds. MLB compensates teams that lose type-A and type-B free agents with an extra pick that falls between the 1st and 2nd rounds of the amateur draft. Recently, the Rangers have used sandwich picks to snag Julio Borbon and former Fresno State ace Tanner Scheppers, who could be at the top of Ranger prospect sheets next year.

So, in reality, there could be some value in losing Byrd. Not only could it free up the cash to make a big splash in a greater area of need, but it would give the Rangers the means to acquire another high-profile prospect. If Hicks decides re-signing Byrd doesn’t mean the Rangers are done for the winter, or Marlon decides he’d be willing to stick around for a one or two year deal, then his return likely won’t even be an issue.

But for all the strides the Rangers made in 2009, they still finished 10 games behind the Angels in the A.L. West and eight games back of the Red Sox in the Wild Card. And while it’s truly impossible to put a value on what a guy like Byrd can bring to a clubhouse, the fact remains that the Rangers have more players that can replace the production of a Marlon Byrd than, say, a Ben Sheets, assuming he’s healthy. All we know is, come April, the Rangers will take the field again, and Marlon Byrd will be ready to show off his fat new contract. They might just have to happen in two different places.