Fixing A Leaky Pen

When Jimmy Rollins sent Jonathan Broxton’s 99 mph fastball screaming into the right-center gap of Citizens Bank Park last night, Dodgers right fielder Andre Ethier chased obligatorily after it, although he never really had a chance. The ball bounced off the wall, just below the scoreboard, and dribbled along the warning track before Ethier could finally scoop it up and fire it in to shortstop Rafael Furcal. Philadelphia’s Eric Bruntlett scored easily from second base, and Carlos Ruiz, despite his 5’10″, 216-pound frame and catcher’s knees, made it all the way around from first before Furcal could get the ball out of his glove. After being an out away from tying the NLCS at two games apiece, the Dodgers fell dangerously close to elimination with a 5-4 loss.

Broxton was only the second reliever to play a major role Monday, as just hours before Yankee closer Mariano Rivera worked out of a tight spot in the bottom of the 10th of their game with Los Angeles to keep it going. After the Angels put runners on the corners with no outs, Rivera forced three straight ground outs to push the game into a second extra frame, and though the Angels ended up winning in 11 innings, Rivera’s performance is a testament to the value of having a dominant pitcher in the back of a bullpen.

To this point, the ’09 playoffs haven’t been kind to closers. Maligned Angel’s closer Brian Fuentes blew a save in the 11th inning Saturday after allowing a homer to Alex Rodriguez. One day earlier, former Ranger Chan Ho Park earned an 8th inning blown save after he gave up two runs to the Dodgers. In the postseason’s first round, Huston Street allowed a run in the 9th inning of a tied game three against the Phillies. One night later, he came into the 9th inning of game four with a 4-2 lead, and left two outs later with a 5-4 deficit. Boston’s Jonathan Pabelbon, Minnesota’s Joe Nathan, and St. Louis’ Ryan Franklin all blew two-run, 9th inning leads in their respective divisional series, leading their teams to early ousters. Through 62-9th inning outs, the equivalent of 21 innings, 15 runs scored in the ALDS and NLDS, and there have been nearly as many blown saves (9) as saves (10).

Which brings us to the Rangers. Although they didn’t quite qualify for the postseason this year, it’s hard to imagine that they wouldn’t have been contributing to the bullpen debacle had they made it in. The Rangers closer situation was an interesting one in 2009. It started about as well as anyone could have hoped — with 17.2 scoreless innings and 11 saves from Frank Francisco — but the remainder of the season was marked with injury, uncertainty, a lot of collar loosening, and plenty of brow wiping. It got so bad by season’s end that some fans were calling for rookie Neftali Feliz or soft-tossing sidearmer Darren O’Day to take over the final frame. But with Feliz likely moving back into the rotation next year, O’Day’s unproven track record, and the relative unpredictability of relievers from year to year, should the Rangers be looking to stabilize the back of their pen?

Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson were Texas’ two closers in 2009 and, for the most part, they did a decent job. The pair combined for 39 saves, 23 holds, and eight blown saves while rotating back and forth between the closer and set-up roles. In all likelihood, they’ll be dueling it out for the same spots next year, barring some major acquisition or philosophical change.  So let’s break down the the candidates…

Frank Francisco

2009 Season

Francisco started the year on fire, rattling off 17.2 scoreless innings and converting his first 11 save opportunities before allowing an Adam Kennedy home run on May 31. He earned his 12th consecutive save on June 3 before making his second trip to the DL a week later. That’s when the wheels came off. From June 25 on, Francisco posted a 6.51 ERA and blew four saves while converting only 13. He finished the year with a 3.83 ERA and showed an unnerving tendency to implode.

The Good

Francisco has maintained excellent strikeout rates (9.95 K/9 for his career, 11.18 since 2008) and has steadily improved his control, walking a career-low 15 batters in 2009. He’s got a strong, mid-90s fastball to go with a hard curve and a good splitter, and he’s shown the confidence to throw any pitch in any count. He’s aggressive with hitters and seems to have the ability to forget about bad outings, a quality not all pitchers possess.

The Bad

Francisco is an extreme fly ball pitcher who plays in a park known to be a home run haven. For his career, his ground ball/fly ball ratio is 0.49, well below league average, and this year it reached 0.43, which was the lowest it’s been since his rookie season. Not surprisingly, this has caused a high HR/9 ratio for a closer of near 1.0, and it’s also led to a lot of extra base hits. In 2009 and 2008, Francisco allowed 40 percent and 43 percent of his total hits to go for extra bases, while the league average is 34 percent. His lack of grounders has also contributed to his forcing only one double play in 72 opportunities over the last two years. He’s not great at getting ahead of hitters and he seemed to have trouble stopping the bleeding when he struggled — in his four blown saves, Francisco allowed 15 runs in 2.2 innings.

C.J. Wilson

2009 Season

Coming off an awful 2008 campaign in which he allowed 35 runs in 46.1 innings, C.J. Wilson had a career year in ’09, setting personal bests in appearances, innings, ERA, strikeouts, and holds. Still, Wilson had his problems. Control issues led to a high walk rate and a 1.33 WHIP, which isn’t good for a reliever, and he was consistently inconsistent throughout the season.

The Good

Wilson’s got electric stuff. His fastball usually sits in the low- to mid-90s with plenty of life, though at times he cranked it up to 97 last year. His slider can disappear when he’s throwing it well, and he throws a solid changeup as well. Unlike Francisco, Wilson gets plenty of ground balls, leading to a low homer rate. He had a career high 10.26 K/9 ratio in 2009, and he dominated left-handed hitters to the tune of .206/.310/.237.

The Bad

Despite his arm, Wilson has a tendency to be too careful and not trust his stuff. Like Francisco, he struggled to get ahead in the count, and he especially struggled when facing the first batter of an outing. His walk totals, down slightly from the last two years, is still too high and put him in a lot of dangerous situations. Command is an issue, as it varies greatly from game to game, and righties can hit him fairly well. There have been questions about his maturity and whether he has the mental make up to be an effective closer.

Neftali Feliz

2009 Season

Feliz made his Major League debut in ’09, and did it in style — he struck out the first four batters he faced. Though he struggled a bit in September, he finished the season having allowed six runs in 31 innings while striking out 39. Truthfully, he’s not a closer candidate for the Rangers, at least not going into next year. But there some who think he doesn’t possess the secondary stuff to succeed as a starter, and that his ultimate role in the majors will be in the back of a bullpen.

The Good

The stuff. Feliz can hit 100 on a radar gun and make it look like a game of catch. And that’s not the best part. His fastball moves… a lot. His slurve and splitter were a pleasant surprises and he showed a fearlessness and cool that well exceed his young age. Opponents hit .124 off him with a .210 slugging percentage, and he held righties to an OPS of .274. Ridiculous.

The Bad

He’s young. He’ll turn 22 near the beginning of next season, and management didn’t seem to like the idea of pitching him more than a few times a week. His velocity was inconsistent, causing curiosity as to whether he was tiring out. Also, the Rangers seem intent on making him a starter, which is the right thing to do. With his stuff, Feliz could easily develop into a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, and getting 200 innings of Feliz annually would be much better than 60.

Outlook

There’s no doubt that the bullpen needs to be upgraded in the offseason, even if most of the changes happen internally. The middle innings became a major weak spot for the Rangers last year as Jason Jennings and Eddie Guardado showed an increasing inability to get outs and Neftali Feliz was kept on a short leash. Darren O’Day was spectacular in 2009, but it’s hard to know how he’ll perform next season. Relievers by nature are unpredictable from year to year, and pitchers with a gimmick, like O’Day’s sidearm delivery, seem especially prone to being figured out.

But the back of the bullpen shouldn’t be a major concern. Injuries really seemed to hamper what started as an excellent season for Francisco, but if he can get healthy he should be able to play out 2010 as the closer. Wilson’s inconsistency can be maddening at times, but three of his four blown saves came in the 8th inning or earlier, meaning he was 14 for 15 in 9th inning save chances. So long as he doesn’t have another year of regression like 2008, his stuff should play well in the 8th or 9th inning.

And with the price of big name closers commonly reaching eight digits a season, the Rangers simply can’t afford to chase after a Jose Valverde type this winter. Besides, the Mets, Angels, and Indians spent big money last offseason on Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes, and Kerry Wood respectively in hopes that they would solve their late-inning issues, but they’ve turned out to be busts so far.