Nice post, but your data is flawed. Dallas has had 163 first down plays. The Cowboys have committed 6 turnovers from scrimmage: an interception on first down, an interception and a fumble on second down, and two interceptions and a fumble on third down.

Your data shows a discrepancy between second and third down, where 90 second down plays were converted into first downs 30 times. That should leave 58 third down plays (minus the two turnovers on second down). Your data shows Dallas ran 51 plays on third down.

I suspect that Dallas gained enough yards on 70 first down plays to convert play into another first down (which is an outstanding 43%). Allowing for the first down interception that would leave 92 second down plays. The Cowboys converted 30 of the second down plays into first downs, leaving 60 third down opportunities (as confirmed through NFL.com: http://www.nfl.com/teams/dallascowboys/statistics?team=DAL).

As the NFL site notes, 22 of those third down plays were converted into first downs. Your data shows that Dallas only converted 20 third down opportunities into first downs.

Whether penalties are included in your data or not, the numbers still have discrepancies when compared to the official NFL site statistics. Still, I enjoyed the article.

I would like to recommend that instead of using 8+ yards as a cut-off, that you add several other categories for first, second, and third downs: down and 8-10 yards, down and 11-14 yards, and down and 15+ yards. This would help illustrate some of the impact sacks and penalties have on conversion rates.

In addition, I would like to point out that since Romo has been starting in 2006, Tony has never had more than 3 games per year without throwing an interception. This season, after 5 games, Tony already has matched his career-high of interception-less games per season, with three.

While the 2nd and 3rd and long statistics are way down from last season (Romo had one of the highest passer ratings in the NFL last season on third and 8+), Tony’s interceptions are also way down. It seems like some progress is being made on Romo’s decision-making.

Jason Garret and Sean Payton were on the Giants team in 2000/2001. Garret was the backup QB and Payton was the offensive coordinator.

The goal on 2nd and long is to get a first OR set up a 3rd and short, where they are pretty successful.

For a productive offense it’s interesting to see that the Cowboys are less productive on first downs than I would expect. 47 2nd and 8+ downs vs. 43 2nd and 7 or less yards to go.

Let’s go easy on sweet, young, tender TC but I have to agree with Les. S. Moore. Remember advice from the Bard: brevity is the soul of wit. You could probably trim half of the words you used and have an informative, crisply written analysis.

If a team has 2nd and 15 and gets 14 yards you are counting that play as a failure. Do you really consider that a failure?