D

Fixing A Leaky Pen

When Jimmy Rollins sent Jonathan Broxton’s 99 mph fastball screaming into the right-center gap of Citizens Bank Park last night, Dodgers right fielder Andre Ethier chased obligatorily after it, although he never really had a chance. The ball bounced off the wall, just below the scoreboard, and dribbled along the warning track before Ethier could finally scoop it up and fire it in to shortstop Rafael Furcal. Philadelphia’s Eric Bruntlett scored easily from second base, and Carlos Ruiz, despite his 5′10″, 216-pound frame and catcher’s knees, made it all the way around from first before Furcal could get the ball out of his glove. After being an out away from tying the NLCS at two games apiece, the Dodgers fell dangerously close to elimination with a 5-4 loss.

Broxton was only the second reliever to play a major role Monday, as just hours before Yankee closer Mariano Rivera worked out of a tight spot in the bottom of the 10th of their game with Los Angeles to keep it going. After the Angels put runners on the corners with no outs, Rivera forced three straight ground outs to push the game into a second extra frame, and though the Angels ended up winning in 11 innings, Rivera’s performance is a testament to the value of having a dominant pitcher in the back of a bullpen.

To this point, the ‘09 playoffs haven’t been kind to closers. Maligned Angel’s closer Brian Fuentes blew a save in the 11th inning Saturday after allowing a homer to Alex Rodriguez. One day earlier, former Ranger Chan Ho Park earned an 8th inning blown save after he gave up two runs to the Dodgers. In the postseason’s first round, Huston Street allowed a run in the 9th inning of a tied game three against the Phillies. One night later, he came into the 9th inning of game four with a 4-2 lead, and left two outs later with a 5-4 deficit. Boston’s Jonathan Pabelbon, Minnesota’s Joe Nathan, and St. Louis’ Ryan Franklin all blew two-run, 9th inning leads in their respective divisional series, leading their teams to early ousters. Through 62-9th inning outs, the equivalent of 21 innings, 15 runs scored in the ALDS and NLDS, and there have been nearly as many blown saves (9) as saves (10).

Which brings us to the Rangers. Although they didn’t quite qualify for the postseason this year, it’s hard to imagine that they wouldn’t have been contributing to the bullpen debacle had they made it in. The Rangers closer situation was an interesting one in 2009. It started about as well as anyone could have hoped — with 17.2 scoreless innings and 11 saves from Frank Francisco — but the remainder of the season was marked with injury, uncertainty, a lot of collar loosening, and plenty of brow wiping. It got so bad by season’s end that some fans were calling for rookie Neftali Feliz or soft-tossing sidearmer Darren O’Day to take over the final frame. But with Feliz likely moving back into the rotation next year, O’Day’s unproven track record, and the relative unpredictability of relievers from year to year, should the Rangers be looking to stabilize the back of their pen?

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Pitching Profile – Final Edition

Just like we did at the end of May, at the end of June , and at the end of August - Here is the Final edition of our look at the Rangers starting rotation. The point of this exercise is to dig a bit deeper than the basic stats for each starting pitcher to see what they are good at – or what they are not good at.

In the final analysis, 10 pitchers started games for the Rangers this season. Kevin Millwood (31), Scott Feldman (31), Derek Holland (21), Tommy Hunter (19), Vicente Padilla (18), Brandon McCarthy (17), Matt Harrison (11), Dustin Nippert (10), Kris Benson (2), and Doug Mathis (2). This study will focus on the eight pitchers who have made at least 10 starts.

There is plenty of good news to report as they worked a significantly higher amount of innings while doing a great job at dropping the rotation’s ERA.

Both Kevin Millwood and Scott Feldman made over 30 starts with 18 Quality Starts each. That number may not blow your socks off, but those two seasons can rival pretty much any season we have seen around here by a starting pitcher in an awfully long time.

There were other signs of optimism as well, as the first year of the Nolan Ryan/Mike Maddux program seems like a perfect diving board to 2010.

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Catching Cold: Taking A Look At The Ranger Catchers

A year from now, assuming the Minnesota Twins aren’t still battling for a World Series title, Joe Mauer will be sitting at home and pondering his future. Mauer’s contract expires after next season, and he’ll have his choice of where he wants to play baseball in 2011. If he leaves his native Minnesota for, say, New York or Boston or Los Angeles, he could very well sign one of the richest contracts in baseball history. If he stays with the Twins, he’ll probably have to settle for less… somewhere in the $15 million a year range. In other words, Joe’s no ordinary Joe.

The reason for all the hype around Mauer is quite simple: good catchers are hard to come by, and a truly great catcher, like Mauer, can be once in a generation. Which helps to explain why only one catcher in the last 32 years — the Rangers’ own Ivan Rodriguez in 1999 — has earned an MVP award in either league (though that could  change in a month if Mauer is named A.L. MVP, as expected). It’s also why rookie catcher Matt Wieters, who the normally conservative PECOTA system pegged for a .949 OPS this year, received a standing ovation as he approached the plate for his first major league at-bat back in May.

There just aren’t many guys that can withstand six month’s worth of beatings behind the plate and still crank out a hit or two per game. So when Texas traded Gerald Laird, a solid starting catcher with two controllable years left, because they seemingly had too much catching last December, quite a few teams looked on in envy. The parting was mutual: Laird wanted a chance to be “the man” behind the plate, and the Rangers were ready to show off a deep farm system that boasted prospects like Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Taylor Teagarden, and Max Ramirez, as well as Tomas Telis, Manny Pina, and Leonel De Los Santos at the lower levels of the minors. But less than a year later, things aren’t so rosy. After a season in which none of their young catchers established themselves at the big league level, the Rangers have been left to wonder if their future backstop is even on the current roster.

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Bringing Back The Byrd

It’s only been seven days since the Texas Rangers ended their ‘09 campaign with a loss to King Felix and the Mariners in Seattle. It’ll be another 176 days before they take the field again — not that we’re counting or anything. And though there’s still a month of baseball left for the elite, or perhaps more aptly labeled, well-funded teams, it’s just not quite the same without a hometown team to root for.

So while a long offseason looms for us Dallas die-hards, the question of what key changes will be made to the Rangers roster for 2010 will likely have an answer by January. In truth, Texas doesn’t figure to throw a lot of money around on the  free agent market because, well, Tom Hicks doesn’t have it. It doesn’t help that the Rangers owe Vicente Padilla and Frank Catalanotto a couple million each to buyout their contracts, despite the fact that Cat hasn’t donned a Rangers uni in over a year and Padilla spent his Saturday pitching the Dodgers to their second straight NLCS berth (I slept until two and ate a day-old burrito. To each his own, I guess). But the Rangers supposedly aren’t looking to shed payroll, and if Evan Grant’s math is right, Jon Daniels and company could have at least a little cash to play with over the coming months.

Which brings us to Marlon Byrd.

Byrd started 100 games for the Rangers in center field this season and tallied another 41 starts in the corner outfield positions, providing much needed versatility in an outfield plagued with injuries and inconsistency. He got nearly half of his 547 at bats in prime run-producing positions, rewarding Ron Washinton’s confidence in him by posting a combined slash line of .305/.370/.554 while driving in 55 runs from the three and four spots in the order. By all accounts, he was a tremendous leader and clubhouse presence on a team rife with 20-somethings. He’s said that he wants to remain a Ranger. His teammates have spoken out about how vital his return is, with Michael Young being his most vocal supporter. Even the normally tight-lipped GM Jon Daniels, who prefers to play most things close to the vest, had this to say in a recent chat with Richard Durrett…

As we’ve told Marlon and his agent Sam Levinson, we’d like to have him back. Now it comes down to what fits for us financially, given the makeup of this team, and what he feels he’d accept. We’re not at the point just yet of exchanging specifics #s but we probably will be soon. If he’s not back, we have quality depth in the OF and we’ll also pursue alternatives via trade/FA.

It seems all parties want to get a deal done. So what’s the problem? At 32-years-old, Byrd is running out of time to really cash in on his playing career.  Sure, he’s earned about $5 million in the last two years, which is more than most people see in a lifetime. But that’s a pittance compared to what some of his peers make, and it’s what Alex Rodriguez pulled in for a month’s work this year, not including endorsements. So while Byrd and the Rangers have both said they’d like to reach an agreement, that’s no guarantee. Because talk is cheap, and Marlon Byrd won’t be.

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Football 301: Decoding Jason Garrett – Week 1

DISCLAIMER: This is not for everyone. It may not be for you. This is a statistical study of the Cowboys offense with lots of numbers that may make your head tired if you are not up to it. Read it only if it is something that is of interest to you. If not, see you tomorrow.

Sunday in Tampa, the Cowboys offense put up a rare display. 462 yards is amazing. 52 plays is rare. 462 yards in 52 plays so off the charts silly that we might be wasting our time to read any meaning into it.

How crazy is 52 plays for 462 yards? 8.9 yards per play. You may never see that again, so save the tape.

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Pitching Profile – August Edition

Just like we did at the end of May, and at the end of June (sorry about the end of July) – Here is the latest extensive look at the Rangers starting rotation. The point of this exercise is to dig a bit deeper than the basic stats for each starting pitcher to see what they are good at – or what they are not good at.

In the 129 games that were played before the calendar turned to September, 9 pitchers have started games for the Rangers. Kevin Millwood (26), Scott Feldman (24), Derek Holland (16), Tommy Hunter (12), Matt Harrison (11), Brandon McCarthy (11), Dustin Nippert (7), Kris Benson (2), and Doug Mathis (2). This study will focus on the six pitchers who have made at least 10 starts. The other 3 run into sample size issues that might render verdicts a bit meaningless.

Proceed at your own risk – for stat nerds only:

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Fun With Small Sample Stats

Mr. Happy is averaging 15.4 strikeouts per nine innings…and 4.50 pitches per plate appearance.

That makes me giggle.

My Intern Loves Stats As Much As I Do

Working at America’s Favorite Radio Station, we have the occasion to experience quite a few interns that come and go through our station on their ways to careers of their own. Well, under normal circumstances, I would never reprint one of their essays that they bounce off me. But, TC Fleming is not a normal intern (in my estimation). He is a young, promising sports dork. And as an older sports dork, I should know.

Anyway, he wrote an essay this week that I wanted to share with you. It is all about the strides the Rangers havemade this season in the defensive department. I am not going to lie to you, this might be a bit deeper than some would like to go – given the enormous amount of Bill James-type statistics he uses, but if you enjoy that sort of data analysis, then you very much might enjoy this.

TC the intern looks at why the Rangers are better in 2009. It is all about the gloves:

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The Big Bust Theory: Texas Rangers Struggle In Parks Where Home Runs Are Still Rare

OAKLAND, Calif.  – After months of hair-pulling and hand-wringing, the Rangers have come to this manner of describing their offense:

“It is what it is.”

The Rangers dig the long ball. They hate taking pitches. They are firm believers in pitch equality. They will swing at a fastball, curveball, slider without discriminating. They live by the homer and they die by the lack of it.

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Holland Ace Sauce

That’s it, I suppose.

The Rangers never would have traded Derek Holland (and if they had, I would have unleashed a criminal flurry of expletives directed at people I actually like).

The only chance Texas had to land Roy Halladay was to convince the Blue Jays that Neftali Feliz was as good, or better. The Rangers know better, but maybe, just maybe, they could convince J.P. Riccardi and his scouting team that Feliz was the bigger talent with the brighter future as many outside of the organization — including both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus– believe (but not me).

Now, there’s no way.

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Ask Sports Sturm: Pujols The Great

Ronald sent me this week’s project – which I referenced on the air yesterday, but now you have it in print. This is a pretty good one. Check this out:

SportsSturm-

Maybe you can help me with this. Albert Pujols has pretty much wrapped up the “best hitter of the decade”. It looks like he will win the decade triple crown for the National League. Has any other player ever done that? That guy is too good.

And yes, I am a die hard Cardinals fan.

Thanks.

Ronald

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Half Time: A Look At The Texas Rangers At The Season’s Halfway Point Compared to 2008

ANAHEIM, Calif. – The Rangers reached the halfway point of the 2009 season in Monday’s 9-4 loss to Los Angeles. As soon as tonight’s game becomes official, there will be fewer games remaining in the season than have been played. It’s a good time to look at some numbers to see exactly where the team is better and where it is worse. Not surprisingly in virtually every pitching category and every defensive measurement, they are significantly better. Offensively, mostly they are worse.

What follows is a statistical comparison between the 2008 team and the 2009 team along with some commentary on statistical categories that particularly stand out. Your thoughts, as always, are welcomed and encouraged.

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In Blog Eat Blog World, Lone Star Ball Dogs Inside Corner After Inside Corner Dogs Rob Neyer

In regards to the very animated conversation about Kevin Millwood’s success this season, Adam Morris takes me to task on Lonestarball with lots of thoughtful reasoning. And then the discussion spills over to Facebook. Bottom line: I’m sticking by my thinking that Millwood’s numbers this year have improved significantly because he is in better shape and because he’s got a better group of fielders behind him. Richard Durrett also weighs in at the DMN’s baseball blog.

The argument about how low his strand rate in 2007 could be turned on its head. You could also argue that his strand rate that year would have been significantly higher – thus bringing down his ERA – had he an adequate set fielders behind him.

Good stuff all around. Vigorous baseball conversation. Awe. Some.

ESPN’s Rob Neyer Says Kevin Millwood Has Been More Lucky Than Good; I Say ‘Wake Up, Rob Neyer’

Kevin Millwood leads the AL in innings pitched. He is tied for fourth in quality starts (12), one shy of the AL lead. He ranks fifth in the AL in ERA (2.80). Pitching in a park notorious for being hitter-friendly, he has a compiled the fourth-best home ERA (2.49) in the AL.

By almost any evaluation, Millwood has been one of the top five or six pitchers in the AL this season.

Unless, of course, you are ESPN stat-meister, Rob Neyer. Neyer’s take: He’s been lucky (hat-tip to Jack Daddy for the column) . According to Neyer and R.J. Anderson of the statistical-analysis site Fangraphs,  Millwood is stranding too many runners. Yep, he’s prohibited too many runners who have reached base from scoring, thus underscoring why Millwood has been so lucky and not good. And here I am thinking that not allowing runners to score is actually an attribute for a pitcher.

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Pitching Profile – June Edition

Just like we did at the end of May, here is a good, extensive look at the Rangers starting rotation. The point of this exercise is to dig a bit deeper than the basic stats for each starting pitcher to see what they are good at – or what they are not good at.

Through the end of June, the Rangers rotation has taken the ball 76 times. Only 6 pitchers have made more than 2 starts, so we will focus on those guys. Kevin Millwood, Scott Feldman, and Vicente Padilla have taken the most turns, then Matt Harrison and Brandon McCarthy both have 11 starts a piece. Finally, Derek Holland has 6 starts under his belt.

As you might expect, June was not a bed of roses for any part of this team. Let’s take a look and see how it worked out for the starting rotation.

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Kevin Millwood Vs. Jered Weaver: An All-Star Pitching Matchup, But Will They Be All-Stars?

In addition to the slightly-less-than-oppressive heat currently blanketing the area, tonight features real incentive for fans to stream to Rangers Ballpark In Arlington.

It’s Dollar Hot Dog Night.

That seems to bring out the crowds, much more so than say a AL West showdown between the first-place Angels and the contending Rangers. But, for you handful of baseball purists out there, if you want to see a great pitching matchup, tonight’s game offers a legitimate possibility of one. Kevin Millwood, fifth in the AL in ERA, faces Jered Weaver, who is sixth. The difference between the two is .01096 earned runs per nine inning. But for easier-to-read purposes, Millwood is at 2.64; Weaver at 2.65. Both have eight wins. Both have more than 100 innings pitched. Both are having All-Star caliber seasons.

Which leads me to my next question: Will both be All-Stars? Will either?

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More About Last Night: Texas Rangers Address Issues, But Are They The Right Ones?

ARLINGTON - The Rangers need to figure out what they are. And fast. Like yesterday.

Because yesterday – in this case Monday – it sure seemed like they were casting about for answers and, in the end, running in circles in a 5-2 loss to the Los Angeles Angels that put them 2.5 games back in the AL West. For those counting, that’s seven games they’ve lost in the standings since June 12.

In the end, this is what the Rangers did Monday: They brought up a leadoff man to replace the cleanup hitter platoon, then hit the leadoff man (Julio Borbon) in the sixth spot. Early in the game, the Angels embarrassed the rookie by intentionally walking a batter (Nelson Cruz) who is hitting .179 for June to have crusty veteran Sean O’Sullivan (appearing in his third major league game) face and strike out Borbon with the bases loaded for his first major league at-bat. Late in the game, with a rally at stake, the Rangers pulled Borbon back for Hank Blalock, the very man who was benched for the rookie in the first place. Of course, Blalock didn’t fare better. He grounded out to end the rally.

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Ron Washington’s Big Test

On the most recent Rangers Podcast in Arlington, I suggested that Ron Washington might be at a very pivotal moment in his career as a manager, facing the job of keeping the Rangers on top without Josh Hamilton in the lineup.

Citing the work Joe Torre has done in keeping the Dodgers rolling without their slugger, I suggested that Washington had an opportunity to establish himself as a manager by doing the same thing.

So far, Washington has not distinguished himself in the face of his club’s adversity while Torre has.

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Pitching Profile – May Edition

The following exercise is something I am trying to keep on the side for my own personal use, but then I thought that there might be just enough stat-hungry baseball folks to go ahead and post it up here for you to digest (slowly…there is a lot).

It is basic splits for the 5 starters who have filled out the Rangers rotation for 2009. There have been 50 starts, and to date, Millwood, McCarthy, Harrison, Feldman, and Padilla have made 45 of them. Benson, Holland, and Hunter have made the last 5, but there is not enough data to make it worth running their monthly trends.

But, as we embark upon the month of June, here is a perfect time to show you how the 5 are performing, and perhaps this is something I will update and rerun each and every time we turn the calendar here in the baseball season.

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Did Alex Rodriguez Tip Pitches While With The Rangers? A Look At The Numbers

So, did he or didn’t he?

In Selena Roberts’ pulpy biography of Alex Rodriguez, which reads like a hardbound version of US magazine, the accusations come fly fast and furious. Stuff like his (lousy) restaurant tipping habits, his visits to strip clubs, his vanity and his insecurity. Pretty clear, he’s not a great guy.

As far as baseball goes, there are only two details from the book that I care about: The accusations he used steroids (which Rodriguez has acknowledged) and the accusations he conspired with other players in a quid-pro-quo pitch-tipping scheme. Rodriguez, the book alleges, would tip opposing batters, usually middle infielders, to what was about to be thrown once games were out of hand. He expected them to do the same for him. Call it slump insurance.

The first accusation makes him a cheater and it doesn’t matter whether it was in Texas (as he acknowledges) or throughout his career. But, based on information that continues to leak out, it wouldn’t make him that unusual; there appear to have been lots of guys out there who were willing to cheat to win.

The second, however, would make him something of a ringleader of gang of guys determined to cheat the integrity of competition, too.

Bad stuff.

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About Last Night: Hank Blalock Gives Rangers Something To Swagger About

ARLINGTON - The tell-tale signs were there. The carpet was a little soggier. The beer splatter reached a little higher. The music – a very appropriate selection of T.I. and Jay-Z rapping “Swagga Like Us” – was a bit louder.

Yep, somebody in the Rangers clubhouse had played late-inning hero on Wednesday night.

Welcome back, Hank Blalock.

It was Blalock’s laser beam double to right center off Brandon Morrow in the 11^th inning that scored Michael Young with the tying run and a sliding Josh Hamilton with the game-winner in a 6-5 victory over Seattle.

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About Last Night, er, Afternoon: By Pocketing Aces, Rangers Run Streak To Four With 7-2 Victory Over Seattle

D-tails: Boxscore (Rangers 7, Seattle 2); Standings;  The Depot live game blog; Post-Game Show comment thread

SEATTLE -John Danks. Felix Hernandez. Erik Bedard.

They are the kind of pitchers you might expect to find on an AL All-Star team or in a playoff rotation.

But in this particular instance, they are neither. They are simply the opponents’ starting pitcher in the last three Rangers wins of what is now a four-game winning streak with Tuesday’s 7-2 10-inning victory over Seattle. Those names alone make it not your average four-game winning streak.

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NHL Fans: Seeking Picks For Stanley Cup-Holders

Who will beat whom in the Finals in June? (Tie-breaker: How many games out will the Texas Rangers be on that date?)

In recent years, the Stanley Cup playoffs have reminded me of the NCAA Tournament: plenty of upsets early, but in the end we end up with one of the best teams skating around with the hardware. The last time that the champion wasn’t among the top three teams in its conference (not counting the lockout-shortened 1995 season)? The year before there were Dallas Stars, when Montreal won in 1992-93 after finishing fourth in the East.

After the jump, details on how I determine my favorites, which has almost nothing to do with who’s on the ice.

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Actuary Look At The Stars’ Season (Part II)

Much of the following will come as no shock. But it’s better to have a more specific idea why the Stars groped through the season. And, no, there’s nothing here related to man-games. Stars fans know what it meant to miss Brenden Morrow, Brad Richards, Sergei Zubov and friends. Let’s stick to the hard numbers of what happened on ice:

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Actuary Look At The Stars’ Season (Part I) While Players Can Tee It Up Before The Masters Is Over

This morning, we’ll review some numbers. After the full league is done Sunday, it’ll be time to compare the Stars to the rest of the league, like where James Neal officially finishes in rookie goals. Feel free to mention others that you find significant.

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