The Mets this season bypassed the September swoons that ruined their 2007 and 2008 seasons; they fell apart in mid-summer. Their list of wounded is well chronicled, negating the signing of Francisco Rodriguez, and general manager Omar Minaya emerged with the support of owner Fred Wilpon.

But Minaya has had a rough couple of years since he and his multi-cultural team made the cover of SI in 2007. The early ’08 firing of manager Willie Randolph turned into an awkward, late-night affair on the West Coast. Last season, the Mets fired V.P. Tony Bernazard following an ugly incident in the minor leagues that was first reported by New York Daily News beat writer Adam Rubin. During the news conference to announce Bernazard’s ouster, Minaya said Rubin had lobbied him for a position in player development, which left the impression that Rubin’s report was connected to his desire to join the Mets. (A report from that news conference.) Minaya later apologized to Rubin.

Going into the ’09 season, Minaya elected to re-sign 28-year-old lefty starter Oliver Perez and apparently pass up 35-year-old righty Derek Lowe. The erratic Perez managed only 14 starts and three wins while Lowe went 15-10 in Atlanta to help the Braves stay in wild-card contention well into September. Pedro Martinez told Fox Sports that Minaya offered him a 2009 contract loaded with incentives. Maybe it was best for the Mets not to re-sign him for what he wanted over a full season, but that won’t matter much when he starts Game 2 of the World Series at Yankee Stadium for the Phillies.

All of this in a season during which the Yankees ended their one-year post-season “slump.” Short of getting swept by the Phillies, their arrow appears to be pointed up for the first time in six years.

It would appear the Mets must at least drastically improve in 2010 for Minaya to remain G.M. And if that doesn’t happen … and if the Rangers play anywhere close to what they did in 2009 … and depending on what happens with the Rangers’ ownership situation, would the Mets look at New Yorker Jon Daniels as a potential replacement for Minaya in 2011?

Could be Daniels has been away from New York long enough that there’s no pull to “go home.” Could be he’s settled here and wants to play out his role with the Rangers as long as he can. But the Mets have resources that the Rangers probably never will have . Conversely, the Mets’ resources can’t match the team up in the Bronx.

You tell me if this scenario makes any sense.

UPDATE: Click here for Joey Matschulat’s look at the state of umpiring in general this morning at BBTiA.

It’s been a rough October for MLB umpires, who have struggled to get some of the most obvious calls correct. Among a litany of his peers, Phil Cuzzi came under scrutiny in the ALDS series between the Twins and the Yankees when he ruled a Joe Mauer liner foul even though the ball landed well inside the chalk. The Twins went on to lose the game 4-3 in 11 innings and the series in three games.

But the general outrage may have culminated with Tim McClelland’s bizarre call Tuesday night — which you can watch here — that resulted in Robinson Cano being called safe at third base despite standing with his foot clearly off the bag as Angels catcher Mike Napoli tagged him with the ball. Though the call didn’t affect the outcome of the Yankees’ 10-1 blowout win, the miss was so evident that many fans and critics have spoken out for the expansion of instant replay in baseball.

Much maligned commissioner Bud Selig is uninterested in addressing the issue, seemingly not wanting to leave a legacy, fair or not, as the guy who let the Steroid Era happen and the guy who slowed the game down. The argument against says that a game based so heavily on pace and timing would be hurt by frequent interruptions to check fair or foul, out or safe, etc. And where do you draw the line? Foul tips? Hit batsmen?

But missed calls like we’ve seen so far can’t continue, especially not at this point in the year. After playing through a grueling 162 game schedule — 163 if you count their one game playoff with Detroit– the Twins were done in just three games, and at least one of them was affected by a shoddy call. And the fact that even experienced umpires are botching plays has only emboldened those who want to bring MLB into a more technological state of existence. So can baseball really afford to wait for a major umpiring meltdown before they implement some kind of change?

Rangers Outright Two

Texas outrighted reliever Jason Grilli and catcher Kevin Richardson to the minors Wednesday after the pair cleared waivers. Both have the option to decline the assignment and opt for free agency, which Grilli is expected to do. It may not guarantee that Grilli is done in Texas, but it’s not exactly a ringing endorsement of the front office’s confidence in him moving forward.

This move is all the more reason the Rangers have got to find answers internally for the bullpen. With Grilli possibly out the door, Eddie Guardado looking towards retirement, and Joaquin Benoit unlikely to re-sign with the club, Texas is running out of veterans to eat up the middle innings. On the bright side, Grilli and Darren O’Day were both waiver wire additions who played major roles in the pen last year, so there’s hope that the Rangers can find some quality arms on the cheap this winter.

Coming to America

The Rangers have been courting Japanese star Yusei Kikuchi, an 18-year-old lefty who’s touched the mid-90s on radar guns already.  The front office even sent Derek Holland to ease any concerns Kikuchi had about playing in the States. So what’s the problem? It’s not that the Rangers are just competing against other MLB teams for Kikuchi’s service, they’re competing against his home country as well. Kikuchi is trying to decide if he should play a few seasons the better part of a decade in Japan’s Nippon Profession Baseball league or skip it entirely and sign with a major league club. Jamey Newberg is now reporting that Kikuchi’s going to have his mind made up by Sunday:

Yakyubaka.com, a States-based website covering Japanese baseball, relying on a story in Sanspo.com that ran about five hours ago, reports that Hanamaki Higashi High School has announced that 18-year-old lefthander Yusei Kikuchi (a formidable candidate for “Most Likely to Succeed” in this year’s senior class) will hold a press conference on Sunday to “announce his decision.”

So, even if Kikuchi decides to go straight to MLB, the Rangers will be fighting with a number of teams for the right to sign him. Unlike Daisuke Matsuzaka, who Texas made a push for in 2006, Kikuchi doesn’t appear to be ready to pitch at the highest level anytime soon, so he won’t be as pricey. And though the Rangers’ dabbles in Asia haven’t yielded stellar results yet (Kaz Fukumori, anyone?), the fact that they’re trying to become a presence is at least a good sign. Texas has become much more active in Latin American scouting under Jon Daniels, and it’s already paying dividends with names like Martin Perez shooting through the farm system.

Jaramillo took a lot of heat last season after the Rangers failed to score 800 runs for the first time since 1995 and ranked 24th in MLB in on-base percentage while leading the American League in strikeouts. But David Brown at Baseball Time in Arlington broke down Rudy’s tenure in Texas last week, which yielded some interesting results.

The Rangers, meanwhile, don’t seem to be very far along in the process of finding a replacement for Jaramillo.

Broxton was only the second reliever to play a major role Monday, as just hours before Yankee closer Mariano Rivera worked out of a tight spot in the bottom of the 10th of their game with Los Angeles to keep it going. After the Angels put runners on the corners with no outs, Rivera forced three straight ground outs to push the game into a second extra frame, and though the Angels ended up winning in 11 innings, Rivera’s performance is a testament to the value of having a dominant pitcher in the back of a bullpen.

To this point, the ’09 playoffs haven’t been kind to closers. Maligned Angel’s closer Brian Fuentes blew a save in the 11th inning Saturday after allowing a homer to Alex Rodriguez. One day earlier, former Ranger Chan Ho Park earned an 8th inning blown save after he gave up two runs to the Dodgers. In the postseason’s first round, Huston Street allowed a run in the 9th inning of a tied game three against the Phillies. One night later, he came into the 9th inning of game four with a 4-2 lead, and left two outs later with a 5-4 deficit. Boston’s Jonathan Pabelbon, Minnesota’s Joe Nathan, and St. Louis’ Ryan Franklin all blew two-run, 9th inning leads in their respective divisional series, leading their teams to early ousters. Through 62-9th inning outs, the equivalent of 21 innings, 15 runs scored in the ALDS and NLDS, and there have been nearly as many blown saves (9) as saves (10).

Which brings us to the Rangers. Although they didn’t quite qualify for the postseason this year, it’s hard to imagine that they wouldn’t have been contributing to the bullpen debacle had they made it in. The Rangers closer situation was an interesting one in 2009. It started about as well as anyone could have hoped — with 17.2 scoreless innings and 11 saves from Frank Francisco — but the remainder of the season was marked with injury, uncertainty, a lot of collar loosening, and plenty of brow wiping. It got so bad by season’s end that some fans were calling for rookie Neftali Feliz or soft-tossing sidearmer Darren O’Day to take over the final frame. But with Feliz likely moving back into the rotation next year, O’Day’s unproven track record, and the relative unpredictability of relievers from year to year, should the Rangers be looking to stabilize the back of their pen?

Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson were Texas’ two closers in 2009 and, for the most part, they did a decent job. The pair combined for 39 saves, 23 holds, and eight blown saves while rotating back and forth between the closer and set-up roles. In all likelihood, they’ll be dueling it out for the same spots next year, barring some major acquisition or philosophical change.  So let’s break down the the candidates…

Frank Francisco

2009 Season

Francisco started the year on fire, rattling off 17.2 scoreless innings and converting his first 11 save opportunities before allowing an Adam Kennedy home run on May 31. He earned his 12th consecutive save on June 3 before making his second trip to the DL a week later. That’s when the wheels came off. From June 25 on, Francisco posted a 6.51 ERA and blew four saves while converting only 13. He finished the year with a 3.83 ERA and showed an unnerving tendency to implode.

The Good

Francisco has maintained excellent strikeout rates (9.95 K/9 for his career, 11.18 since 2008) and has steadily improved his control, walking a career-low 15 batters in 2009. He’s got a strong, mid-90s fastball to go with a hard curve and a good splitter, and he’s shown the confidence to throw any pitch in any count. He’s aggressive with hitters and seems to have the ability to forget about bad outings, a quality not all pitchers possess.

The Bad

Francisco is an extreme fly ball pitcher who plays in a park known to be a home run haven. For his career, his ground ball/fly ball ratio is 0.49, well below league average, and this year it reached 0.43, which was the lowest it’s been since his rookie season. Not surprisingly, this has caused a high HR/9 ratio for a closer of near 1.0, and it’s also led to a lot of extra base hits. In 2009 and 2008, Francisco allowed 40 percent and 43 percent of his total hits to go for extra bases, while the league average is 34 percent. His lack of grounders has also contributed to his forcing only one double play in 72 opportunities over the last two years. He’s not great at getting ahead of hitters and he seemed to have trouble stopping the bleeding when he struggled — in his four blown saves, Francisco allowed 15 runs in 2.2 innings.

C.J. Wilson

2009 Season

Coming off an awful 2008 campaign in which he allowed 35 runs in 46.1 innings, C.J. Wilson had a career year in ’09, setting personal bests in appearances, innings, ERA, strikeouts, and holds. Still, Wilson had his problems. Control issues led to a high walk rate and a 1.33 WHIP, which isn’t good for a reliever, and he was consistently inconsistent throughout the season.

The Good

Wilson’s got electric stuff. His fastball usually sits in the low- to mid-90s with plenty of life, though at times he cranked it up to 97 last year. His slider can disappear when he’s throwing it well, and he throws a solid changeup as well. Unlike Francisco, Wilson gets plenty of ground balls, leading to a low homer rate. He had a career high 10.26 K/9 ratio in 2009, and he dominated left-handed hitters to the tune of .206/.310/.237.

The Bad

Despite his arm, Wilson has a tendency to be too careful and not trust his stuff. Like Francisco, he struggled to get ahead in the count, and he especially struggled when facing the first batter of an outing. His walk totals, down slightly from the last two years, is still too high and put him in a lot of dangerous situations. Command is an issue, as it varies greatly from game to game, and righties can hit him fairly well. There have been questions about his maturity and whether he has the mental make up to be an effective closer.

Neftali Feliz

2009 Season

Feliz made his Major League debut in ’09, and did it in style — he struck out the first four batters he faced. Though he struggled a bit in September, he finished the season having allowed six runs in 31 innings while striking out 39. Truthfully, he’s not a closer candidate for the Rangers, at least not going into next year. But there some who think he doesn’t possess the secondary stuff to succeed as a starter, and that his ultimate role in the majors will be in the back of a bullpen.

The Good

The stuff. Feliz can hit 100 on a radar gun and make it look like a game of catch. And that’s not the best part. His fastball moves… a lot. His slurve and splitter were a pleasant surprises and he showed a fearlessness and cool that well exceed his young age. Opponents hit .124 off him with a .210 slugging percentage, and he held righties to an OPS of .274. Ridiculous.

The Bad

He’s young. He’ll turn 22 near the beginning of next season, and management didn’t seem to like the idea of pitching him more than a few times a week. His velocity was inconsistent, causing curiosity as to whether he was tiring out. Also, the Rangers seem intent on making him a starter, which is the right thing to do. With his stuff, Feliz could easily develop into a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, and getting 200 innings of Feliz annually would be much better than 60.

Outlook

There’s no doubt that the bullpen needs to be upgraded in the offseason, even if most of the changes happen internally. The middle innings became a major weak spot for the Rangers last year as Jason Jennings and Eddie Guardado showed an increasing inability to get outs and Neftali Feliz was kept on a short leash. Darren O’Day was spectacular in 2009, but it’s hard to know how he’ll perform next season. Relievers by nature are unpredictable from year to year, and pitchers with a gimmick, like O’Day’s sidearm delivery, seem especially prone to being figured out.

But the back of the bullpen shouldn’t be a major concern. Injuries really seemed to hamper what started as an excellent season for Francisco, but if he can get healthy he should be able to play out 2010 as the closer. Wilson’s inconsistency can be maddening at times, but three of his four blown saves came in the 8th inning or earlier, meaning he was 14 for 15 in 9th inning save chances. So long as he doesn’t have another year of regression like 2008, his stuff should play well in the 8th or 9th inning.

And with the price of big name closers commonly reaching eight digits a season, the Rangers simply can’t afford to chase after a Jose Valverde type this winter. Besides, the Mets, Angels, and Indians spent big money last offseason on Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes, and Kerry Wood respectively in hopes that they would solve their late-inning issues, but they’ve turned out to be busts so far.

In the final analysis, 10 pitchers started games for the Rangers this season. Kevin Millwood (31), Scott Feldman (31), Derek Holland (21), Tommy Hunter (19), Vicente Padilla (18), Brandon McCarthy (17), Matt Harrison (11), Dustin Nippert (10), Kris Benson (2), and Doug Mathis (2). This study will focus on the eight pitchers who have made at least 10 starts.

There is plenty of good news to report as they worked a significantly higher amount of innings while doing a great job at dropping the rotation’s ERA.

Both Kevin Millwood and Scott Feldman made over 30 starts with 18 Quality Starts each. That number may not blow your socks off, but those two seasons can rival pretty much any season we have seen around here by a starting pitcher in an awfully long time.

There were other signs of optimism as well, as the first year of the Nolan Ryan/Mike Maddux program seems like a perfect diving board to 2010.

Just so we are all up to speed with the different stats, IPS is Innings Per Start and PPS is Pitches Per Start. Everything else will be metrics that I am sure you are familiar with.

Before you start, we need to establish league averages for the stats so you understand what consitutes “league average”. So, here you go – These are the final American League Season Averages for the 2009 AL Season:

ERA – AL Average is 4.45
AVG – AL Average is .266
OBP – AL Average is .334
SLG – AL Average is .425
K/9 – AL Average is 6.86
BB/9 – AL Average is 3.39
HR/9 – AL Average is 1.11
WHIP – AL Average is 1.40

Below we will take apart each player and can examine how he fits against the league average:

Kevin Millwood Splits

Table Tutorial

Kevin Millwood had a very solid season by his standards, but most of his best work was done before July 1 and after September 1. He was 12 out of 16 for quality starts to start the year, and then went 6-15 the rest of the way in that all-important department. With nearly 200 innings, it is fair to ask if he pitched himself out as the season went on, and perhaps wasn’t in condition to remain at the pace he set in May and June.

But, his final numbers were mostly all better than league average. His ERA was amazing by Rangers’ standards and although he was not the most impressive pitcher on the staff down the stretch, he surely provided a bit of that anchor for the rest of the rotation for much of the year.

You could do better than Kevin Millwood, but you could also do much worse.

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Scott Feldman Splits

Table Tutorial

Feldman’s numbers are only as a Starter

The amazing success story of 2009, Scott Feldman almost matched Kevin Millwood in ERA before he hit the wall in September. His batting metrics of .245/.314/.359 blew away the league averages. He doesn’t allow base-runners, so he doesn’t get in trouble.

He also raised his often-discussed K Rate to a reasonable 5.26 per 9, so there is hope that he doesn’t apply to the Bill James anomoly rules.

17 wins were phenomenal, trailing only CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, and Felix Hernandez. Those 3 each achieved 19, but they also had 3 more starts to get there. He appears to understand the fine art of pitching, which we have seen is not always something that can be learned.

Unlike last April, he is a lock for the rotation in 2010.

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Vicente Padilla Splits

Table Tutorial

Certainly capable of knocking your socks off in a start (NLCS Game 2), Padilla was the ultimate “Dow-Joneser” as Dick Vitale would love to say. Padilla allowed too many hits, too many runners, and his ERA and K Rate were lower than they have been.

He was the opposite of what they needed in a veteran, highly-compensated pitcher: he was undependable. As long as you never counted on anything from Padilla, he was fine. But the second you really needed him to pull through in a tough spot, he seemed to let you down. At that pay rate, and at that performance level, he was not worth the trouble.

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Derek Holland As A Starter

Table Tutorial

It is early in the Derek Holland story. He looked the part a few times this year, but for the most part, at 4 for 21 with quality starts, it was not good enough to cement his spot. He is a development project, and the Rangers will continue to hand him the ball every 5 days, but 20 more starts from now, this will not do. His ERA kept rising, his metrics were all poor (aside from K/Rate) and his worst numbers were Slugging Pct and HR Rate. Very bad combination.

Basically, when hitters make contact against Derek Holland, it generally either hits seats or off the wall it would seem. 2009 may go into the Holland book as a full learning experience, so let’s hope that we see more of what we saw that dynamite night of the trade deadline.

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Tommy Hunter Splits

Table Tutorial

Tommy makes it difficult to give Derek Holland a complete pass. Hunter is also extremely young. Hunter should have also been experiencing his growing pains, but instead he was outstanding until September. From July to August, he worked over 60 innings in 10 starts and opposing hitters barely hit over .200 against him. He actually strikes out fewer than Feldman, but like Feldman, he doesn’t allow hitters to put up the league average.

Hunter has a spot waiting for him in April, and like Feldman, I will feel pretty strong about the Tommy Hunter spot.

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Brandon McCarthy Splits

Table Tutorial

Hmmm. This is interesting. It is easy to consider McCarthy a disappointment, and because he cannot stay healthy that is not incorrect. But, when he did pitch this year (17 starts) he does have a story to tell. In September, he took the ball 6 times and opponents hit just .234/.295/.344 against him. That is a solid line. He strikes out over 6 per 9, which is 2nd only to Holland (3rd if you include Nippert). He appears to be improving, but I think patience is running out on the health issues. 2010 is likely his last year of leash on that front.

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Dustin Nippert Splits

Table Tutorial

Not sure what to make of Nippert. He went back and forth so often and these are just his numbers as a starter. He would seem to lack the ability to go deep in games, and his numbers are all right around league average except for his K/Rate. I agree with those who suggest he is an ideal swing man on a staff.

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Matt Harrison Splits

Table Tutorial

Like McCarthy, the question is whether can he be depended upon. But, unlike McCarthy, his upside seems rather pedestrian based on his performance. In fact, that is kind. ERA over 6, under 5 K’s per 9, and the league slugs .500 against him. At this point, he is a guy.

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Starting Rotation Totals

Table Tutorial

In the end, 68 QS out of 162 is not nearly the number we projected early. Only 2 AL teams (Oak, Balt) had fewer quality starts than the Rangers (CHI led with 86). But, with 949.2 innings, the Rangers pitched more innings than the rotations of the Yankees, Twins, A’s, Royals, Indians, and Orioles. This may not be the most impressive list, but there were years where there was no list at all. The Rangers traditionally get very few innings from their rotation in the new park era, and to get 80 more than last year supports the “1-more-out” directives.

They ranked 12th in strikeouts, with 598 strikeouts as starters, only the Orioles and Indians had fewer strikeouts. Teams like Boston and New York had almost 200 more strikeouts, so you can easily see how that places less stress on your defense and keeps runners from being moved along with contact.

Improvements were made, and because of the age of most of the rotation and the troops behind this group, the odds are reasonable that this franchise-long trend is turning in the right direction. Plenty of room for improvement, but as you learned while watching this team, pitching was not near the reason for failure that we have become accustomed to around here.

Perhaps 2010 will be even better.

Thoughts?

But no matter how long Los Angeles lasts, Lackey’s career in L.A. seems to be dwindling down to its final weeks. His contract expires at season’s end, and with the Angels facing the impending free agency of Chone Figgins, Bobby Abreu, and Vlad Guerrero as well, there may not be room to bring back the former 19-game winner.

According to SI’s Jon Heyman, Lackey rejected the Angels’ offer of 3 years and roughly $40 million prior to the start of the season, and when Lackey started having elbow problems, talks broke off entirely. L.A. then acquired lefty Scott Kazmir after the trade deadline, a move that not only seems to soften the blow of losing Lackey, but also provides another multi-million dollar hit to the payroll that further handcuffs the team financially. Supposedly, Lackey wants “A.J. Burnett money,” referring to the 5 year, $82.5 million deal that Burnett got from the Yankees last winter. And when you consider that Lackey’s number compare favorably almost across the board to Burnett’s, he can probably get it.

Enter the Texas Rangers.

Lackey, who was born and raised in Abilene, is a proud Texan and the closest thing to an ace that will hit the free agent market this offseason. The Rangers play in Texas and are in desperate need of said ace. So what’s not to like? Well, the price tag, for one. And there’s the question of whether Lackey’s a bona fide ace, or just a top-of-the-rotation kind of pitcher. And then there’s his age. And his health. And whether or not he’d wither in the Texas heat like so many before him.

The Rangers would be remiss if they didn’t at least explore all avenues in regards to Lackey. But even if the Rangers can afford to pay him the $16.5 million-per-year he’s hoping to emulate from Burnett, and even if they’re willing to commit their entire offseason to one player, one big question still looms.

Should they?

Lackey holds a relative similarity to one player already in a Rangers uniform — Kevin Millwood — who was the last pitcher the Rangers shelled out big money for and was the ace of the Texas rotation in 2009. Though, statistically, there are other pitchers around the league who bear a closer resemblance to Lackey, there isn’t one that Ranger fans know better nor one that serves as a better benchmark in seeing just how much Lackey could improve the team. And the pair are alike right down to their five-pitch repertoires: fastball, cutter, curveball, slider, and changeup.

But it’s not as black and white as it looks. Thanks to the technology of pitch f/x, we can break down the differences between Lackey’s stuff and Millwood’s stuff. And though FanGraph’s data only goes back to 2007 — and the ’07 data is incomplete at that — it still provides plenty of information.

Lackey’s fastball has a bit more zip than Millwood’s, averaging 1.3 mph faster in 2009. Both pitches have nearly identical tailing action, but Lackey consistently gets more sink on his fastball, which can lead to more ground balls.

There’s also a noticeable discrepancy in the breaking stuff, where Millwood throws the more traditional hard slider and slow curveball. In ’09, Millwood’s slider averaged 84.9 mph, while his curve dialed down to 73.6 mph. Lackey, on the other hand, essentially throws two different curveballs. He has a hard, tight curve that sits in the upper-70s — 79.3 mph in 2009 — and a slightly faster pitch that pitch f/x classifies as a slider, though it’d probably be more accurate to call it a slurve. Lackey’s slurve averaged 81.7 mph in 2009, only 2.4 mph faster than his curve which is, obviously, much closer than the 11.3 mph gap between Millwood’s slider and curve. Lackey’s slurve doesn’t drop as much as his curve, but drops much more than Millwood’s hard slider, making it kind of a tweener pitch that can be tough to classify. Comparatively, Lackey’s curveball gets a touch more horizontal movement than Millwood’s even though it comes in so much faster, and Lackey’s slurve breaks significantly more both vertically and horizonally than Millwood’s slider.

The biggest difference, however, is in how they use their pitches. Millwood throws a lot of fastballs and relies fairly evenly on the remainder of his repertoire the rest of the way. In 2009, Millwood threw his 4-seamer and 2-seamer 57.0 percent of the time and, including the cutter, threw a total of 64.9 percent fastballs. The remainder of his pitches were 16.9 percent sliders, 9.6 percent curveballs, and 8.7 percent changeups. In 2008, one of the worst seasons in his career, Millwood threw 75.3 percent fastballs.

Lackey, on the other hand, relies heavily on a three-pitch mix. He fired off 55.8 percent 4-seamers and 2-seamers in 2009, and sparse use of his cutter raised his total fastball percentage to 58.5 percent. His out pitch is the curveball, which he threw 26.1 percent of the time last year, and the slurve composed 11.7 percent of his selection. Unlike Millwood, Lackey rarely uses his cutter or change.

Since Millwood became a Ranger in 2006, Lackey has consistently posted better ERAs, seemingly the direct result of allowing fewer hits and walks and getting more strikeouts. So how do we explain the difference in the pair’s production? It goes back to the stuff.

While both Lackey and Millwood have thrown essentially the same percentage of strikes over the last three years, Lackey makes his count. Of his strikes, Lackey has averaged about 30 percent looking, 14 percent swinging, and 25 percent on foul balls — the remaining 31 percent were balls in play — while opposing hitters have only made contact on 80 percent of their swings. Millwood, on the other hand, gets only 27 percent looking and 12 percent swinging, and his 30 percent foul ball rate helped lead to a contact percentage of 85. In other words, Lackey has a much easier time missing bats with his sinking fastball, tight curve, and swooping slurve, which makes him less susceptible to long, draining at-bats and cheap base hits. He also helps himself by throwing first-pitch strikes at a clip of 65 percent and maintaining a very low walk rate.

So, now that we’ve determined what should have already been obvious — that John Lackey would be the best pitcher on the team should the Rangers sign him — now comes the tricky part. Even if the Rangers could find a way to round up enough cash to woo Lackey to Arlington, could they possibly justify it? In truth, saying Lackey would be the best pitcher on the roster wouldn’t necessarily qualify him as an “ace,” and though he had a great run from 2005 to 2007, his numbers aren’t quite up to par with names like Halladay, Santana, or Lincecum. Lackey’s last two seasons in particular are concerning, as he’s missed 15 starts with injuries and posted a cumulative 3.79 ERA. His strikeout ratio has also dropped in each of the last four seasons, going from 8.57 K/9 in 2005 to 7.10 in 2009.

Then there’s the question of whether or not he could pitch in Arlington. It’s no secret that, for his career, Lackey’s struggled in Texas, and the fact that he’s posted a 6.11 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 84 innings at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington might make some queasy about the idea of committing major money to him. But Texas beat him up in L.A. as well, with Lackey owning a 5.64 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 89.1 career innings when facing the Rangers at Angels Stadium. For whatever reason, the Rangers presented a matchup problem for Lackey regardless of where he pitched. So, while there could be an expected jump in Lackey’s ERA should he end up making half his starts in Rangers Ballpark next year, it shouldn’t be as scary as his numbers here would indicate.

Still, it all comes down to the money. Signing Lackey would almost certainly mean no Marlon Byrd, no Ben Sheets, and probably a few more no’s down the road. Lackey’s touted as a big game pitcher with plenty of experience in October, but if the Rangers don’t make the playoffs it won’t do them much good, and Lackey alone wouldn’t guarantee a postseason berth. Yet with Kevin Millwood’s contract expiring after the 2010 season and Arlington’s reputation as a hitter’s haven, it’ll be awfully tough to find a better match any time soon.

John Lackey is exactly the type hard-nosed, tough-minded pitcher Texas seems to be lacking. All the Rangers need is an owner that can make it happen.

Jaramillo has been the Rangers hitting instructor since the 1995 season, and from 1996 through 2004, the Rangers ranked in the top five in batting average, runs scored, slugging percentage, home runs, and hits. Texas is also only a year removed from leading the majors with 901 runs scored.

But 2009 was a different story, as the Rangers failed to crack 800 runs for the first time since ’95, Jaramillo’s first year on the job. Texas also led the A.L. in strikeouts (1253) and ranked 12th out of 14 teams in walks (472), seeing a 20.6% drop in free passes from last year. The Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros have already been listed as potential suitors for Jaramillo.

The reason for all the hype around Mauer is quite simple: good catchers are hard to come by, and a truly great catcher, like Mauer, can be once in a generation. Which helps to explain why only one catcher in the last 32 years — the Rangers’ own Ivan Rodriguez in 1999 — has earned an MVP award in either league (though that could  change in a month if Mauer is named A.L. MVP, as expected). It’s also why rookie catcher Matt Wieters, who the normally conservative PECOTA system pegged for a .949 OPS this year, received a standing ovation as he approached the plate for his first major league at-bat back in May.

There just aren’t many guys that can withstand six month’s worth of beatings behind the plate and still crank out a hit or two per game. So when Texas traded Gerald Laird, a solid starting catcher with two controllable years left, because they seemingly had too much catching last December, quite a few teams looked on in envy. The parting was mutual: Laird wanted a chance to be “the man” behind the plate, and the Rangers were ready to show off a deep farm system that boasted prospects like Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Taylor Teagarden, and Max Ramirez, as well as Tomas Telis, Manny Pina, and Leonel De Los Santos at the lower levels of the minors. But less than a year later, things aren’t so rosy. After a season in which none of their young catchers established themselves at the big league level, the Rangers have been left to wonder if their future backstop is even on the current roster.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Past

Jarrod Saltalamacchia entered the season as Laird’s heir apparent because, despite being younger than both Teagarden and Ramirez, Saltalamacchia had more than five times as many major league at-bats as the other two combined. One of the key components of the Mark Teixeira trade in 2007, Saltalamacchia was touted as a switch hitter with rare power for a catcher. In 1405 career minor league at-bats, Salty showed solid power (48 homers), a good eye (197 walks), and a slightly concerning strikeout rate (324 Ks). Though he didn’t appear to be a threat for any batting titles and his defense was still a work in progress, his 6’4″, 235 pound frame suggested that he could continue to add power to his stroke and draw 50-70 walks a year.

Present

While parts of that scouting report were visible in the 2009 version of Salty, he certainly wasn’t the player the Rangers expected this season. At the plate, he seemed to seriously regress from 2008. Some pointed to a high strikeout rate (97 Ks in 283 ABs) as a major source of his problems, but oddly, Saltalamacchia actually improved his K rate, striking out once every 2.92 at-bats versus once every 2.67 at-bats in ’08. The most obvious factors in Saltalamacchia’s offensive regression were a major drop in walks and a plummeting BAbip. Despite 85 more at-bats in 2009, Salty actually drew nine fewer walks than he did last year, failing to fluff his fledgling batting average like he did in 2008.

But the biggest culprit could be a short run of luck, as his BAbip (batting average on balls in play) dropped 65 points from last season. Batting average on balls in play is, quite simply, a player’s batting average on any ball put in play except home runs, since the defense can’t track down a ball that leaves the park. Mostly, it’s a stat that’s used to gauge if a player is getting lucky by having a lot of bloopers and dribblers fall in for base hits.

An average BAbip is about .290. In 2008, Saltalamacchia’s BAbip was .385. Not only is that high, it’s considered unsustainable, so a drop was expected and, frankly, statistically probable. This year, Salty had a BAbip of .320, which is still above average but much closer to the mean. Consequently, he saw a 20 point drop in his batting average which, combined with a lack of walks, led to a 62 point drop in on-base percentage. Some players get by with consistently high BAbip’s as a result of hitting the ball on the screws nearly every time. The aforementioned Mauer, for example, had a BAbip of .373 this season and a .344 mark for his career. But those players are the exception, not the rule that Saltalamacchia appears to be a part of.

On the bright side, Saltalamacchia took tremendous strides defensively, improving his caught stealing percentage from 18.4 percent in 2008 to 23.8 percent in 2009. That number is still below the MLB average of around 27 percent, but it’s much closer. He also reduced his errors from nine a year ago to seven this season, as well as passed balls from six to two despite logging 250 more innings behind the plate. Most importantly, his CERA (catcher’s ERA) dropped from 5.14 in ’08 to 4.08 in ’09. It’s important to note that at least a part of that decrease was due to improved defense by the Rangers, but it was obvious that he had a much better handle the pitching staff than last year.

Future

Saltalamacchia is still only 24-years-old and he showed flashes of his power potential with nine homers in 2009. He also slightly improved his strikeout ratio and took significant strides defensively, although that’s not saying much considering where he was a year ago. But, as it doesn’t appear that he’ll ever make enough contact to be a .300 hitter, Saltalamacchia’s going to have to continue to grow into his power and absolutely must increase his walk totals and cut down on the Ks. The defense, though better, was still below average in many respects. He’s a work in progress, but he’s still got plenty of tools to work with.

Taylor Teagarden

Past

When the Rangers snagged Taylor Teagarden in the 3rd round of the 2005 amateur draft, it looked like they had gotten a steal. Teagarden was widely regarded as a 1st or 2nd round talent coming out of the University of Texas, and he backed it up by mashing Northwest League pitching to the tune of .281/.426/.635 in 96 at-bats in his pro debut. After missing almost all of the 2006 season following Tommy John surgery, Teagarden continued his impressive tear through the minors by smoking the Cal League (.315/.448/.606) for 81 games, and keeping it going for double-A Frisco (.294/.357/.529) for another 29 contests. Teagarden seemed to have all of the best and worst qualities of Saltalamacchia, multiplied. He struck out 249 times in just 756 minor league at-bats, but countered that with plenty of power (43 homers) and an impeccable eye (143 walks).

Present

The problem for Teagarden was that he brought all the bad and forgot the good. In 2009, Teagarden  struck out once every 2.605 at-bats, which was just a tick worse than Chris Davis. I’ll let that sink in for a minute…

He showed decent power, but nothing particularly noteworthy, as he homered six times in 198 at-bats. He also failed to show the discipline that earned him so many walks in the minors. Teagarden had one of the lowest contact percentages in baseball, making contact with only 62 percent of the pitches he swung at last year. By contrast, Saltalamacchia had a contact percentage of 71 percent, and Michael Young was at 80 percent.

Defensively, Teagarden was much more successful than Salty at throwing out runners, owning an excellent caught stealing rate of 38.3 percent, well above league average. He did, however, have have three more passed balls and only one fewer error than Saltalamacchia in over 200 fewer innings. His CERA of 4.56 was also about half a run higher.

Future

Teagarden got the short end of the stick in many regards this year. His playing time was sparse and inconsistent, and he was assigned the unenviable task of taking on a tired, overachieving rotation when Saltalamacchia went down for the season. When he was drafted, many thought Teagarden was ML-ready defensively. Although his defense may have been better than Saltalamacchia’s in 2009, the difference was fairly negligible. And while Teagarden was never expected to be a good offensive catcher, hitting .217 and striking out 40 percent of the time obviously isn’t going to cut it. At this point, Teagarden could still turn into a solid defensive catcher with a little pop, but his offensive upside appears to be significantly limited.

Ivan Rodriguez

Past

Pudge’s past is full of goodies: 14 All-Star appearances, 13 Gold Gloves, seven Silver Sluggers, a World Series title, and an already mentioned A.L. MVP award. His more recent past, however, doesn’t look so nice. Pudge’s offensive skills have been, understandably, on the decline since mid-decade. Prior to this season, Pudge had four straight years of a sub-.800 OPS, and his .276 average last year was his lowest since 1993.

Present

The fact that Pudge laid claim to the record for most games caught in baseball history this year is a testament to his durability and toughness, but also to just what a beating his body has taken for nearly two decades. At the plate, 2009 was the worst year for Rodriguez since his second big league campaign back in 1992, posting a season .664 OPS. He was quick to rekindle old chemistry when Houston traded him to Texas, going 10 for his first 29 with 5 doubles and a homer to start his Ranger revival. But Rodriguez was dreadful the rest of the way, hitting .203 with a .515 OPS over the final month and not even playing in any of the Rangers’ last four games.

Pudge’s offensive woes were the result of a line drive percentage of 16 and a strikeout percentage of 20.5, both easily career worsts. Essentially, that means Rodriguez wasn’t putting the ball in play as much as in years past, and when he was, he was making weak contact more often. Unless there was  some major unknown injury he was battling through, both of those stats appear to be the result of age and wear, things that certainly won’t get better with time.

He’s still a threat behind the plate, throwing out 6 of 13 would-be base stealers while with the Rangers, and an excellent 35 percent overall for the season. Obviously, he’s not the defensive catcher he was ten or fifteen years ago, but even at 37, runners take heed to whose in the chest protector. His CERA was the highest of all regular Rangers catchers at 4.88, but a portion of that could be attributed to unfamiliarity and pitcher fatigue.

Future

After an ugly late-season run with the Yankees in 2008, Pudge needed an outstanding showing at the World Baseball Classic last spring just to earn a tryout with the Astros. The result was another significant step back in his production in ’09. From preliminary reports, it seems as though both sides remain interested in a possible reunion next year, presumably because Rodriguez lacks options and the Rangers remain uncertain in their catching situation. But the truth is the Rangers should be able to get out of Teagarden and Saltalamacchia what they could get out of Pudge, or at least they better hope so. And with a number of prospects becoming eligible for the Rule V draft, the Rangers might need the space on the 40-man roster.

Max Ramirez

AP Photo

Past

He’s probably one of the easiest names of the ’07 deadline haul to forget amidst guys like Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, and David Murphy. But ever since Max Ramirez first picked up a bat, all he’s done is hit. Starting with two years in rookie ball as a 19- and 20-year-old, Ramirez hit .314 with 16 homers and 50 walks in 443 at-bats. He started 2007 with the advanced-A Kinston Indians and switched to the Bakersfield Blaze mid-season after the Rangers acquired him for Kenny Lofton. But it wasn’t until 2008 that he absolutely broke out, posting a .354/.450/.646 line with 17 homers and 37 walks in just 243 at-bats during his first stint at double-A, earning a prompt promotion to triple-A Oklahoma City. Since then, however, he hasn’t quite been the same.

Present

After his call-up to Oklahoma City, Ramirez posted a .725 OPS in 10 games with the RedHawks before making the jump to the big leagues, where he posted a nearly identical .715 OPS in 17 appearances. A strong winter league showing didn’t seem to help Ramirez’s 2009 campaign, which was a struggle from the onset, marred by a wrist sprain that hampered him all season. Ramirez started out very slowly, and after a DL stint and a very brief rehab assignment in the Arizona League, he started making small progress. But his final line in ’09 was nowhere near where we’re used to seeing from him, going .234/.323/.336 with just five homers in 274 at-bats.

Defense has been a major question mark for Ramirez since his acquisition, with most experts projecting him as a DH or 1B at the ML level. Quite simply, his defense doesn’t quite stack up for a catcher by major league standards, and the Rangers have struggled to find a position that suits his glove any better. But, if he can get his bat back to where it was for Frisco in 2008, Texas would put him where ever they had to to get him at-bats.

Future

The lingering questions about his defense took a back seat to offensive concerns in 2009, but it seems a nagging wrist injury had as much to do with Ramirez’s struggles this year as anything physically or psychologically wrong with his approach. Ramirez will have a chance to return to form in 2010, but having just turned 25-years-old on October 11, he’s starting to outgrow the “prospect” label. If Ramirez can’t put it together next year, he’ll be treading dangerously close to Jason Botts territory.

While Miles Austin was setting the Cowboys’ record for receiving yards in a game with 250, Owens was piecing together a season high in catches with four. He doesn’t have 250 receiving yards this season. His team gave up six points and lost by three. Wonder if he texted Austin with congratulations.

Texas was No. 2 in the A.P. poll last week, defeated Colorado at home by 24 and dropped to No. 3 behind Alabama. TCU was No. 10, won by three at frigid Air Force and dropped to No. 12. Hmm.

UT received no help from Ole Miss and former Longhorn Jevan Snead, who kept throwing to guys wearing Alabama jerseys. Alabama and Southlake’s Greg McElroy scored one touchdown, kicked scads of field goals, and moved up. The voters apparently attributed Texas’ margin of victory to Colorado not being able to get out of its own way.

Colorado must play above its head to make teams like UT and Oklahoma break a sweat. The Buffs have lost to Colorado State and Toledo and couldn’t make the simple plays in Austin. Earlier Saturday on Fox Sports’ telecast of Oklahoma State-Texas A&M, while the Aggies were hanging tough, color analyst Dave Lapham indicated there are no easy games in Big 12 league play. Excuse me? Colorado, Kansas State and Iowa State will rarely threaten the rest of the league teams this season. Which is the way it is with a few schools in every major conference.

TCU remained undefeated with a 20-17 victory at Air Force, the Falcons scoring a touchdown in the final minute to pull within three. The Horned Frogs are 3-0 on the road, the first two coming against schools in BCS conferences:  30-14 at Virginia and 14-10 at Clemson. The win at Virginia gets better looking every week with Virginia turning things around to win at North Carolina and at home over Indiana by 40.

Miami moved up from 11 to 9 by beating Division I-AA Florida A&M. Iowa went from 12 to 10 with a two-point win at home over Michigan, which has yet to win a road game.

TCU’s big test will come in two weeks at BYU (5-1). If the Frogs win there, they still must hope No. 5 Boise State somehow stumbles to have any chance of cracking the BCS bowl lineup. Maybe at Tulsa this week because the game will be played on Wednesday night? Maybe in two weeks at Hawaii?

Last season’s Stars were in great measure done in by major injuries to top-line players like Brenden Morrow, Sergei Zubov and Brad Richards. This season, Mike Modano hasn’t played since opening night after getting jabbed in the ribs. And in Sunday night’s shootout loss at Vancouver, Steve Ott left in the first period with a strained oblique muscle and is day to day.

Jere Lehtinen finally made his first appearance of the season at Vancouver, and he might need to be watched closely all season. If Ott joins Modano on the shelf, even for the short term, it won’t help a team that needs to build chemistry under a new coach.

As Alex Rodriguez and Andy Pettitte celebrated with their Yankee teammates on Sunday night, I wonder what Roger Clemens was thinking.

So while a long offseason looms for us Dallas die-hards, the question of what key changes will be made to the Rangers roster for 2010 will likely have an answer by January. In truth, Texas doesn’t figure to throw a lot of money around on the  free agent market because, well, Tom Hicks doesn’t have it. It doesn’t help that the Rangers owe Vicente Padilla and Frank Catalanotto a couple million each to buyout their contracts, despite the fact that Cat hasn’t donned a Rangers uni in over a year and Padilla spent his Saturday pitching the Dodgers to their second straight NLCS berth (I slept until two and ate a day-old burrito. To each his own, I guess). But the Rangers supposedly aren’t looking to shed payroll, and if Evan Grant’s math is right, Jon Daniels and company could have at least a little cash to play with over the coming months.

Which brings us to Marlon Byrd.

Byrd started 100 games for the Rangers in center field this season and tallied another 41 starts in the corner outfield positions, providing much needed versatility in an outfield plagued with injuries and inconsistency. He got nearly half of his 547 at bats in prime run-producing positions, rewarding Ron Washinton’s confidence in him by posting a combined slash line of .305/.370/.554 while driving in 55 runs from the three and four spots in the order. By all accounts, he was a tremendous leader and clubhouse presence on a team rife with 20-somethings. He’s said that he wants to remain a Ranger. His teammates have spoken out about how vital his return is, with Michael Young being his most vocal supporter. Even the normally tight-lipped GM Jon Daniels, who prefers to play most things close to the vest, had this to say in a recent chat with Richard Durrett…

As we’ve told Marlon and his agent Sam Levinson, we’d like to have him back. Now it comes down to what fits for us financially, given the makeup of this team, and what he feels he’d accept. We’re not at the point just yet of exchanging specifics #s but we probably will be soon. If he’s not back, we have quality depth in the OF and we’ll also pursue alternatives via trade/FA.

It seems all parties want to get a deal done. So what’s the problem? At 32-years-old, Byrd is running out of time to really cash in on his playing career.  Sure, he’s earned about $5 million in the last two years, which is more than most people see in a lifetime. But that’s a pittance compared to what some of his peers make, and it’s what Alex Rodriguez pulled in for a month’s work this year, not including endorsements. So while Byrd and the Rangers have both said they’d like to reach an agreement, that’s no guarantee. Because talk is cheap, and Marlon Byrd won’t be.

When Byrd arrived in Arlington three years ago, he had just spent the ’05 and ’06 seasons struggling for playing time with the Washington Nationals, who, incidentally, finished last in the N.L. East both years. Byrd was 29-years-old, owned a career OPS of .692, and had been designated for assignment by one of the worst teams in baseball. After spending spring training with the Rangers, Byrd was promptly sent to triple-A in favor of guys like Brad Wilkerson and Jerry Hairston, Jr. In other words, his career was hanging by a thread.

But he got his chance in late May of 2007, and played in 109 of the Rangers’ final 116 games while posting career highs in batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS.  Prior to his stint in Texas, Byrd had never hit 10 homers, driven in 50 runs, or cracked an .800 OPS at the Major League level. He’s accomplished all three of those feats in each of his seasons as a Ranger.

So, obviously, Marlon Byrd’s been productive in Texas. He’s a gap hitter with a solid average and 10-20 home run power, putting him in the same category as quite a few well-known major leaguers. Offensively speaking, Byrd’s numbers compare to those of Randy Winn, Jose Guillen, or Alex Rios. Carl Crawford and Shane Victorino, save for the stolen base numbers, also bear a statistical resemblance and, to a lesser extent, so does Raul Ibañez. Though Ibañez’s statistics in the years leading up to his ’08 free agency were definitely superior to Byrd’s, they’re at least in the same stratosphere, and Ibañez managed to overcome the recession and land a three year, $31 million contract at the age of 36.

Then again, Bobby Abreu only managed a one year deal worth $5 million despite owning six — and now seven — straight seasons with at least 100 RBI, so who knows. But if there’s one common thread between all the aforementioned players, it’s that they make a lot more money than Marlon Byrd did last year. Jose Guillen earned $12 million with the Royals as part of a three year, $36 million contract he signed at 32-years-old, the same age Byrd is now. Carl Crawford brought in $8.2 million, Randy Winn made $9.6 million, and Alex Rios signed a six year, $64 million extension in 2008.

According to FanGraphs, Byrd accounted for 2.4 WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, which ranked him as the 21st best outfielder in the A.L. and put him in the middle of the pack.

At least financially, Byrd’s in good company. But on the down side, he ranked second to last in walk rate and dead last in BB/K ratio among all qualifying A.L. outfielders in 2009. He made some spectacular diving catches on defense, but those may have been covering up for a lack of range brought on by below-average speed in center field. While Byrd’s UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) was 2.1 in left field and 1.6 in right field, it was an ugly -5.3 in center, a number that only figures to get worse with age.

So, if the Rangers plan on bringing Byrd back to roam center field, relieving Josh Hamilton’s weary body and giving Julio Borbon time to learn the position, they might want to think again. While Byrd seems to catch everything he gets to, he might not get to as much as he should, and the notion of sticking him in a corner outfield spot seems to defeat the purpose of bringing him back, especially with Hamilton, Borbon, David Murphy, and Nelson Cruz already available there.

All things considered, it’s hard to imagine that Byrd could land an Ibañez-type deal that pays him $10 million annually. More than likely, Byrd will get a three or four year deal that will make him $6-8 million a year. The question is, are the Rangers willing to shell out $21 million for three more years of Marlon? It’s not the type of contract that would handcuff a franchise, and with Kevin Millwood’s salary coming off the books at the end of 2010, the Rangers could conceivably add a few big contracts in the coming years without actually adding payroll in the long-term. But if Tom Hicks’ financial situation means Marlon Byrd is the only big name the Rangers can bring in for the upcoming season, is that really enough?

Byrd figures to qualify as a type-B free agent, meaning if the Rangers offer him arbitration — which they should — and Byrd politely declines it — which he should — then at the very least, Texas would be compensated with a “sandwich pick,” which, unfortunately, isn’t as delicious as it sounds. MLB compensates teams that lose type-A and type-B free agents with an extra pick that falls between the 1st and 2nd rounds of the amateur draft. Recently, the Rangers have used sandwich picks to snag Julio Borbon and former Fresno State ace Tanner Scheppers, who could be at the top of Ranger prospect sheets next year.

So, in reality, there could be some value in losing Byrd. Not only could it free up the cash to make a big splash in a greater area of need, but it would give the Rangers the means to acquire another high-profile prospect. If Hicks decides re-signing Byrd doesn’t mean the Rangers are done for the winter, or Marlon decides he’d be willing to stick around for a one or two year deal, then his return likely won’t even be an issue.

But for all the strides the Rangers made in 2009, they still finished 10 games behind the Angels in the A.L. West and eight games back of the Red Sox in the Wild Card. And while it’s truly impossible to put a value on what a guy like Byrd can bring to a clubhouse, the fact remains that the Rangers have more players that can replace the production of a Marlon Byrd than, say, a Ben Sheets, assuming he’s healthy. All we know is, come April, the Rangers will take the field again, and Marlon Byrd will be ready to show off his fat new contract. They might just have to happen in two different places.