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Game Plan Friday: Seahawks (oops)

On Monday, I spent a fair amount of time wondering about how/why Tony Romo has looked like ‘07 Romo. Many of you have offered your theories and I will answer some of those in a soon-to-be-released mailbag. The most important thing is not why, the most important element of this run that could put the Cowboys in the mix for the 2009NFC Title run would be that he is playing very well right now. He has 1 interception in his last 4 games, and his last 2 games have been nearly perfect.

And when Tony Romo plays well, this team wins. In the last 2 weeks, he has had QB ratings of 113 and 140 and has not looked this good in a long time. Here is a stat for you:

When Tony Romo has a passer rating above 80, the Cowboys are 28-5, for 85%.
When he doesn’t, they are 3-9 or 25%.

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Football 301 – Week 7 – ATL – Targets/Sacks

Another week, and another chance for us to see where Tony Romo wants to go with the football. Also, who do we blame for the sacks? Let’s examine closely:

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Football 301 – Decoding Garrett – Week 7

DISCLAIMER: This is not for everyone. It may not be for you. This is a statistical study of the Cowboys offense with lots of numbers that may make your head tired if you are not up to it. Read it only if it is something that is of interest to you.

The Cowboys have had more successful days on offense than they had on Sunday, but when it came time to make a play, Tony Romo was absolutely up to the task. His new found favorite target, Miles Austin, has seemed to be the target that Romo has been missing for quite a while around here. Now that he has him, the offense does not rely on a running game to carry them.

A big WR who makes plays and demands coverage changes everything for the Cowboys. Hope he is not a mirage.

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The Morning After: Cowboys 37, Falcons 21

I have never seen, nor do I plan on seeing, the 1998 movie, “How Stella Got Her Groove Back”. I assume Stella had a groove – lost it somehow – and then spent a great deal of time trying to figure out how to re-acquire this groove again. I will also assume that she found this groove by the end of the movie or the title would have been rather mis-leading.

I take you down this unlikely road to bring the conversation to Tony Romo. I think we can all agree he also once had a groove. In his first 25 or so games in the NFL, he was somewhere between amazing and unbelievable. Then, something happened where he hit adversity and we began to see the weaknesses in his game. And for the last 20 or so starts, he just has not been the same guy who seemed like he played the game with everything happening around him in slow motion. Was something wrong with him? Was something wrong with his coaching? What happened to a guy who seemed to have the NFL figured out?

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Game Plan Friday: Atlanta Falcons

When the schedule came out in April, a few non-NFC East games jumped off the page at me. The Back-to-Back in December of my preseason Super Bowl teams San Diego and New Orleans looked incredibly formidable.

And then there was this one; the first ever Sunday Afternoon game played at the Brand New Death Star against last year’s Cinderella playoff story, the Atlanta Falcons.

I wrote about their franchise in pretty elaborate detail yesterday , so check that out if you want to see more about the impressive building of this team. But, today, let us visit about what this all means and how the Cowboys can seize a big opportunity to make a move in the NFC Playoff picture.

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Analyze the Enemy – Game 6 – Atlanta Falcons

THURSDAYS: We catch you up on this week’s opponent with an overall portrait of their team. This is not breaking down this week’s match-up, because that happens on Friday. This is just to set the table in preparation for laying out the gameplan.

Some teams are not as good as you think they should be based on their level of talent. And other teams are actually better than you think they should be because they play well as a team. They are coached well. They seldom beat themselves, and they just play football the way it was meant to be played. I suggest to you that one of those teams could very well be the 2009 Atlanta Falcons.

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Good “Bye Week” Musings

Tomorrow, we dive back into our Cowboys routine (Analyze the Falcons), as the bye week is over. Until then, here are 5,000 Words of Football Dorkdom:

I want to show you the results of a study or two we did during the bye week about the Cowboys offense. Hopefully, by now, you have some interest in our findings every Tuesday during the Season with our various “Football 301″ studies. Well, this week, and then the week after Thanksgiving will allow us a day or two to catch our breath and look at the bigger picture.

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If You Thought Cowboys Would Have Best Weekend in NFC East, Kindly Pass Along Lotto Numbers

The Giants blocked a New Orleans PAT attempt, but they failed to block the other six and lost by 21. The Eagles couldn’t score a touchdown on the Raiders. The Chiefs joined the Lions as beneficiaries of that little-known Washington stimulus program known as playing the Redskins.

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We Like The Football Musings

This morning, I wanted to show you a few numbers about this question about the 2-TE results. There is no doubt in anyone’s mind that the receiving portion of Martellus Bennett has been shockingly disappointing. You can ask a dozen people as to why, and you will get different responses about why Marty B has 4 catches in 5 weeks (not quite the 50 or so that I had thought possible!) for 40 yards. Surely, Tony Curtis could have done that.

But, does that mean the “12″ and the “22″ personnel packages are failing? Not even close.

Is the object of the game to get Martellus Bennett stats, or for this offense to prove it can be elite? Originally, I thought one would lead to another, but now we see something different so far.

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Football 301 – Week 5 – Targets/Sacks

Where is Tony Romo going with the ball? Who is catching those passes? Who is not? The answers are revealed below, as well as playing the “blame game” on pass rush.

Check it out:

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Football 301: Decoding Garrett – Week 5

DISCLAIMER: This is not for everyone. It may not be for you. This is a statistical study of the Cowboys offense with lots of numbers that may make your head tired if you are not up to it. Read it only if it is something that is of interest to you.

There are many issues with the Dallas Cowboys 2009 season. Many improvements that need to be made in this bye week. Many concerns about different departments doing their job better than they have been.

I am here to tell you that moving the football is not one of them. For the first 5 weeks, the Cowboys offense has gained an astounding 6.57 yards per snap. The Cowboys are #1 in the NFL in yards per game with 429.2 (New Orleans #2, New York Giants #3, Indianapolis #4, and Pittsburgh #5). The Cowboys are also #1 in yards from scrimmage, and yards per play. When it comes to moving the ball, the Dallas Cowboys – with all of their perceived warts, are moving the ball better than any team in the NFL.

The reason this doesn’t translate into points every week is 2 fold:

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On T.O., Texas and TCU, Stars’ Start, Etc.

While the Cowboys’ defense was seemingly setting new lows for offside penalties, Terrell Owens’ new offensive unit had 11 false starts.

While Miles Austin was setting the Cowboys’ record for receiving yards in a game with 250, Owens was piecing together a season high in catches with four. He doesn’t have 250 receiving yards this season. His team gave up six points and lost by three. Wonder if he texted Austin with congratulations.

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The Morning After: Cowboys 26, Chiefs 20 (OT)

Well, it would have been nice if that game would have given us something to talk about, right?

As you may recall, I am a big believer in the idea that wins are darn difficult to come by in this league, and when you get one, it is bad form to be picky about how you went about getting that win.

But, even I have my limitations. That was stinking ugly in so many ways that I seem to be ignoring my own advice.

The Chiefs gave the Cowboys all they could handle yesterday. Or, closer to the truth, the Dallas Cowboys made every attempt at giving the Chiefs the game yesterday. Sloppy perhaps doesn’t properly capture the way that this game was played. Penalties, turnovers, drops, more penalties, and various other elements conspired to keep the Chiefs in a game almost completely against their will.

We thought going into the game that the Chiefs were a very bad NFL team. They spent most of Sunday proving it, and yet, they remained in the lead for 57+ minutes because the Cowboys were compelled to repeatedly sabotage their own efforts. And then, just as the offense finally got its act together, the defense caved in. Similar to the Giants and Broncos games, the defense who had been solid all day long, picked just the wrong time to give up the crucial drive right down the field.

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Chiefs vs. Cowboys: Tribute to Lamar Hunt and Why I Don’t Like the Cowboys

Go Texans. I mean Chiefs.

I’ve never been a Dallas Cowboys fan. In fact, I’ve hated them from the moment they played their first game at the Cotton Bowl in 1960. I’d been at the Cotton Bowl the day before to watch my beloved Dallas Texans play. Fifty years later, I’m still bitter. I’ve always blamed the blue and silver for forcing my team to move to Kansas City. My friends, all members of the Dallas Texans Huddle Club, cried when we learned that Lenny Dawson, Abner Haynes, and, my favorite, Chris “#88” Burford were moving.

The Texans won the AFL title in 1962. I was ten. My dad, a member of the Spurs Club, gave me the championship ring that the team gave him as a loyal supporter of the team. (Please don’t ask me what I’ve done with it.) However, I still have an autographed picture and football that I keep at my desk. As you can see, I’m not quite over the move.

And neither is my baby brother, Bill Nichols. He writes a  lovely story about the Chiefs and the birth of the Cowboys. At noon, the Chiefs will host the Cowboys. I will watch the game, but only to see the Chiefs decked out in the original Dallas Texan uniforms as a tribute to owner Lamar Hunt who passed away in 2006. That’s not true. I will watch because I’d love to see the Chiefs kick the hell out of the Cowboys. Payback time. Go Chiefs. You still have fans in Dallas.

UPDATE: OH, YES. @:23. Do you go for two or the tie?? Tied at 20. (Hey Clark, send me one of those Texans caps.)

UPDATE: Miles Austin.

Game Plan Friday: Kansas City Chiefs

A few things we must consider about this week’s Cowboys opponent, their former Cotton Bowl co-habitants, the Kansas City Chiefs.

1) – This is the worst team they will play all year. I know it is popular to assume that Oakland is the worst team they will play all year, but Oakland won a game at Arrowhead Stadium already this season. With that in mind, I think we should be able to say for now that while Oakland is really, really bad – at least they can beat the Chiefs. Seriously, after trying to absorb as much knowledge as I can from watching the last 3 Chiefs games (vs Oakland, At Philadelphia, and vs New York Giants), there is very little to be impressed with regarding this former powerhouse.

2) – The Cowboys do not have the luxury to assume that they can beat the worst team on their schedule after losing last year (BADLY) in the 16th toughest game on the 2008 schedule when they were blown out by the St Louis Rams. A team that on October 19, 2008 beat the Cowboys like a rented mule so handily that even the absence of Tony Romo doesn’t explain why you trailed that team by 4 touchdowns for most of the 2nd half. That Rams team was so bad, that they haven’t won a game since that day. That’s right. The Rams have lost 14 straight since they drilled the Cowboys about a year ago. So, any team with that on their ledger, is not allowed to assume they can waltz into Kansas City and leave with an easy win.

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Analyze the Enemy – Week 5 – Kansas City Chiefs

THURSDAYS: We catch you up on this week’s opponent with an overall portrait of their team. This is not breaking down this week’s match-up, because that happens on Friday. This is just to set the table in preparation for laying out the gameplan.

5747 days.

There are very few teams who can claim a longer drought since a playoff win then your Dallas Cowboys. On Sunday, the Cowboys will be at 4669 days, and the Chiefs will be able to actually claim that they have gone over 1,000 more days since their last playoff win.

Jan 16th 1994, the Chiefs beat the Houston Oilers in Houston, 28-20. The next week, they went to Buffalo and lost 30-13 to the Bills. The week after that, The Cowboys beat Buffalo in Atlanta for their 2nd Super Bowl of the 1990’s.

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On Valley Ranch Rules, Crabtree, Tippett, Etc.

Media access to the Cowboys and all NFL teams has changed greatly from the days when Pete Rozelle ran the league and Tex Schramm ruled Valley Ranch. We now have situations like this week, when it took three days for reporters to learn Jason Garrett’s thinking near the Denver goal line, and when there was a 24-hour period from late Monday to late Tuesday when the local populace wondered if Tony Romo had lost track of downs.

In the case of Garrett, he’s made available once a week. That’s actually a 100 percent improvement over the Parcells rules, which treated all assistants as if hidden in a monastery. Romo’s designated day to address the media is Wednesday. When local media assumed for the better part of a day that Romo went into the final snap thinking it was third down, the Cowboys were compelled to issue a statement to the contrary.

NFL media policies are meant to minimize negative spin. Sometimes, they simply allow it to fester.

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Major League Baseball’s Playoffs Are Finally Here; Haven’t We Seen This Movie Already?

Baseball’s playoffs have begun. And don’t the teams look familiar? When compared to the other three sports over the past 10 years, MLB has had less movement between the haves and have nots, according to calculation performed by yours truly. While I can’t approach Sports Sturm in detailed dissection of numbers, I offer the following in trying to examine parity in the sports leagues – and how it’s decreasing in baseball.

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Football Muse You Can Use

As you know, Wednesday is my “day of rest” in the football week. So, this blog entry, while lengthy, will be mostly because my intern, TC, contributes 3,000 words (and some eye-catching photos) to this blog as he takes apart the Cowboys “Drive of the Week” with precision and detail.

Before we get to that, and an update on our weekly projects, let me cover two quick items:

Yesterday on the radio, Todd Archer of the DMN and now the Ticket, joined our show and we started talking about the Cowboys “blitz allergy”. When opponents blitz in the last few seasons, it is my premise that Romo and Garrett are actually worse now, than when Romo was a rookie.

Is it true?

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Football 301: Decoding Garrett – Week 4

DISCLAIMER: This is not for everyone. It may not be for you. This is a statistical study of the Cowboys offense with lots of numbers that may make your head tired if you are not up to it. Read it only if it is something that is of interest to you.

Before Denver put the brakes on this juggernaut of an offense, the results were difficult to comprehend. In the first 3 weeks of football, the Cowboys offense had the ball for 175 offensive snaps, and rolled up 1280 yards. That is an astounding 7.31 yards per snap. High School powers brag about 7.31 yards per snap. This doesn’t happen in the National Football League. Despite the feeling that the offense was failing, the reality is the yardage they rolled up was a fabulous sign.

But, when the Cowboys offense dropped to 4.37 a snap on Sunday, was it more of just a market correction or a down week?

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The Morning After: Broncos 17, Cowboys 10

On December 7, 2008, The Cowboys lost a 7 point game in Pittsburgh in which their defense played as well as they possibly could. They made a key 4th Quarter stand on 4th down, and tried to give the offense all they could to get the win.

But, the offense betrayed them.

It happened again yesterday in Denver. Despite the defense giving the team a game where you can really complain about one snap – they got beat in Denver. And, again, the offense betrayed them.

Winning on the road in the NFL is never easy. It requires a firm handle on ball security, and the ability to have a QB who can take a beating and still stick a throw in a tight spot under immense pressure. And in his last 4 road tests, Tony Romo has failed 3 – by a rather healthy margin.

Romo will get the headlines for yesterday’s loss in Denver, and in my estimation, much of it will be deserved. He missed too much, too often in Denver. Even in the most chaotic of situations, there will be plays to be made down the field. And when those situations appear, a QB is judged on his ability to put the ball where it has to be – no matter how badly he has been battered all game.

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Game Plan Friday: Denver Broncos

There are a lot of reasons why this game in Denver is one of the trendy upset picks across the league; Altitude. Noise. “Cowboys are over-rated”. “Broncos are under-rated”.

Whatever the reason, this is a game that most don’t want to miss. A true chance for both teams to prove what they are made of.

So, how do the Cowboys get to 3-1? By following a recipe that seems to be the best way for them to win games this year – Staking claim to that line of scrimmage.

I think we should all consider the way the Cowboys have played at the point of attack as the biggest source of optimism (and the most under-reported story) for this season to be the year the Cowboys break that dreaded 4,660 day drought since their last playoff win. With the exception of the defensive front seven in Tampa – a game which they admit they got “too cute” on their run blitzes and needed to just play “straight up” defense until proven otherwise – the Cowboys have been nearly impossible to run on. Two of the very best running offenses in the NFL have had no success against the Cowboys in the last few weeks. So much so that Carolina pretty much abandoned the run in the 2nd half altogether. That says quite a bit given how Carolina does business.

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Analyze the Enemy – Week 4 – Denver Broncos

THURSDAYS: We catch you up on this week’s opponent with an overall portrait of their team. This is not breaking down this week’s match-up, because that happens on Friday. This is just to set the table in preparation for laying out the gameplan.

Seven teams are undefeated in the National Football League through 3 games. Most of the 7 have major expectations this year for the playoffs and possibly the Super Bowl. The Saints, Giants, Vikings, Ravens, and Colts are thought to be amongst the best teams in the league. The final two teams are quite a surprise to the football world. The New York Jets – who offer a new coach and a rookie QB, and the unlikely story of this week’s opponent, the Denver Broncos.

Having watched the last two Denver games (at home vs. Cleveland; Away at Oakland) you certainly are impressed with a few aspects of this Broncos team. But overall, you are left wondering if their 3-0 start is more just a product of how their schedule is stacked.

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Football Musings on a Short Week

Short week, but as I break down the Broncos, check out some pretty good stuff including TC making another appearance with a solid breakdown of more Cowboys football:

First, let’s check in with our “winning correlation” numbers for the week. If you are familiar with what I am doing here, it is to check what people say about winning. Is it important to win the turnover battle to win a game? Absolutely, Positively! What about 100 yard rushers? Or 300 yard passers? Not as much. But there is still interesting stories to tell in each category. Here are the latest results:

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Football 301: Decoding Garrett – Week 3

DISCLAIMER: This is not for everyone. It may not be for you. This is a statistical study of the Cowboys offense with lots of numbers that may make your head tired if you are not up to it. Read it only if it is something that is of interest to you.

The win versus Carolina resulted in many people who follow this team to suggest it was a disappointing night for the offense. After all, they had 0 points at halftime, and really only accounted for 1 TD and 2 FGs against a defense that does not stun you with its talent.

But, was the offense bad? And if so, how do we define that?

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