Analyze the Enemy – Week 5 – Kansas City Chiefs

THURSDAYS: We catch you up on this week’s opponent with an overall portrait of their team. This is not breaking down this week’s match-up, because that happens on Friday. This is just to set the table in preparation for laying out the gameplan.

5747 days.

There are very few teams who can claim a longer drought since a playoff win then your Dallas Cowboys. On Sunday, the Cowboys will be at 4669 days, and the Chiefs will be able to actually claim that they have gone over 1,000 more days since their last playoff win.

Jan 16th 1994, the Chiefs beat the Houston Oilers in Houston, 28-20. The next week, they went to Buffalo and lost 30-13 to the Bills. The week after that, The Cowboys beat Buffalo in Atlanta for their 2nd Super Bowl of the 1990′s.

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On Valley Ranch Rules, Crabtree, Tippett, Etc.

Media access to the Cowboys and all NFL teams has changed greatly from the days when Pete Rozelle ran the league and Tex Schramm ruled Valley Ranch. We now have situations like this week, when it took three days for reporters to learn Jason Garrett’s thinking near the Denver goal line, and when there was a 24-hour period from late Monday to late Tuesday when the local populace wondered if Tony Romo had lost track of downs.

In the case of Garrett, he’s made available once a week. That’s actually a 100 percent improvement over the Parcells rules, which treated all assistants as if hidden in a monastery. Romo’s designated day to address the media is Wednesday. When local media assumed for the better part of a day that Romo went into the final snap thinking it was third down, the Cowboys were compelled to issue a statement to the contrary.

NFL media policies are meant to minimize negative spin. Sometimes, they simply allow it to fester.

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Major League Baseball’s Playoffs Are Finally Here; Haven’t We Seen This Movie Already?

Baseball’s playoffs have begun. And don’t the teams look familiar? When compared to the other three sports over the past 10 years, MLB has had less movement between the haves and have nots, according to calculation performed by yours truly. While I can’t approach Sports Sturm in detailed dissection of numbers, I offer the following in trying to examine parity in the sports leagues – and how it’s decreasing in baseball.

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Football Muse You Can Use

As you know, Wednesday is my “day of rest” in the football week. So, this blog entry, while lengthy, will be mostly because my intern, TC, contributes 3,000 words (and some eye-catching photos) to this blog as he takes apart the Cowboys “Drive of the Week” with precision and detail.

Before we get to that, and an update on our weekly projects, let me cover two quick items:

Yesterday on the radio, Todd Archer of the DMN and now the Ticket, joined our show and we started talking about the Cowboys “blitz allergy”. When opponents blitz in the last few seasons, it is my premise that Romo and Garrett are actually worse now, than when Romo was a rookie.

Is it true?

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Football 301: Decoding Garrett – Week 4

DISCLAIMER: This is not for everyone. It may not be for you. This is a statistical study of the Cowboys offense with lots of numbers that may make your head tired if you are not up to it. Read it only if it is something that is of interest to you.

Before Denver put the brakes on this juggernaut of an offense, the results were difficult to comprehend. In the first 3 weeks of football, the Cowboys offense had the ball for 175 offensive snaps, and rolled up 1280 yards. That is an astounding 7.31 yards per snap. High School powers brag about 7.31 yards per snap. This doesn’t happen in the National Football League. Despite the feeling that the offense was failing, the reality is the yardage they rolled up was a fabulous sign.

But, when the Cowboys offense dropped to 4.37 a snap on Sunday, was it more of just a market correction or a down week?

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The Morning After: Broncos 17, Cowboys 10

On December 7, 2008, The Cowboys lost a 7 point game in Pittsburgh in which their defense played as well as they possibly could. They made a key 4th Quarter stand on 4th down, and tried to give the offense all they could to get the win.

But, the offense betrayed them.

It happened again yesterday in Denver. Despite the defense giving the team a game where you can really complain about one snap – they got beat in Denver. And, again, the offense betrayed them.

Winning on the road in the NFL is never easy. It requires a firm handle on ball security, and the ability to have a QB who can take a beating and still stick a throw in a tight spot under immense pressure. And in his last 4 road tests, Tony Romo has failed 3 – by a rather healthy margin.

Romo will get the headlines for yesterday’s loss in Denver, and in my estimation, much of it will be deserved. He missed too much, too often in Denver. Even in the most chaotic of situations, there will be plays to be made down the field. And when those situations appear, a QB is judged on his ability to put the ball where it has to be – no matter how badly he has been battered all game.

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Game Plan Friday: Denver Broncos

There are a lot of reasons why this game in Denver is one of the trendy upset picks across the league; Altitude. Noise. “Cowboys are over-rated”. “Broncos are under-rated”.

Whatever the reason, this is a game that most don’t want to miss. A true chance for both teams to prove what they are made of.

So, how do the Cowboys get to 3-1? By following a recipe that seems to be the best way for them to win games this year – Staking claim to that line of scrimmage.

I think we should all consider the way the Cowboys have played at the point of attack as the biggest source of optimism (and the most under-reported story) for this season to be the year the Cowboys break that dreaded 4,660 day drought since their last playoff win. With the exception of the defensive front seven in Tampa – a game which they admit they got “too cute” on their run blitzes and needed to just play “straight up” defense until proven otherwise – the Cowboys have been nearly impossible to run on. Two of the very best running offenses in the NFL have had no success against the Cowboys in the last few weeks. So much so that Carolina pretty much abandoned the run in the 2nd half altogether. That says quite a bit given how Carolina does business.

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Analyze the Enemy – Week 4 – Denver Broncos

THURSDAYS: We catch you up on this week’s opponent with an overall portrait of their team. This is not breaking down this week’s match-up, because that happens on Friday. This is just to set the table in preparation for laying out the gameplan.

Seven teams are undefeated in the National Football League through 3 games. Most of the 7 have major expectations this year for the playoffs and possibly the Super Bowl. The Saints, Giants, Vikings, Ravens, and Colts are thought to be amongst the best teams in the league. The final two teams are quite a surprise to the football world. The New York Jets – who offer a new coach and a rookie QB, and the unlikely story of this week’s opponent, the Denver Broncos.

Having watched the last two Denver games (at home vs. Cleveland; Away at Oakland) you certainly are impressed with a few aspects of this Broncos team. But overall, you are left wondering if their 3-0 start is more just a product of how their schedule is stacked.

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Football Musings on a Short Week

Short week, but as I break down the Broncos, check out some pretty good stuff including TC making another appearance with a solid breakdown of more Cowboys football:

First, let’s check in with our “winning correlation” numbers for the week. If you are familiar with what I am doing here, it is to check what people say about winning. Is it important to win the turnover battle to win a game? Absolutely, Positively! What about 100 yard rushers? Or 300 yard passers? Not as much. But there is still interesting stories to tell in each category. Here are the latest results:

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Football 301: Decoding Garrett – Week 3

DISCLAIMER: This is not for everyone. It may not be for you. This is a statistical study of the Cowboys offense with lots of numbers that may make your head tired if you are not up to it. Read it only if it is something that is of interest to you.

The win versus Carolina resulted in many people who follow this team to suggest it was a disappointing night for the offense. After all, they had 0 points at halftime, and really only accounted for 1 TD and 2 FGs against a defense that does not stun you with its talent.

But, was the offense bad? And if so, how do we define that?

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The Morning After: Cowboys 21, Panthers 7

Not every single NFL game turns on one play, but quite a few of them do. And without question, Dallas’ first Monday Night win in their new stadium absolutely turned on one play and one play only.

2nd Down, 10 yards to go for the Panthers at their own 22 yard line with 5:15 left to go in the 4th Quarter. They have been badly outplayed in the 2nd half, but now own the football and only trail the Cowboys by 6 points. This is the ultimate opportunity to steal a game with a touchdown, and get that win that Carolina needs so badly.

ESPN, after Jake Delhomme takes a deep shot to Steve Smith on 1st down, shows a montage of Terrence Newman up in tight and aggressive coverage on Smith in the 2nd half, frustrating Smith to a point of a temper tantrum on the sideline.

The Panthers are flooding the right side of the line on this 2nd and 10, with Muhsin Muhammad, Jeff King, Donte Rosario, and DeAngelo Williams all running routes to the offensive right. Steve Smith is split to the left, and the Cowboys counter with Newman tight, and Hamlin over the top. The Panthers have to be thinking that since they took a deep shot to Smith on 1st down, chances are that Newman would be leaning back on a deeper route and conceding the slant.

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Huddle Up: Cowboys-Carolina MNF In-Game Blog

The local populace is in a lather because the Cowboys followed a dominating win over a bad team on the road with a loss at home on the final play to the defending NFC East champs. It’s all in the timing, especially when showing off your new $1.15 billion living room.

Beating Carolina should be routine. While the Cowboys will probably play it safe and sit RB Marion Barber, the Panthers have a slew of starters out through no choice of their own. OLB Na’il Diggs has bruised ribs, S Chris Harris a bad knee, FB Brad Hoover a bad back, DE Everette Brown a bum ankle. The Panthers, among the NFC elite last season, have probably heard everyone recite this week that an 0-3 start ends your season. Not sure they can do much to avoid it.

7:09: On ESPN’s pre-game show, Keyshawn Johnson said his impression of Tony Romo having played with him for two years was Romo “did enough to get by” day in and day out.

Game Plan Friday (on Monday) – Carolina

After a long week of the sky falling, another chance arises to knock out that first home victory in the new stadium along with a chance for another broadcast crew to run the new stadium’s fun facts right into the ground.

Welcome to Week 3: Cowboys and Carolina Panthers on Monday Night Football. Both teams desperately need wins, as the Panthers certainly don’t want to join the Tennessee Titans as another playoff team from 2008 that starts 0-3 and is left for dead (although they have already been left for dead by most) and the Cowboys face a 2 week roadtrip to two difficult stadiums (albeit not the toughest teams in the league) before their bye week. You could only imagine the mass hysteria if this Cowboys team has to wait until October 25th for another chance at getting its first win in Arlington. They don’t want that hanging over them.

We looked closely at the Panthers on Thursday, so if you would like to review that, Click Here and read until your heart is content .

So, how do we get to 2-1? If you do get to 2-1, the sun rises tomorrow with renewed optimism for the 2009 season, and the idea that if you can beat Denver and Kansas City going into the bye week that this team will be right where it needs to be the next time they play a home game. If they don’t get a win tonight, the usual implosion warnings will be sounded.

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Analyze The Enemy – Week 3 – Carolina Panthers

THURSDAYS: We catch you up on this week’s opponent with an overall portrait of their team. This is not breaking down this week’s match-up, because that happens on Friday. This is just to set the table in preparation for laying out the gameplan.

In Week 3, The Cowboys welcome another playoff team from 2008, those Carolina Panthers for a little Monday Night Football. The Panthers are certainly another team that has its share of critics across the league, and as usual – the targets on that team are two familiar positions for football criticism, Head Coach and Quarterback.

John Fox, entering his 8th year as head coach of the Panthers, took the job over after serving 5 years with the New York Giants under Jim Fassel, where the Giants went all the way to Super Bowl 35. Led by their defense, Fox was the hot name for a few offseasons, and in 2002 he took over the Panthers who were coming of a 1-15 2001 under their previous coach, George Seifert. In fact, as hard as it is to believe, Fox has been the coach of the Panthers longer than Seifert and Dom Capers combined. Capers only coached in Carolina for 4 years (going to the ’96 NFC Championship game), Seifert for 3 (going 16-32). Fox, 63-49 in his 7+ seasons, took the Panthers to the brink of a Super Bowl 38 victory in his 2nd year, and to the NFC Title game in his 4th year, before losing to the Seahawks. His 3rd trip to the playoffs was last season where the Panthers equaled a franchise-high 12-4 record, but then were demolished in Charlotte by the Arizona Cardinals in the playoffs.

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Football Muse You Can Use

For our Wednesday NFL Reset column this week, I wanted to get something for you to examine that I have been meaning to publish for a few weeks. It is a trend that I love to follow because September is always the month everyone projects their own personal playoff predictions.

I am no different, and this year I predicted (before the season started) that the Eagles, Cowboys, Packers, Saints, Seahawks, and Falcons would make the NFC Playoffs, and the Patriots, Colts, Bengals, Steelers, Chargers, and Titans would make the AFC Playoffs. I had the Saints-Chargers in the Super Bowl, with the Saints winning it all.

Anyway, the reason I wanted to print it here (rather than just say it on the radio) was to show you a very interesting trend that one should consider before guessing who is going to be in the 2009 playoffs. And, I should have shown you this 3 weeks ago so you could have known this before you made your own predictions. Sorry. I have been really busy with all of this Football 301 stuff.

The Trend is this – Since 1991, when the NFL Expanded its playoffs to 12 teams, each year has averaged 5.8 new teams each year. To say it slightly differently, only 6 teams make it back to the playoffs the next year – and the other 6 teams are brand new.

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