On Monday, I spent a fair amount of time wondering about how/why Tony Romo has looked like ’07 Romo. Many of you have offered your theories and I will answer some of those in a soon-to-be-released mailbag. The most important thing is not why, the most important element of this run that could put the Cowboys in the mix for the 2009NFC Title run would be that he is playing very well right now. He has 1 interception in his last 4 games, and his last 2 games have been nearly perfect.

And when Tony Romo plays well, this team wins. In the last 2 weeks, he has had QB ratings of 113 and 140 and has not looked this good in a long time. Here is a stat for you:

When Tony Romo has a passer rating above 80, the Cowboys are 28-5, for 85%.
When he doesn’t, they are 3-9 or 25%.

That is why people make such a big deal about how well he plays. And that is why Miles Austin has injected about as much optimism into the Cowboys offense as we have seen since the Julius Jones era.

Michael Signora is a statistical guru for the NFL, and I follow him on his twitter feed. This week, he had two jaw dropping tweets about Austin that I think you need to soak in:

1) – Miles Austin is 1 of 3 players in NFL history with 400+ receiving yards & 4+ TDs in 2-game span (Ochocinco, ’06; Cloyce Box, ’50)

2) – With 421 receiving yards in 1st 2 career starts, Miles Austin already has more yards than any player ever in their 1st 3 starts

Nobody is suggesting he can keep up his insane pace of nearly 24 yards a catch. But, if he can continue to demonstrate the ability to be a “go to” target for Romo in needed spots, and to attract coverage his way that indicates defenses will either respect him or pay the consequences, then there is no reason to believe that Romo cannot continue to hit that all important 80 QB rating every game.

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Which brings us to this week’s opponent, the 2-4 Seattle Seahawks. This is a team that has had some substantial amounts of talent in recent years, but they have likely been a victim of something the Cowboys fell victim of about a decade ago: Believing that their top level players had more of their prime left than they really did. For 5 straight seasons (2003-2007) The Seahawks dominated the NFC West under Mike Holmgren, and were in the playoffs. During that stretch they won 4 playoff games, and felt they were a bad call or two away from winning Super Bowl XL over Pittsburgh.

They were led by RB Shaun Alexander, QB Matt Hasselbeck, and LT Walter Jones. In 2009, the remains of that trio is the reason the Seahawks are where they are. Alexander is out of football as a reminder that the prime of a RB is over quickly as a possible victim of the curse of 370 (Remember his 11 carries with the Redskins last year?) Hasselbeck, now is now 34, and has missed 10 starts in the Seahawks last 20 games, and has only made 16 starts 3 times in his 11 year career. And Walter Jones has not played a down in 2009, and the Seahawks will try their 4th replacement for Jones. Walter Jones became Sean Locklear who turned into Brandon Frye and then Kyle Williams and now Damion McIntosh. All at left tackle in 6 games. Consider that next time you complain about Flozell.

In the preseason, The National Football Post rated the Seahawks talent like this:

BLUE CHIP: OT, W. Jones.

ALMOST BLUE: QB, Hasselbeck; DT, Mebane; ILB, Tatupu; CB, Trufant.

Without Hasselbeck for 3 starts, Jones for the entire season, Trufant has yet to play (will make his debut this week), and Lofa Tatupu is now gone for the year. You can see how the Seahawks are already looking ahead to the draft. If you have 5 players that the experts rank as remarkable, and 4 are not with you, your season is going to be rough.

Beyond that, the Seahawks have another weight on their neck, The issue of travel out of the Pacific:

Seattle has won only one of its past 10 games played outside the Pacific Time Zone. That poses kind of a problem because four of Seattle’s next five games will require the Seahawks to adjust their watches.

Football coaches have control over a number of things in the 32 NFL fiefdoms. Geography, however, is not one of them and the travel schedule is simply a reality that comes with being the most isolated NFL franchise.

Six of Seattle’s eight road games are to be played in the Eastern or Central time zones, which means those six games will start at 10 a.m. Pacific time, including Sunday’s game in Dallas.

Is playing at 10am local time a big deal in the NFL? Or would the Seahawks be 1-9 in their last 10 road games regardless of where they played?

Seattle represents the 4th out of 8 home games for the Cowboys. With tough upcoming road dates with Philadelphia, New York, Green Bay, and New Orleans – 4 games in which the Cowboys will be underdogs, it is important that they win the games they should win at home. With the next 3 home games being a depleted Seattle, Washington, and Oakland (with San Diego and Philadelphia in December) it is important for the Cowboys to eat up these easier meals so that they are still in the mix when the holidays arrive.

In the last 2 weeks, the Redskins have lost twice, the Giants have lost twice, and the Eagles were 1-1. The entire division have done the Cowboys a great favor by going 1-5, with the only win coming when the Eagles beat the Redskins. Rarely, will an entire division offer you an invitation like the NFC East has for the Cowboys.

But, it all depends on taking care of this wounded Seahawks team before hitting the road for 2 difficult dates:

ON OFFENSE:

This week, the Cowboys take on a defense that has not had all of its parts available, but things improve somewhat on Sunday. Marcus Trufant will play some on Sunday, with reports out of Seattle indicating that he will likely fill the role of nickel back in Dallas. Meanwhile, Leroy Hill, their solid Outside LB will rejoin the team the same weak that the Middle LB, Tatupu has been lost for the year.

With the Seahawks, there has been some good as some not so good during 2009 on defense. They can get to the QB with a reasonable rate, led by Patrick Kearney grabbing 4 sacks in the last 4 games. They dominated the Rams and the Jaguars in Seattle for their 2 wins which were both blowouts. Otherwise, they are coming off a game where the Cardinals visited Seattle, and the Kurt Warner-Larry Fitzgerald show danced all over the Seahawks home turf.

OFFENSIVE OBJECTIVES:

1) – Run the Ball With Effectiveness – One thing that has dropped off from its incredible start is the Cowboys running of the football. They still average 5.6 yards per carry, but in Denver and then last week, they really had to work for their yardage. As the weather begins to turn, and the Cowboys begin to play on grass surfaces, they need to have their running game completely locked in. Last week, 28 carries for 115 yards was not horrible, but if you do not count Romo’s yards, it was basically 22 carries for 84 yards for the RBs. Barber against Atlanta had 14 carries for 47 yards (3.4 avg). Since hurting himself in the Giants game, Barber missed the Carolina game altogether, and then has had the yards per carry of 3.7, 3.5, and 3.4 in his last 3 games. Getting Barber going is essential for November and December success. It seems like the biggest thing for the RBs these days is just making sure Barber and Felix are healthy.

2) – Pick up the Inside Blitzes – Speaking of things on the RBs minds, it seems that we are seeing a steady diet of inside blitzes. Blitzes come from to areas of the field – the edge (off tackles) and up the gut (Through the “A” gaps and “B” gaps). The Blitzes that have hurt the Cowboys have generally been through the Gaps around the centers and guards. I am sure the offense has spent plenty of time discussing it, and last week, they did a pretty good job. The problem is that the defense only has to get it right a few times to do damage to your QB and cause turnovers. I have been disappointed in the blitz recognition from Leonard Davis in particular up front and Tashard Choice at RB. These two were both on the scene for sacks against the Chiefs and Falcons because they did not recognize who was coming and who was not. In presnap, Romo attempts to identify the blitz with help from Andre Gurode, and you have to figure it out correctly. Inside LBs and Safeties have been the Achilles heel so far, and that needs to be sorted out. It will be interesting to see if we see improvement on this front.

3) – Jason Witten down the Seam – If you have been following along with our study of target distribution , you know that Jason Witten has caught an incredible 33 of the 40 passes intended for him this season – and 8 for 8 on 3rd down situations. The numbers have been steady from game to game, but he has sort of seemed to be lost in the game plan for big chunks recently. I think the emergence of Austin will open things up further for him and the mystery TE, Martellus Bennett for some big gainers down the seam. When that happens, this offense should be unstoppable.

4) – Patience, Patience, Patience – Part of beating a team that you should beat is to be patient and methodical in your plan. Don’t get antsy (as Garrett will do) and take unnecessary chances early on. That can backfire, and before long you have allowed an inferior opponent to hang around. I think a steady dose of cranking up that diesel running game and mashing the Seahawks into a fine powder is the recipe for success. Lots of “22″ and “13″ personnel power running. This is what the Cowboys do well, and this is what they need to continue to do against the better teams down the stretch.

ON DEFENSE:

Defensively, we finally saw things come together last Sunday against a decent Atlanta offense. The Cowboys allowed only 298 yards of offense and combined that with 3 big takeaways. This is the story of success for the Cowboys – when they get multiple takeaways, they seldom lose.

If there is a problem that we have seen through 6 games for this defense, it is that opposing QBs are averaging a QB rating of 90 against Dallas. The Giants allow their opponents a 78 rating, and the Eagles a 70. That stat will not get it done for Dallas, as they have really only troubled Jake Delhomme and Matt Ryan. Others, like Byron Leftwich and Kyle Orton had very strong passing performances. I think we all know that a pressure is important, and we can only hope that Wade Phillips and his staff is determined to bring the blitz at the proper times to help a defensive line that is slowly but surely coming around.

One thing they have done well is 3rd down defense. Allowing only 25 conversions in 75 attempts for their opponents, we can say the Cowboys have been able to get off the field. Only 5 teams have done better so far this year than the Cowboys (Denver, NYG, Arizona, Phil, and New Orleans). This might be the most important defensive stat in football (after takeaways), so let’s keep an eye on that one.

DEFENSIVE OBJECTIVES:

1) – Test those cracked ribs – Matt Hasselbeck is hurting. He doesn’t take part in practices much, and he looks like he tries to carry on in pain. He also is playing behind an offensive line that has very little going for it right now. There are huge issues with the Seattle OL due to health, and they are in a position where they often go max-protect (7-8 man protection schemes) to buy him time. This should make the job easier on the secondary as a whole, but it will offer interesting choices for Wade on when to blitz and how many to bring. Seattle starts their offense by protecting and if that fails (as it did against Arizona) they have no chance.

2) – The secondary must be ready for multiple threats – Despite all manner of chaos in the passing game, the Seahawks have 2 WRs with 30+ catches in Nate Burleson (32) and TJ Houshmandzadeh (31). This is actually quite remarkable given that Seneca Wallace started 3 games and could get nothing going. Both Burleson and TJ are capable of big plays, and TJ has stated that he needs to be a bigger part of the offense. There are very few off-weeks for the secondary in this league, and this won’t be one of them for Terrence Newman and Mike Jenkins. Jenkins is coming off a week that everyone has called the best of his pro career, so let’s see if he can build on it against a very capable passing offense. John Carlson has had 24 catches from the TE position as a young and promising pass-catching TE for the Seahawks. He is not Tony Gonzalez, but he can make you pay if you forget him.

3) – Be Mindful of Forsett – In watching the Seahawks last several games, I am convinced Julius Jones and Edgerrin James is about as weak a RB tandem as you might see all year. Jones still falls at first contact and rarely makes anyone miss. James is just done, and shows very little burst at all. But, Justin Forsett, the former California Golden Bear from the DeSean Jackson era, looks like he offers burst and quickness as a return man and a 3rd down back. He has yet to do much, but since the Seahawks are coming off a bye week, if I were to guess what new wrinkle they might show, it might be to feature Forsett a little more in the 2nd half of their season to find out if he might provide them something from the RB position. But, truth be told, they really need a feature back in the offseason.

4) – Keep the Takeaway Game Going – With 3 takeaways last week, some of us may think the Cowboys are starting to get rolling in that category. Guess again. With 7 for the season, they are still dead last in the NFL (tied with Carolina and Washington). If you want to run with the big dogs, just know that Philadelphia and New Orleans have 18 takeaways a piece. Progress has been made, but there is so much room to go. Must. Get. Turnovers.

SUMMARY: This is a game that is not optional. The Cowboys must prove they can handle success and win the easier games on their slate. Coming off the KC close-call, I would hope that they are not putting this game into the win column prematurely.

This is a wounded Seattle team, but they are coming off a “bye” week. They should be relatively fresh and ready to roll. A win could get the Seahawks back into their divisional mix, and you will get their best effort.

That shouldn’t be enough, though, and the Cowboys should be able to dismantle this team in the 2nd half and win by double digits.

Cowboys 27, Seattle 17

Past Issues:

Atlanta Falcons Game Plan

Kansas City Game Plan

Denver Game Plan

Carolina Game Plan

Giants Game Plan

Tampa Bay Game Plan

But, before we get to all of that, here are a few other things before we check our weekly numbers:

1) Occasionally, while watching a Cowboys game, I will see something that I have no place for in one of my entries, but I just wanted to share it with you anyway. Here is one of those cases. I can’t explain why, but for some reason, nothing makes me crazier when watching a football game than the Defensive Backs who refuse to tackle altogether or refuse to tackle properly. It seemed like once upon a time there was the idea that DBs could tackle and would do so utilizing proper technique with arms wrapping up and driving. Somehow, over the years, DBs have found that it is easier (albeit lower percentage) to simply launch a shoulder and hope you knock the player silly.

Well, here is Terence Newman in this video. DcFanatic cut up the attempt that jumped out at me in the 2nd Quarter against Atlanta where he completely missed Roddy White, along with a similar result with the Giants, followed by his strong connection later in the game on 84:

It reminded me of a story I was reading out of Philadelphia where Asante Samuel is being critiqued for his lack of tackling and makes no apologies:

Samuel on Friday responded to the mouting critics of his tackling acumen. They didn’t bring him here to take down ball carriers, he promised.

“I didn’t get signed here because I was a great tackler,” Samuel said. “Everbody saw my film [before he was signed].”

Maybe so, but that answer won’t satisfy defensive coordinator Sean McDermott, who in his own way insinuated that Samuel is one of the highest-paid cornerbacks in football, so he better tackle like one.

The issue comes after Samuel’s less-than-aggressive tackle attempt on Zach Miller’s 86-yard TD catch Sunday, the lone TD in the Eagles’ 13-9 loss to the lowly Raiders, who hadn’t scored a touchdown in three games.

So, after reading that, I had to find the play that they were talking about. Thanks to Youtube, here it is:

Right after Miller catches the pass, watch Samuel bail out at about the 36 yard line. Awesome unintentional comedy.

Poor tackling is not a Cowboys issue, it is all over the league. And I suggest that often times, it is the highly compensated DB making a “business decision” as Deion used to say. That might be why I generally enjoy the fine work of Minnesota’s Antoine Winfield who loves to tackle in all situations – despite his hefty paycheck. Of course, he is also going to miss a month with an injury, but don’t worry about that.

In case you care, here is Asante’s deal of 6 years/$57m:

The details are in on Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Asante Samuel’s contract, and he’ll make $32.14 million in the first three years of the deal. The contract looks like this:

Signing Bonus: $6M
Roster Bonuses: $7M in 2008, $7M in 2009
Workout Bonuses: $500K in 2008, $100K per year for the rest of the contract.
Base Salaries (Cap Number)
2008: $645K ($9.145M)
2009: $1.9M ($9M)
2010: $8.895M ($9.995M)
2011: $5.9M ($7M)
2012: $8.4M ($9.5M)
2013: $10.4M ($11.5M)

And, Newman’s deal :

5/20/2008: Signed a six-year, $50.2 million contract extension through 2014. The deal contains $22.5 million guaranteed, including a $12 million signing bonus.
2009: $895,000,
2010: $9 million,
2011: $8 million,
2012: $6.016 million,
2013: $7,600,417,
2014: $7.5 million,
2015: Free Agent

Bob Gainey used to say that “it is tough to be hungry when you are full.”

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2) Now on to our statistical studies we update on Wednesdays. The top one tracks how often the winners of the turnover battles actually win the game. The numbers are staggering, but about where they are every season. So far in 2009, the winners of the turnover battle have won the game 69 of the 83 game for a 83% number. This is obviously not related in any way to home field, talent discrepencies, play-calling, or injuries. This simply says: take care of the football better than your opponent, and you win almost all of the time. Just 1 team was able to overcome a -1 this week, and that was the Saints in that crazy game in Miami.

Table Tutorial

Table Tutorial

And, then below we compare the winning correlation between the 100-yard rusher and the 300-yard passer. Through 7 weeks, the results are too close to call:

Table Tutorial

Table Tutorial

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TC’s Drive Of the Week: (Each week, my young, trusty intern, TC Fleming, breaks down a drive from around the NFL from a purely X’s and O’s perspective – just because he can. Warning, when other people say “break down” they are not serious. TC is very serious)

I think the real reason we’re focusing on the 49ers is because most of the games this week were boring. Except for the Saints-Dolphins, who we did last week, and Steelers-Vikings, who I considered heavily, this was about the only game where the final score was close. But among those slim pickings, I felt most intrigued by what schemes could get Alex Smith and the 49ers offense not to suck, especially when they had sucked so badly earlier in this same game. To satisfy that interest, I turned to the team’s final touchdown drive against the Texans.

They opened the drive with one of their two plays from under center with both wide receivers to the right, Vernon Davis in tight to the left, and two running backs in an offset I in the backfield. The wrinkle here is that the fullback was former Penn State quarterback and current 49ers backup halfback Michael Robinson. Before the snap, outside receiver Josh Morgan starts toward the backfield. Smith snaps the ball, fakes the handoff to Frank Gore and to Morgan before setting up to pass. This is something they have been setting up all game, motioning Morgan into the backfield and then executing a normal running play but with a fake to Morgan after the handoff. I suspect the real goal in this is not to trick them into a big gain off of this play action but is rather to open up the regular, straight-forward run. The 49ers have quite a claim to sporting the worst offensive line in football, so they need to do things to trick it up if they want to have success on the ground. So if they hit on one of these plays, either the end-around or the play-action pass, then the Texans defenders will be more hesitant and give the blockers an advantage they need just to be competitive.

The formation is also of interest, too, as Brian Billick pointed out on the broadcast. By putting two receivers to the same side, the Texans are forced to make obvious statements about their coverage, either putting a corner over the slot receiver and showing they’re in man or leaving one corner to each side and showing they’re in zone.

As to the pass itself, it’s slow in developing with all the fakes, so both Vernon Davis and Frank Gore stay in as blockers. With Morgan on the fake, this leaves only Michael Robinson and Michael Crabtree as options. Crabtree is running a ‘Go,’ hoping the safeties will bite on the fake and that he will be behind them before they realize the mistake. Robinson first acts as if lead blocking before looking back for a pass from Smith. Before too long, he, too, heads straight upfield. However, Mario Williams kills right tackle Adam Snyder at the snap and puts pressure on Smith from the start. It’s all Smith can do to toss the ball away.

I question how much of a chance at success this play had with good protection. There were only two receivers against all the defenders in coverage, all 6 of them. So they would have to fool quite a few defenders, all of whom are probably not too afraid of a running attack that hadn’t done much to that point. And that’s a downside of the aforementioned formation: by putting the receivers on the same side, you’re calling the defense’s attention to that side. Attention is not what you want when you’re trying to sneak a receiver past the coverage.

The next play is more typical of what we would see on this drive. Smith is in shotgun with five receivers at or near the line of scrimmage. As we have seen both the Cowboys and Saints do, they do so from their 12 package, with their tight ends and running back playing as wide receivers. As stated in weeks past, the advantage is that when the defense sees the players in the huddle, they match up by sending out their normal complement of linebackers. In most cases, at least one of these linebackers is poor in coverage.

The focus on this play is the right side of the formation, where Davis, backup tight end Delanie Walker and Morgan are lined up. Davis is just off the line and Morgan is on the outside with Walker in the slot. Both Davis and Morgan take off at the start, and once their defenders go into their backpedal, they break the route off into a hitch. Walker is running a ‘Go’ between them. Brian Cushing is lined up over Walker, and Cushing is bumping Walker. When Morgan makes his turn back to Smith, Cushing is still engaged with Walker, so there is no one in between Morgan and Smith. Further, Smith’s timing is very good, so the corner has no time to recover. As seems to be the norm with many-receivered sets like this, the safety is playing too conservatively to be a factor in preventing a completion. This is precisely the sort of play the 49ers need. For years they have shown an inability to generate big plays, and until Crabtree really becomes a factor, that does not figure to change. But if they can find lots of easy completions like this one where the quarterback has an easy read, and the line has as little pressure on it as possible, then they can have hope of finding something they can hand their hat on offensively. I think that is where this team can carve out an offense with their current middling talent: easy little plays where they exploit a soft spot to pick up 5 yards without asking too much of anyone.

There’s a weird substitution penalty, and the 49ers get backed up to 1^st and 15. The next play is the final time on this drive that Alex Smith goes under center.  Much like the Saints did last week, the 49ers put an extra lineman in at tight end, to bring the tight end count to three, with Morgan at wide receiver split to the left. Smith fakes to Gore, which doesn’t get too much of  reaction from the defense. Morgan runs deep, with the hope of taking his corner and safety with him. Davis then works behind the linebackers before breaking for the corner. Unfortunately, Eugene Wilson, the safety on that side, does not go with Morgan (after all, he is still just Josh Morgan). He locks on to Davis a little before he breaks and makes a very nice play to break up the pass.

From 2^nd and 15, the 49ers go back to the four-wide set with Smith in the shotgun next to Gore. The patterns are roughly the same, with the outside receivers running deep and the slot receivers running curls. Gore might make the slightest chip of the defensive end, then releases out to the flat. The Texans seem to be in man coverage, with the weakside linebacker chasing Gore when he goes out for a pass. Meanwhile, the strongside linebacker blitzes. So when the two slot receivers run curls well in front of the safeties, the middle linebacker is defending both of those slot receivers. Smith throws to Vernon Davis on the left, who is very open and the best choice of the two. The middle linebacker is at least there to make the tackle, but it’s another easy completion to a soft part of the defense that nets an easy nine yards.

That gain of nine sets up the only third down of the drive, obviously a very key play. Short aside: Smith makes the hand motion where he makes a steeple with his fingers. I think we’ve all seen this a number of times watching football. Billick explains this is the quarterback letting the offense know they are huddling up. I’ve seen the motion plenty of times and did not know until now what it meant. Maybe I’m alone in my ignorance, but I thought that might be a nice tidbit for somebody. Anyways, back to the play. The 49ers again are in their favorite formation, shotgun with four receivers, two to each side. They do switch what receivers are where from play to play. Every time, the two tight ends are split out to one side with the two wide receivers to the other. I believe the wide receivers, Morgan and Crabtree, are to the open side of the field, the one with the most distance to the sideline, while the tight ends are to the closed side. This time, the open side is the left side, so the receivers are there.

Initially, the Texans give a 2-deep look (this is a benefit of the four-wide formation, it becomes clearer who is covering whom, since they are so spread apart that it is not possible for a defender to look like his assigned to one guy but switch to the other or things like that). Before the snap, the safeties rotate with the safety in the left coming over the top and the safety on the right coming down towards the two receivers. That is because the cornerback on the slot receiver is blitzing. This is in addition to the linebacker on that side, who is blitzing as well. That leaves both receivers in single coverage with minimal hope of help over the top. Morgan, who is in the slot, first runs a quick hitch but almost immediately begins working towards the sideline. The benefits of this are two-fold: Morgan is hopefully getting open in order to be a hot route for Smith, while he is also pulling his man towards the sideline, opening up a window for Crabtree, who is running a square-in behind him. Crabtree’s man is playing to keep Crabtree in front of him, so when Morgan opens that window, there is no one in between Smith and Crabtree. Smith’s pass is a little high, but Crabtree makes a nice little grab to convert the third down. It’s a pretty impressive play for someone who hasn’t played football in a number of months and never played football in the NFL. The real star of the play is the protection. This play takes a little bit to set up, more than the previous few completions, and the Texans are bringing six rushers. Gore stays in to block, so it’s six-on-six, and that is not usually a good outcome for San Francisco, but it is on this play. Smith also is good for trusting his protection, staying in the pocket and waiting for the receiver to come open. I don’t think the 49ers could execute a play like this very often, but they do an admirable job here.

San Francisco does a little wrinkle before the snap, where they’re standing as if they’re going to line up in the offset I with Smith under center, but before they’re set, Smith backs up and everyone trots out to again form the four-wide shotgun look they’ve had so much success with.

As has been the case before in the drive, the routes on either side are a mirror image of each other. Both outside receivers run an out pattern, heading upfield before breaking for the sidelines, and both slot receivers run a ‘Go.’ The Texans look to me like they’re in a Cover-3, where both corners are dropping with the receivers and one of the safeties playing over the top. The end result is three deep defenders, which is how it gets the name. What happens here is that the corners go with the outside receivers, and the safety is playing more to clean up any completions rather than prevent them. Smith also holds the safety with his eyes, looking right before coming back to the left. With the corner over with Crabtree and the safety too deep to be a factor, Morgan just has to get behind the underneath defenders, and he’s got a huge space to work. He does just that, Smith makes the necessary throw over the heads of the underneath defenders, and Morgan has plenty of room to go up and get the ball without fear. In all, it nets 23 yards, attacks another soft part of the coverage and doesn’t ask too much of the protection. This is as quick-strike as you can get with a 23-yard gain.

For the final play of the drive, San Francisco returns to the five-wide set from the 12 personnel. The play bears a strong resemblance to the Saints’ four verticals play that got their touchdown on the drive we looked at last week. The outside receiver to the left runs a quick hitch, maybe even faking a quick screen, but the other receivers all runn ‘Go’ patterns down the field. The other exception is Vernon Davis who, from the right slot, runs a little bit of a post. Much like Colston last week, Davis is matched up on the middle linebacker (in this case, DeMeco Ryans). Ryans is very good, and he stays with Davis pretty well, but Davis is faster and taller than just about any linebacker in the league. Smith, like Brees before him, draws the deep safety away from Davis with his eyes before placing the ball over Ryans’ head and into Davis’ hands.

Davis makes his catch over Ryans.

This play capped off a curious trend from this drive: there were a lot of Saints plays in here. If someone had handed me the diagrams of the plays and asked me to name the team, I would have said the Saints with confidence, with the extra lineman, and the four verticals and the five-wide from 12 personnel. It seems odd to me that two offenses so disparate in their results would be so similar in their schemes. And there is no shared branches I can see on their coaching tree. San Francisco’s offensive coordinator is Jimmy Raye, who is really old (he was the backup quarterback in the Notre Dame-Michigan State 10-10 “Game Of The Century,” which was played in 1966. Sherm Lewis thinks Jimmy Raye is old.) but does not appear to have run across Sean Payton is his many years. I told all this to Bob Tuesday morning, and he pointed out that if one’s offense was not working, a good place to go for new ideas would be tape of Saints games. This is a very interesting point that the evidence suggests is possible. If true—and it’s by no means certain that it is true—it raises a lot of questions. After less than a year on the job, is Jimmy Raye really so out of ideas already that he’s lifting his offense off of Saints tapes? What about core principles and offensive design? How do you keep those things together when installing plays you saw last week? How long does it take for an offense to feel comfortable with a play? Most of these passes were effective in part because of their simplicity, but it’s supposed to be harder than it looks, right? Then again, Crabtree played much of the game despite being on the team for only a few weeks, so what does that say about how hard all this is to learn? But if building an effective attack is as easy as watching the Saints’ tape and mimicking it, why doesn’t every team in the league do it and put up big yards? And why didn’t the 49ers do it from the beginning when Shaun Hill was in there (with Hill, they only went to shotgun on third down and in general ran much more of what you would expect from an offense as traditionally mediocre as the 49ers in the last few years)? And I suspect the fact that they were down 21 points by halftime had something to do with all of this. They would be desperate enough to try anything, though they would have had to install all this in practice at some point.

I guess an alternative explanation is that all this stuff that I think is revolutionary (play-action from heavy sets, five wide from 12, managing to get tall, athletic players matched up on linebackers, etc.) is muc more ordinary than I understood. I mean, all three teams we’ve looked at have had a little bit of that. It will be interesting to track as we go along. It certainly makes me glad I branched out to look at other teams. It’s already turning up some fascinating (to me, at least) results.

The fact they were down by 21 should also be considered in their success. The 49ers offense was working against a Texans defense that did not feel much urgency. Likely as a result, they did not blitz much or play particularly aggressively. Given the line’s performance this season and earlier in this game, I think that more frequent blitzing would have posed significant problems. Then again, these were all plays that stressd getting the ball out fairly quickly, and they did have success in their one play against the big blitz. It would be interesting to see what this offense and scheme could do against a defense playing in a more urgent situation.

Also of note is that the 49ers made no attempt to run on this drive. That’s pretty understandable given the game situation, but if the 49ers want to build on the offensive success they had here, I would like to see how they plan to mix in more running with these four-wide sets and whatnot.

And as I indicated throughout, I do think they have some concepts to build off of here. The formations make it easier for Smith to know where he’s going with the ball, and the patterns make it easy for Smith to get those passes there quickly. The spread formations make it hard to have extra blockers, but one of Smith’s supposed strengths coming out of Utah was his elusiveness. I didn’t see anything specifically on these plays to confirm or deny that, but it would be an asset in this scheme. Like I said at the top, the 49ers don’t have anyone to break big plays on a regular basis, so for them to have hope, they need to use these high-percentage plays to keep the ball moving while taking their occasional 20+ yard shot when it’s open and available quickly.

Bonus Coverage: In my research for this article, I discovered that the Houston Texans cheerleading squad features a pair of twins. I thought Bob should know, given his history with twins.

Target Distribution:

Targets – Week 7 vs. Atlanta

Table Tutorial

OK, Roy Williams fans will want to just skip over all of this data. When your QB is in the zone, and doesn’t miss on hardly any passes all day long, you don’t want to cash in on just 1 of 5 targets that come your way. Romo was perfect to everyone except 3 guys. Austin was 6 of 8 for 171. Witten was 5 of 7 for 53. And then Roy was just 1 for 5? Oh dear. This is not getting better, is it?

Season Target Distribution To Date:

Table Tutorial

Here, as we look at the season stats, Austin’s emergence looks even more scary. The WR corps have all had between 30 and 35 balls thrown at them, and Austin has caught more, done more per catch, and more overall than any of the others. Can he make a run at a 1,000 yard season? It would seem that he can. What a find. Meanwhile, 40% for Roy after 30 targets is bad. The league leaders routinely catch over 50%, and 60% is not that uncommon.

40%? Put it this way. 100 receivers in the NFL this year have 28 or more targets. 3 have fewer than the 12 catches that Roy has. Michael Clayton, TB (11 for 36, 31%), Chansi Stuckey, NYJ/Cle (11 for 32, 34%) and Chris Chambers, SD (8 for 30, 26%). And there is your entire list.

Some of the best? Hines Ward, Pit (42 for 55, 73%), Wes Welker, NE (46 for 62, 74%), and Steve Smith, Car (45 for 64, 70%).

3rd Down Target Distribution:

3RD Down Targets – Week 7 – Atlanta

Table Tutorial

Good News or Bad News? The Good news is that Romo and the Cowboys were very solid on 3rd down passing. We demonstrated last week that this is a season long negative, so to go 6-8 on 3rd down for 5 First Down conversions is very solid. Bad News? When you go 6-8, you would wish that the other 2 were not the only 2 times you pass it to your #1 WR. Roy Williams, 0-2. There is no way to sugar coat his performance this season.

3rd Down Targets – Season Totals

Table Tutorial

One of these days, I will get tired of telling everyone how money Jason Witten is. That day has not arrived yet. He is 8 for 8 on 3rd Downs, which makes you wonder what Romo was thinking the other 45 times he threw it elsewhere.

SACKS

Atlanta got to Tony Romo for 2 sacks, although his escape-ability reached legendary status right before halftime as he figured out how to get out of that amazing mess when pretty much all 4 Falcons’ pass rushers beat their man. To see Romo surrounded by ATL rushers followed by the TD was the thing that will be talked about for years if this season has a happy ending.

The 2 sacks were both caused by the Falcons dialing up a blitz at just the right time.

In the 3rd Quarter, they sent 7 when the Cowboys had just 6 blocking on a 3rd down. This left Leonard Davis and Tashard Choice with choices to make. Davis picked up a guy who Gurode already had, and Choice opted for the edge linebacker (54 Nicholas) over the blitzer through the “B” gap (28 DeCoud). Blitzing defenders are ALWAYS to be picked up from the inside-out and therefore Choice needed to go for 28 over 54, and leave Nicholas for Romo. The play was doomed to fail the second everyone realized that the Falcons sent more than the Cowboys left in, but Choice did not make the right choice. And, Romo, as Troy said, has to get the ball out of there.

Next, in the 4th Quarter, Nicholas blew up Deon Anderson in a 1-on-1 situation. It also looks like Davis is beat on the play, but he did not directly give up the sack. This was a rare man-up loss for Anderson on a drill we see 1,000 times at training camp where LBs and RBs do battle on the practice field to simulate this situation.

Table Tutorial

The Cowboys have had more successful days on offense than they had on Sunday, but when it came time to make a play, Tony Romo was absolutely up to the task. His new found favorite target, Miles Austin, has seemed to be the target that Romo has been missing for quite a while around here. Now that he has him, the offense does not rely on a running game to carry them.

A big WR who makes plays and demands coverage changes everything for the Cowboys. Hope he is not a mirage.

As well as they ran the ball against Kansas City out of the “22″, the Cowboys had no success out of that look against the Falcons (7 carries for 19 yards). Instead, the Cowboys picked there spots and ran the ball out of “13″ the best. I don’t quite understand the pattern, but there seems to be a reason in certain games when Jason Garrett prefers a 3rd TE to a FB in many of the same running situations. Email me with a theory if you have one, because I am out.

All in all, if your QB can make those plays he did on Sunday, football seems pretty easy, and strategy takes a bit of a backseat. A rare treat in 2009 for the Cowboys, indeed.

Let’s look at the Cowboys use of Personnel in their offensive snaps:

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Table Tutorial

Definition of the Personnel Groups, click here .

41 snaps from under center against the Falcons out of 59 snaps is quite remarkable. First, it says the Cowboys, despite not running the ball very well stayed out of 3rd downs and situations where they must pass the ball. Of those 41 snaps, only 5 times did they not have 2 Tight Ends on the field. In fact, I counted about 5 times where they had 2 TEs and it was Witten and John Phillips instead of Witten and Martellus Bennett. I think they like all 3 TEs when it comes to run blocking.

Despite the big day in Kansas City for the FB, Deon Anderson, there was not much work for him on Sunday as they used the fullback just 13 times out of 59 snaps (22%). They only used “21″ personnel 3 times, which is a season low for that look.

What worked best? Why the “12″ package again. For some reason, people call sports radio with sarcasm mocking the “12″ package for the Cowboys this season as if it has been some big failure. I wonder if they actually understand what is going on with it? Because, the fact is that once again they had great success with it. 12 snaps for 135 yards (11.25 yards per snap)! I think that is pretty good, right? The “12″ gave us 4 pass plays of over 20 yards – 4 to Austin – which suggests that the “12″ brings the safeties in to the center of the field, leaving the 2 WRs out wide in single coverage. And that is where Austin makes you miss and dashes for the goal-line.

Shawn, my expert statistician during this project, sent me some observations I wanted to share with you here:

Bob,

I need to watch the game again, but a few notes from the Playbook.

22 Run: 7-19 yards 2.71
13 Run: 9-44 yards 4.89

Most 12 Passes, since the Bucs game.

Falcons Game: 12 Pass: 8-116 yards 14.50
2009 Season: 12 Pass: 35-336 yards 9.60

S11 Pass: 10-41 yards 4.10
S12 Pass: 6-56 yards 9.33

Falcons game combined 12 and S12 Pass: 14-172 yards 12.29
2009 Season combined 12 and S12 Pass: 70-712 yards 10.17

2009 Season S11 Pass: 73-473 yards 6.48 and 3 interceptions

Shawn

His findings are further proof that the best passing/shotgun package has moved from “S11″ to “S12″. It is just playing to your strength. “S12″ is Bennett versus “S11″ being a 3rd WR. I think the difference is more based on the defensive coverage rather than something Martellus is doing. He just attracts different coverage and it is making the whole group more effective.

Video Breakdowns:

Thanks, Brian at DC Fanatic.com who provides the videos (and the biting commentary) for this exercise. Despite the fact that I keep asking more and more out of him, he keeps saying yes!

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The Play: Austin TD 2Q – 1/10/41 5:59 left

What Happened: This play is not only important for why it happened, but let’s also remember when it happened. This is offensive snap #15 for Dallas, and the first 14 have been pretty forgettable. 4 Drives: 2 3-and-outs, 1 red zone failure, and 1 fumble. So, to start Drive #5, the Cowboys go to “21″ personnel, a look they only had 3 times on Sunday. 2 RB, 1 TE, and 2 WR. Witten is off LT, and Williams Wide Right with Austin in the slot right.

The Falcons show 8 in the Box off this power run look from Dallas, and Dallas throws on 1st down out of “21″ which is against their tendencies. At the snap, the Falcons rush 6, and drop the LDE, and a LB into coverage on Barber when he rolls into a safe route. I cannot get a clean look at the Falcons personnel, but they certainly have to be disappointed that the Cowboys only have 2 WRs in route and Austin is running that wide open. Also, pay attention to the perfect protection, with Deon Anderson doing a nice job with the LB blitz off Left Tackle. Romo makes a perfect throw, and Austin does the rest. A 1 play drive that shows the explosiveness of the offense as they have plenty of big pass plays this season.

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The Play: Crayton TD 2Q 2/G/9 – 0:15 left

What Happened: This is not how the play was drawn up. “S11″. Without any timeouts, remember that a sack likely ends the half. Now, the Falcons are going to throw a somewhat exotic pass rush at the Cowboys and see if the Cowboys can handle it. They obviously cannot. The Falcons run a twist, with the LDT and RDE diving Left, and the LDE and RDT twisting around to the Right. Honestly, in the NFL, offensive lines see this a million times, and it would be nice if someone got their man blocked. Flozell is the first to bust, as Jonathan Babineaux #95 runs right past him and has Romo dead. After that, it is just a full out fire drill as all protection breaks. How Romo escapes is unlikely and amazing. Meanwhile, Roy Williams runs the fade to the right corner of the end zone. Barber slips out to into the middle flat. On the left, Witten and Austin run routes off eachother, and Crayton in pre-snap motion heads to the left sideline, to work the back of the end zone. The Falcons just rush 4, remember, so 7 Falcons covering 5 is still a tough find for Romo under normal circumstances. But, under this rush for him to eventually find a man is all Romo. Crayton eventually shakes loose from Chris Houston #23, and despite a total failure from the OL, this play is a success.
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The Play: Big pass to Austin 3Q 5:26 1/10/20 unbalanced line!

What Happened: “12″ Personnel, and look at what we have here. Colombo #75 breaks huddle andlines up at TE outside Adams. Witten, meanwhile, lines up next to Davis #70 at Right Tackle. This will freak out a defense a bit as it shows heavy run left. Then, in presnap, Bennett #80 motions to that same strong side, and now every LB is fighting that urge to dive right and get ready for a collision with a Barber carry to LT. Play Action now leaves Romo with a fine pocket to throw, with Austin on the left, and Williams on the right. Both are running deep patterns, and I think this shows Romo’s confidence level right now. Even though Austin is attracting the safety, and Williams appears to be in a 1-on-1 situation against press coverage, Romo still tries to fit it in to Austin rather than look Roy’s way. A perfect demonstration of how making plays gives you more opportunities to make more plays. Romo makes a perfect throw and it is a big gain, but I wonder if they asked him why he didn’t take the 1-on-1 in the film room.

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The Play:2/10/48 4:52 3Q – Felix for 9

What Happened:Now let’s look at 2 consecutive plays in the 3rd Quarter. This first one is on 2nd and 10. Last week, we showed you the Cowboys pass 68% of the time on 2nd and 8+ , but here they show “13″ personnel, with all 3 Tight Ends on the field. Bennett is lined up next to Colombo, Witten outside on the right, and Phillips, the rookie TE from Virginia, is in motion to the right to put a huge overload on the right. This is a true power run, and like last week in Kansas City, the question is asked if you can stop it. There is no mystery in what the Cowboys want to do here. Crayton is lined up as the only WR, and he tries to pull a CB and safety out of the box in case of play action. From there, the hand off to Felix gets 9 yards. Watch Kosier #63 continue his wonderful year in the running game as he gets a huge block on poor Eric Coleman #26. Witten is right in the middle of it as well, and Leonard Davis ends up on the 2nd level almost 10 yards downfield. This team can run the football at the most important time – when the opponent knows that what you want to do. This is a very good sign that we have seen almost every week so far.

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The Play: 3/1/39 4:14 3Q – Felix pitch left -

What Happened: This is the very next play. 3rd and 1. Cowboys take off a TE and put on a FB to go “22″ in short yardage. The success of this pitch to Jones, I believe, is totally based on getting the RDE (#92, Davis) to take his read off the FB. They don’t block him, so if he takes one step toward the lead blocker, then the pitch works and Felix gets the outside lane and is gone. If he stays honest, this play could be doomed. The entire OL blocks toward the center of the line as if the play is a run up the gut, and once the pitch happens, watch #82 Witten help the play get 10 more yards by making sure #28 DeCoud cannot even consider getting to Felix. Another interesting idea in the running game that works best with Felix’s skill set.

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The Play: 2/3/20 0:14 3Q – MB 3 for 13 yards with unbalanced line again.

What Happened: This is that unbalanced line again with Colombo lined up next to Adams. I only saw this twice on Sunday, and remember the 1st time they ran it was play action over the top to Austin, so the Falcons are wondering what Garrett is up to again. This time, in “12″ again, they show that they can run strong-side. Phillips is the 2nd TE and he comes in motion to the left. This play has to happen quickly, because the play calls for Leonard Davis to pull to the left. With Colombo, Adams, Kosier, and Phillips already left of center, and Davis pulling left, this means you have plenty of weight on that side, but only Witten watching the right flank. You can see at snap that Witten has no chance, so if the handoff is delayed even a second, those players will destroy the run. But, it is timed perfectly, and as they run upfield, Barber is already through the hole. Again, watch Davis on the 2nd level destroying a poor DB. You can see Colombo celebrating as Barber runs by him. There is nothing the OL enjoys more than gashing you with the run.

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Target Distribution and Sack studies will be in another entry today. Stay tuned for that.
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Past Episodes:

Week 5 – Kansas City
Week 4 – Denver
Week 3 – Carolina
Week 2 – New York Giants
Week 1 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Garrett ’08

I take you down this unlikely road to bring the conversation to Tony Romo. I think we can all agree he also once had a groove. In his first 25 or so games in the NFL, he was somewhere between amazing and unbelievable. Then, something happened where he hit adversity and we began to see the weaknesses in his game. And for the last 20 or so starts, he just has not been the same guy who seemed like he played the game with everything happening around him in slow motion. Was something wrong with him? Was something wrong with his coaching? What happened to a guy who seemed to have the NFL figured out?

Regardless, his play dropped significantly. Some of the stats were still good, but his ability to make something out of nothing started to go away. 2008 was filled with issues that seemed to cloud his head and take away his swagger.

September 2009 was not very good, either. After playing about his worst game against the Giants, he followed up with an uneven effort against the Panthers, and a flat-out lousy effort versus the Broncos. After that stretch of games, I recall being out of excuses and ideas for Romo – a guy I had such high hopes looked like he might never return to the form of 2007.

Then, Something happened in Kansas City. Something was different. I know it was the Chiefs, but in Kansas City, the game looked like Romo was in charge again. It looked like he wasn’t rattled nor confused. It suddenly all made sense for him again. Combine the day in KC with yesterday, and Romo’s numbers are 41-63, for 662 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs, and a QB Ratings of 126.6 and 10.51 YD/Att. Credit Miles Austin for much of that – 421 yards – but it is clear they are getting quality play from their QB again and that makes all of the difference in the world. Is it too soon to assume he found what he was looking for?

Is Romo back? Did they decide that the best way for Romo to play is to not be afraid to make a play? Will they continue to roll with this posture, or will they go back to trying to change him the second he makes a poor decision? We shall see. But, the throws he made yesterday were the plays he made for a long time as the Cowboys QB – and then, everything changed. If you are a Cowboys fan, I think the last 2 games provide you the reason for optimism that you have been looking for. As Troy Aikman said yesterday, if Romo plays well, the Cowboys can play with anyone in the NFL.

Did he get his groove back?

In other news, the Cowboys beat a good team yesterday. I have already heard the sports-talk callers attempt to paint the Falcons as a team that “is not very good”. I disagree with a great degree of exclamation. The Falcons are a good team, and they will win plenty of games this year. This is a nice win, and it is a rare treat where it seemed like all phases of the Cowboys game were clicking properly.

Matt Ryan has looked composed all season long, getting comparisons to QBs like Tom Brady and Troy Aikman for his ability to see the field and make the right throws. He also had not been sacked since Week 1, and you will find that every single QB is remarkably worse when he is continuously hit. He was sacked 4 times, including 2 more for Mr Ware, and you saw that suddenly playing QB was not as easy when you have to pick yourself up from the field over and over again.

Pressure from your defensive line is the key to everything you do defensively in the NFL, and with the Cowboys unleashing some interesting blitzes at times they got legitimate edge rush pressure throughout. When that happens, the secondary looks better, the linebackers look better, the entire defense looks better – and gets turnovers! And as we have written here time and time again, if you can manufacture takeaways, then all of the sudden, you set your offense up with positive field position. They started their 11 possessions at an average of the 35 yard line, which is not really that amazing, but given the fact that the Cowboys never get the ball in that good of a spot, it is a step in the right direction.

The most solid effort of the season for the Cowboys was played yesterday in a very big spot. As we said, if they lost, they were on their way to 8-8. With a win, all of their hopes are still within reach. And, a nice spot now with the head-to-head tiebreaker with Atlanta, too. In fact, with the Giants loss, the Cowboys are even in the win column with the leaders of the NFC East. Yesterday could prove to be a massive launch point for the next stretch of games.

Thoughts and Notes about the big win in Arlington:

* One of the most under-discussed element of a RB’s responsibility list is his ability to pick up a blitz and do what needs to be done – keep your QB clean. Well, yesterday, the Cowboys got that fixed as well. For several weeks we have seen Felix Jones and Tashard Choice struggle at times picking up bigger LBs or DBs and keeping them off Romo. I thought in the Atlanta game we saw a collective effort that was remarkable. At one point, Felix Jones had Chevis Jackson lifted right off the ground on a blitz. Well done. It won’t get you impressive stats, but it will get you more playing time when you demonstrate you are not a liability in this very important role.

* The job the defense did yesterday is extra impressive when you consider how great the Falcons looked on their opening drive. 16 plays/80 yards/8:34 to start the game gave everyone watching from a Dallas perspective a nice upset stomach. Atlanta rolled down the field and then punched it in to take a 7-0 lead, and after that the Falcons spent the rest of the half with nothing to show. Again, after Halftime, Atlanta drove the length of the field to score on the first drive and did not score again until garbage time. The stats for the defense include 4 sacks, 2 Interceptions, 1 fumble, and 5 “3-and-out” drives. That is controlling a good offense. I would think in Atlanta this morning, there are questions being asked of that offensive personnel.

* Mike Jenkins played his best game as a Cowboy. I will readily admit that my ideas that Orlando Scandrick is a better option needs to be retracted. Scandrick will compete, but now that Jenkins seems to understand where to stand and what to do a bit better, there is no comparison of their raw abilities. Jenkins looks the part of a top-tier CB in making. We shall see if he fully develops, but I think we have to be pretty pleased with his ’09 for the most part.

* Miles Austin’s 421 in the last 2 weeks trails just 3 players since the NFL-AFL merger for most yards in 2 weeks. Chad Ochocinco had 450 in 2006, John Taylor had 448 in 1989, and Jerry Rice had 442 in 1995. And that is it.

* What is not so great about that 421 for Austin is that Roy Williams has 428 yards TOTAL since becoming a highly compensated Cowboys WR 16 games ago. I hope he is still hurt, because if that was a healthy Roy looking like he had a case of “alligator arms” on that first target in the 1st Quarter, he shouldn’t be out there. I understand that the job calls for a bit of self-preservation on occasion, but Roy needs to be making plays in a very urgent manner these days. And yesterday did not help his standing with the Cowboys one bit. In fact, I actually heard Deion Sanders claim that the Cowboys benched the wrong guy last week, and that Roy should be the 3rd until he starts doing something. And you know something, it doesn’t seem that crazy anymore. And this business that he needs to be used more looks like nonsense if you see the numbers. He may only have 31 catches as in Dallas, but know that he has been targeted 73 times. That 42% close rate on targets is not even close to impressive. As we always say to the WRs, make a play.

* I guess the sun will be an issue at the new stadium. Who would have thought windows on the end of your stadium could be a problem when the sun begins to go down in the west?

* When Marcus Spears overpowered Harvey Dahl at the line and then smashed Matt Ryan to the turf for his 1st Quarter sack, I assume that is what everyone had in mind in the draft room in 2005 when they picked him in the 1st Round out of LSU. Despite being a disappointment for his career so far, I think he is playing some of his best football in ’09, and based on the Chris Canty contract of last spring, I assume that Spears is about to make a ton of money as a free agent.

* Terrence Newman had a very uneven day, but in the end, Roddy White did not kill the Cowboys yesterday. Playing well for a CB means you got it mostly right, and you weren’t burned too often. Overall, he was decent, with his best moments happening in the 4th Quarter. That is better than the alternative.

* Did you see the Cowboys run 2 plays with an unbalanced line yesterday? Both in the 3rd Quarter, Mark Colombo was outside Flozell Adams at Left Tackle, leaving only Jason Witten and Leonard Davis on the right of the ball at snap. Both plays were a huge success in a 32 yard pass to Austin, and a 13 yard run for Marion Barber, his biggest run of the day.

* Who leads the NFL in touchbacks? Why, David Buehler of course, with 13 (actually, Stephen Gostkowski also has 13 for New England, but they have played 1 more game). Add to that the Patrick Crayton punt return for a Touchdown to ice the game and we may be able to consider referencing the special teams as something that resembles special.

* I think I have gone long enough without mentioning the Romo Touchdown pass at the end of the half to Patrick Crayton. You know, the Cowboys had no timeouts left, and many of you have pointed out that if Romo is sacked during that absurd play that the half ends, and the Cowboys have wasted a scoring opportunity in the worst fashion possible – carelessness. Romo made one of the most remarkable plays you will ever see a QB make, but in order to do so, he had to flirt with disaster. Just like the play he pulled out of his hat in Denver on 4th and 3 when Sam Hurd had the catch and run for 53 yards, there is no way you plan things like that. That is just that QB’s instinctive ability to make something up as he goes. And it worked. And you loved it. But, what if it didn’t work? Would you still love the effort? See, that is the definition of the pressure a QB for the Cowboys lives with. In each play, he is asked to weigh the possibility of success with the consequences of failure – while guys are trying to break his neck. And if, as a Dallas fan, all you want is the successes without any of the failures, you may ask the impossible. I guess my point here is that if you appreciate and enjoy the miracle play he pulled out yesterday and the play in Denver and the countless other absurd plays (the scramble against the Rams ’07, the TD to Tony Curtis without seeing him at the Meadowlands ’07, the crazy TD against the Steelers ’08, etc) then you have to be willing to take some of the bad that goes with it. My advice is to appreciate having a QB that can pull rabbits out of hats rather than trying to change him into Trent Dilfer. But, then again, it is easy to say that the morning after he has a QB rating of 140.

* Keith Brooking is turning into my hero. I would be most interested in hearing the Falcons brass explain what he wasn’t doing there. Of course, the change of scenary theory may be in play, too.

Nice Win, and it opens up more opportunities down the road. Seattle is next in 6 days, and they are coming off a bye, so let’s make sure you consume yourself with them before you start pondering the date in Philadelphia in 13 days. 4-2, and still right in the mix.

And then there was this one; the first ever Sunday Afternoon game played at the Brand New Death Star against last year’s Cinderella playoff story, the Atlanta Falcons.

I wrote about their franchise in pretty elaborate detail yesterday , so check that out if you want to see more about the impressive building of this team. But, today, let us visit about what this all means and how the Cowboys can seize a big opportunity to make a move in the NFC Playoff picture.

First, let’s remember that there is no more powerful tie-breaker in football than the head-to-head tiebreaker. Assuming that the Giants and Saints win both of these divisions (which is surely not a lock, but it is where the smart money is at this juncture) then that leaves 2 Wildcards for the Falcons, Eagles, Cowboys, Bears, Packers, and either the Cardinals or 49ers as it currently shakes out. I know it is early, but bear with me. That is 2 spots for 6 teams. You must go to Philadelphia and Green Bay later in November, so my best advice is to own this head-to-head tiebreaker here and now. You would jump past Atlanta and be in a fine spot as the calendar turns to November.

Second, The Cowboys are on long rest. The Falcons had to survive a war with the Bears on Sunday night. I know we cannot read too much into bye week advantages, travel advantages, and sore bodies versus fitness, but all of them?

Third, can we all agree the Cowboys are long overdue for a win they can hang their hat on? This would be a win that I doubt anyone would take a shot at. We cannot say that about the first 3 wins versus Tampa, Carolina, and Kansas City. The mental edge of a big win on Sunday would go a long way.

Now, about the Falcons. I would call them a solid team. Doesn’t sound to sexy to say that, but what I mean by that is simple; They are well prepared. They are organized. They don’t beat themselves. They don’t give games away. They appear to have very little “knucklehead” content on their sideline. You can beat them, but you will be required to earn it. They won’t hand you the ball and they won’t kill themselves with penalties. In fact, you could make the case that all they did in their win against Chicago was wait for the Bears to give them the game. It is a fine art, but the Falcons appear to do it quite a bit.

They are 3-0 at the Georgia Dome, and 1-1 away. Those two road games were drastically different – as they were pounded by the Patriots in New England in a game that appeared a bit big for them to handle. Then, they go to Candlestick to play the 49ers after San Francisco was only a Brett Favre miracle from 4-0 and beat the Niners like a drum. I mean they hammered them with amazing ease to a point that the game was completely decided at the half, at 35-10.

Well-coached and well-stocked with top end talent in many of the right spots, this represents a true challenge to the Cowboys and a great chance to launch out of the bye week with great confidence and momentum. A win would be just what this fragile team needs.

ON OFFENSE:

Tony Romo will have all of his toys back, it would appear, on Sunday. Roy Williams has missed 1 game, Marion Barber hasn’t been right in weeks, and Felix Jones has been gone since Carolina. Also, they have Miles Austin in the starting group to hopefully attract some safety support and make things easier on Jason Witten down the middle of the field.

The object of the game now – after a week for Jason Garrett to examine what has worked and what has not from the first five games – is to go back to the 2 TE rushing attack and keep cranking up that diesel. Pass as a compliment, but you must not toss the ball around as a first priority. This team doesn’t have enough match-up issues at WR for it to be done any other way in my opinion. Whether Garrett agrees has yet to be determined.

For Atlanta, only 8 teams in the NFL allow more yards per game than the Falcons do (359.2). Those 8 teams could all be in the debate for the worst 8 teams in the NFL. So, how are the Falcons still amongst the heavyweight contenders in the NFC? Easy. All of those yards don’t mean a thing if you don’t allow points. Atlanta has allowed 15.4 points per game. That is 3rd best in the NFL. The only 2 teams to allow fewer points this season? 6-0 Denver and 5-0 Indianapolis.

So what is the Atlanta Defense? And what is the difference between their defense and the Dallas D that gives up 2 fewer yards per game? Takeaways, Silly. Atlanta has taken the ball away 12 times in 5 games. Dallas has taken the ball away from its opponent 4 times in 5 games. 8 more turnovers generated saves points and gets field position for their offense. Football is sure easy when you play that way.

As I said yesterday, they are led by their two “Box” linebackers, Curis Lofton and Mike Peterson. Both fly around well, and Peterson will come on the inside blitz when you lose track of him. Beyond that, the pass rush is average, and the secondary is nothing better than “opportunistic”.

OFFENSIVE OBJECTIVES:

1) – Be Physical with that Play Calling – Last week, I wrote about the excellence in the “12″ and “22″ packages . This week, We showed how poorly the Cowboys are in their 3rd Down package with Shotgun and 3 WRs. The Cowboys have to do two things: 1) Be mindful of what they do well and what they do not do well. And 2) Stay out of Down and Distance scenarios that force them into these bad spots where they have no choice but to roll the bones on 3rd and Long. When you can run the ball at will, and when you are playing a team that is not big on the defensive line, you read the recipe for a physical, dominating offensive game plan. I hope Jason Garrett sees this.

2) – Protect the Edge Pass Rush – Everyone knows John Abraham can rush the passer. To me, he looks like the prototypical speed pass rusher with the negatives that go with it – it seems you can run right at him. I think the Falcons know that as it is not uncommon for him to be rotated out periodically. Nevertheless, he likes to lower the left shoulder and turn the corner low and quick. Obviously, this is Flozell’s weak spot. Certainly a challenge on the blindside. On the edge is another guy, who until I watched several Falcons games this week I had never heard of – Kroy Biermann, #71. This DE is another interesting high-motor pass rusher who shows up all over the place. I like what I see from him, and I am sure the Cowboys are looking for him on either edge.

3) – WRs must make plays – I hate to jump on top of the Roy Williams pile, but it would sure seem that these next few games will determine what he will be with the Dallas Cowboys. If he continues to under-achieve and pace himself for a 600-800 yard season, then the Cowboys will likely spend the off-season looking once again to find a lead dog in this group. He must make people guard him. He must make plays. He must be the #1 the Cowboys need him to be. Sadly, I am not sure he has the mentality for this job, and he may not have the ability to dominate a game either. His 28th birthday is coming, so it is fair to ask if this is what he is. If that is the case, then they better hope Miles Austin has more in his bag like he showed in KC. You can say it was poor tackling by the Chiefs, but that is the point: Make the other DBs look like poor tacklers once in a while, Roy.

4) – Stop Committing Penalties – Things are sabotaging this offense. By yardage and yards per play alone, this offense has the looks of a power. In fact, they are 1st in the NFL in a few of these yards stats. But, that doesn’t mean a thing if they don’t turn into points. Now, the Cowboys do not commit the most penalties in the NFL. In fact, the 40 that have been called and 37 that have been accepted are not near the league leaders (BUF: 61/52), but the Cowboys seem to have the market cornered in offensive penalties that kill drives. They consistently have a pre-snap killer that takes 2nd and 10 into 2nd and 15, and the Cowboys do not get out of that mess very well anymore. Good teams seldom beat themselves. Let the Cowboys prove they are a good team by getting the false starts, the illegal formations, and the illegal motion penalties under control.

ON DEFENSE:

Of the two units on the Cowboys, there is no question going in which one is being doubted. Most do not expect the Dallas Defense to have many answers for this dangerous Atlanta Offense. What makes the Falcons so impressive now is obviously what a premier WR and a premier TE can do to an opponent. Last year, it was making the defense choose between keying on Roddy White or Michael Turner. Now, Turner fades into the background a bit, and the initial choice is White on the outside vs Gonzalez in the middle.

The Cowboys have faced the following starting Tight Ends so far this season: Kellen Winslow, Kevin Boss, Jeff King, Tony Scheffler, and Sean Ryan. Now, they enter a string of games where they face Tony Gonzalez, John Carlson, Brent Celek, Donald Lee, and Chris Cooley. It would seem that this defines a dramatic step up at a position that generally gives the Cowboys LBs and Safeties fits. How Gerald Sensabaugh, Bradie James, and friends defend the middle will likely decide this game. If they are easily exploited, I have a hard time figuring out how they get stops at crucial times.

DEFENSIVE OBJECTIVES:

1) – Pressure, Pressure, Pressure – Matt Ryan is a young QB, but he is also one who is 15-6 in his 21 NFL Regular Season Starts. He has a wonderful awareness and a calm that reminds you a bit of Tom Brady. He seems to see the field well and understand his offense as well as you could hope a Young QB could. The entire Atlanta offense is based on getting the ball out quick and not letting Ryan get hit. Miami sacked him twice in week 1, and since then, he has not been sacked once. The Panthers, Patriots, 49ers, and Bears all were shutout of the sack pursuit. Surely, this cannot continue, right? The entire Atlanta OL wears a beard, and although that may not have anything to do with this point, I felt you needed to know that. The Cowboys need to get sacks. The way to get this is to blitz from the inside. When you do that, you occupy the RB in blitz pick-up, and they cannot then chip on Ware on the edge. If Ware is un-chipped, then he is straight up against the young and talented Sam Baker. This is where the Cowboys get to Matt Ryan. It all starts with rolling the bones a bit on a blitz and making Ryan think twice.

2) – Continue to plug the run up – Statistically, the Cowboys are not considered among the best run stopping teams in the NFL. But, in my estimation, in the last 4 games, the Cowboys have done a great job of making sure teams would get frustrated by their running games and just decide to do something else. The Cowboys are stout against the run. That will serve them well as the season continues, so don’t let Michael Turner get going. Jerious Norwood will not play, so it will be up to a banged up Turner, and seldom used Jason Snelling to carry the mail on Sunday. The Cowboys need to be waiting with a sack of hammers.

3) – Figure out the Roddy White/Tony Gonzalez overload – This is how the Atlanta offense works. Figure out what the defense is doing with Gonzalez, and react. Sometimes it is based on the idea that if he draws the safety in the middle, that leaves Roddy White in 1-on-1. Sometimes it is based on if the ILBs go with Gonzalez, then they play a cat-and-mouse play action game with Michael Turner running the ball right where Gonzalez vacated. But, make no mistake, Matt Ryan and Mike Mularkey take their cues from you. So, it will require some varied looks and the type of complicated scheme that once had us remarking how great a defensive mind Wade Phillips was. Oh, and one other thing. Roddy White is the real deal. He maybe the most underrated premier receiver in the league. Twice in the last two weeks, they have thrown a 8 yard curl to him, and he breaks one tackle and is gone for a long Touchdown (just like Miles Austin’s day in KC – except he has done it for several years). This idea of Newman locking him down seems very optimistic, but whoever is there must bring him down.

4) – Don’t be afraid to mix in the occasional takeaway – This defense has not done the offense favors hardly at all. In fact, aside from Terrence Newman’s interception against Carolina and Bradie James Fumble Recovery at Denver, you can safely say that in 300+ minutes this season, the Defense hasn’t done anything to aid in offense. The Cowboys have the 30th best starting field position in football. They start each possession on average, 9 yards behind the New York Giants. When you consider that there are roughly 12 offensive series per game, that means the Giants get a 108 yard head start on the Cowboys every Sunday. Allen Rossum can cut into that some with better returns, but the only way to close that gap significantly is to get some help from the turnover.

SUMMARY:This result gives me great pause. If the game was in Atlanta, I would take the Falcons. Since the game is here, I am going to assume the Cowboys are pouring their best effort into it, and coming off the bye they are poised to perform. If they win this game, you can dream and see this set of 6 games (Atl, Sea, @Phil, @GB, Wash, Oak) as a reasonable stretch where a split on the road and a sweep at home sticks you at 8-3 heading into the final push. Optimistic, but not impossible – provided you do what you need to do on Sunday.

I have honestly no idea what Cowboys team comes out on Sunday. But, I think they know that a loss here would really, really cripple their ability to keep a brave face.

Dallas 26, Atlanta 24 (Yes, I have picked the Cowboys all 6 games. I know)

Past Issues:

Kansas City Game Plan

Denver Game Plan

Carolina Game Plan

Giants Game Plan

Tampa Bay Game Plan

Some teams are not as good as you think they should be based on their level of talent. And other teams are actually better than you think they should be because they play well as a team. They are coached well. They seldom beat themselves, and they just play football the way it was meant to be played. I suggest to you that one of those teams could very well be the 2009 Atlanta Falcons.

HOW THEY GOT HERE:

In 2001, the Chargers held the #1 pick in the draft. The Falcons, who picked #5, rolled the dice and traded that pick (LaDanian Tomlinson), a 3rd ’01 (Tay Cody), a 2nd ’02 (Reche Caldwell), and Tim Dwight for the rights to get Michael Vick, the QB who would change the game, from Virginia Tech. At 22, he became the first visiting QB to ever win a playoff game at Lambeau Field. At 24, he led the Falcons to the 2004 NFC Championship Game before losing to the Philadelphia Eagles. And at 26, he finished his final season as the Falcons franchise, and was convicted of multiple felonies and reported to prison.

In 2007, Atlanta tried to carry on without Vick, with Joey Harrington and new coach Bobby Petrino. Petrino, left his post as the HC at Louisville, and was finally ready to chase his dream of being an NFL head man. 13 games later, the Falcons were a total mess, and Petrino pretty much assured that he would never be a head coach again in the pros by leaving the team to take the Arkansas job with 3 games left in the season. He reportedly told the team that he was leaving them by posting a note in the lockerroom. It was rock bottom for the Falcons franchise with their star QB in prison, and its Head Coach abandoning ship and taking a good-not-great job in the SEC.

Arthur Blank, the popular owner of the Falcons, then had to figure out how to restore the Falcons to relevant in 2008. This was not an easy task. First, he hired the Patriots’ Director of College Scouting (Really) Thomas Dimitroff. This did not excite too many people. Then, he needed a head coach. But, nobody wanted the job (including our Jason Garrett). So he ended up hiring a man that most of us had never really heard of. He hired Jacksonville’s Defensive Coordinator, Mike Smith . Hmmm. Nobody knew what to make of that, except that he took a job that nobody would take.

In hiring Smith, Falcons owner Arthur Blank ended a stretch of nearly six weeks without a full-time coach.

Outgoing GM Rich McKay, who was retained as team president, helped Blank interview many candidates. Some of the more notable names, former Pittsburgh coach Bill Cowher, Southern Cal’s Pete Carroll, Dallas assistants Jason Garrett and Tony Sparano and Indianapolis assistant head coach Jim Caldwell, withdrew from consideration.

Bill Parcells considered taking charge in a non-coaching role that would oversee football operations before spurning Blank and joining Miami.

The only candidate, other than Smith, to interview twice was Baltimore defensive coordinator Rex Ryan. Leslie Frazier, Minnesota’s defensive coordinator, also met with the Falcons.

So, with largely anonymous duo of Dimitroff and Smith, the 2008 Falcons set off to rebuild this team that was thought of as a several year project. First, as soon as Free Agency opened in 2008, they threw a nice amount of cash in the direction of Tomlinson’s back-up, Michael Turner:

Michael Turner, who has been the Chargers’ insurance policy for LaDainian Tomlinson, agreed to join the Falcons on Sunday. A source told ESPN.com’s Michael Smith that Turner agreed to a six-year contract believed to be worth $34.5 million, with approximately $15 million guaranteed. Turner (5-foot-10, 237 pounds) had 228 carries for 1,257 yards and six touchdowns in four seasons with San Diego.

In the 2008 NFL Draft , there was some concern as to why Matt Ryan threw 19 interceptions his senior year at Boston College. This led Miami (Jake Long) and St Louis (Chris Long) to look elsewhere and Atlanta ran to the podium to draft their franchise QB to be. A month later, he signed a crazy $72 million dollar deal (nearly $35 guaranteed) that made him the 4th highest paid player in the sport.

We will never know what the Falcons would have done if Ryan was gone at #3. Only one other QB went in that 1st Round (Joe Flacco at #18), and they didn’t need the other marquee rookie in the draft at that point (Darren McFadden) since they just signed Turner. They didn’t need a player. They needed someone to help them get back into the hearts of their fans. Ryan was almost too perfect to believe.

At first, the idea in 2008 was to let Chris Redman start until Matt Ryan was ready. Ryan was ready for Game #1 against Detroit. And, as the fairy tale continued, his first professional throw was a 56 yard TD to Michael Jenkins. The team would have phenomenal success and one year after hitting rock bottom, they finished 11-5 and made the playoffs.

Then, the big move of the off-season ’09 was made by the Falcons two days before the draft. They added the most prolific Tight End in the history of Pro Football:

The Atlanta Falcons boosted their hopes for another trip to the playoffs by acquiring tight end Tony Gonzalez from the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday for a draft pick next year.

The Falcons will send a second-round pick in 2010 to Kansas City in exchange for Gonzalez, the only tight end in NFL history selected to 10 Pro Bowls.

Gonzalez caught 96 passes for 1,058 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2008. He owns NFL career records for tight ends with 916 receptions, 10,940 yards receiving, 76 TDs receiving and 26 100-yard receiving games.

That’s right. They added him without giving up anything from their 2009 assets. A pick in 2010. What a steal. Of course, Gonzalez was ranked by NFP as one of the “Blue” players on Atlanta :

BLUE CHIP: RB, Turner; TE, Gonzalez; WR, R. White; DE, Abraham.
ALMOST BLUE: QB, Ryan.

As you can see, their best players are at all the right spots. QB, RB, WR, TE, and a pass rushing DE. You might want a LT, too, but those are pretty close to the 5 spots you would want “Blue” players. And, Rick Gosselin wrote about their 1st Round pick at Left Tackle , Sam Baker from USC.

Another key addition in the spring was LB Mike Peterson. Peterson was there solution when Keith Brooking went to Dallas . Both Dallas and Atlanta are happy with this new addition to their LB Groups.

Peterson 32, will sign a two-year contract worth approximately $6.5 million, league sources confirmed. Peterson visited with team officials and coaches on Monday and Tuesday.

The contract reunites Peterson, a 10-year veteran, with Atlanta coach Mike Smith, who served as Peterson’s defensive coordinator with the Jacksonville Jaguars. It also provides the Falcons a versatile veteran, who should compete for one of the outside linebacker spots.

“I had the pleasure of coaching Mike for five seasons in Jacksonville,” Smith said. “He is a passionate player who brings a great deal of intensity to the game.”

I guess I am saying that they have built this team about as well as you could in this amount of time. I think most people around the league look at the Falcons as a team that is now built to be good for quite a while. A remarkable story of a franchise turnaround that should inspire any forlorn organization around the league.

WHERE THEY ARE:

The Falcons roll in here at 4-1, and amongst the most impressive of the teams that have suffered defeats in 2009.

They aren’t perfect, in fact we must all be careful not to over-rate their offense. Despite the quality of the names at the key spots, and an offensive line that has not allowed a QB Sack since Week #1, that unit has frustrated its fan base with 3 games of less than 300 yards total offense. That is really a shocking number as the Dolphins, Patriots, and Bears had no trouble slowing down the Falcons attack.

Their attack is dependent on the running game, and the running game is dependent on a nameless offensive line establishing their dominance:

If we can put the Matt Ryan-swoon-over-the-NFL tour aside for just a moment: Football is still about knocking people down. That’s never going to change. You know what the Falcons are doing, even if it’s seldom noticed? Knocking people down. They owned the San Francisco game on both lines of scrimmage. If you own the line, you own the game.

The Falcons have gifts at every key offensive position: quarterback (Ryan), wide receiver (Roddy White), running back (Michael Turner), tight end (Tony Gonzalez). But every gift will tell you it doesn’t work if someone on the other team isn’t getting bruised up front. This team’s success will be dictated the same way as every team: by how many opponents get smacked in the mouth.

The offense is coordinated by Mike Mularkey, who is best known as the OC for Pittsburgh and a rather forgettable effort as HC at Buffalo in ’04-’05. From all I have seen this season, there offense looks as well coordinated as just about any team in the NFL. They run a ton of various bootleg and play action fakes that give pause to the LBs all game long. They also stress the safeties with Tony Gonzalez all game long. He is a match-up nightmare, and the Falcons run a scheme that makes you make choices. Sometimes, they deploy Gonzalez in the slot alongside Roddy White. This puts 2 of them against either 2 CBs and a S, or a LB, CB, and S. Either way, without fail, whoever gets the double team is a decoy, and whoever is left in single coverage gets the ball. This is done all day long. And both White and Gonzalez seem to easily defeat single coverage.

The other thing they do is line Gonzalez up tight to the tackle. In this scenario, he either stays in to help run block with reasonable effectiveness, or he clears out a LB and Safety by running either to the sideline or down the seam. Again, if only 1 goes with him, he gets the ball, if 2 go, they dump it off behind him to the back. The entire offense is based on how you choose to defend Gonzalez. We will go over the Cowboys options more tomorrow.

One quick glance at the Atlanta schedule says that now is where we find out what they are going to be all about. At 4-1, four of the next 5 are on the road:

@ Dallas
@ New Orleans
Washington
@ Carolina
@ New York Giants

After that, a pretty easy home stretch. Home and home with the Bucs, a road game at the Jets, and 3 more home dates with the Eagles, Saints, and Bills. Right now, it is tough to see the Saints backing up, but to me it is equally tough to see the Falcons not grabbing one of the two NFC Wildcards.

The defense of the Falcons is where most teams think they can do some damage. Jake Delhomme, Tom Brady, and Jay Cutler all passed for over 275 yards against Atlanta. They have a few players you must account for, John Abraham is a edge pass rusher who can get around the corner on tackles if left in 1-on-1. Otherwise, the DL has Jonathan Babineaux, and 3rd down pass rush specialist Kroy Biermann who jump off the screen from time to time. Peterson and young Curtis Lofton fly around the defense and make plays, and they have one solid corner in former 2nd Rounder Chris Houston, although he frustrates his fan base with the occasional poor play.

Two injuries have bothered this defense, with Peria Jerry, their 1st round DT from Mississippi, was lost for the year after week 2, and Brian Williams, the veteran CB, blew his knee on Sunday Night versus the Bears and is gone for the year, too.

This should stress the CB depth significantly, and with 2 games with the Saints left, that is not a good piece of news. Brent Grimes, Houston, Tye Hill, and Chevis Jackson will try to hold the fort.

SOME ADDITIONAL READING:

Todd Archer on “getting to Matt Ryan”

Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan just does not take sacks. So far this year he has been sacked only twice in 156 pass attempts.

After watching the Falcons-Bears game again, the reason is simple: he does not do many seven-step drops, he will not hold on to the ball, coordinator Mike Mularkey does a good job of getting him outside the pocket.

By my unofficial count, Ryan took only four seven-step drops against Chicago and his interception came on the last one. They like to work him out of the shotgun too (12 times). I was interested to see an NBC stat that had Ryan with a 129.8 passer rating when defenses bring five or more rushers, but the Bears had success bringing five-, six- and seven-man pressure on him.

“The main thing with him he he doesn’t get sacked,” linebacker DeMarcus Ware said. “He doesn’t hold the ball. We have to get pressure on him because he will throw the ball away. That’s one thing he’ll do. He’ll throw it out of bounds. We’re not looking at how many sacks we get but how much pressure we can get on him so he throws it away.”

Falcons Defense Gets Most out of Least :

Which brings us to the Falcons’ defense. On Monday, the team announced what most feared Sunday night: Cornerback Brian Williams is out for the season with a knee injury. That makes two starters lost in five games — rookie defensive tackle Peria Jerry being the other — from a defense that wasn’t all that great to begin with.

No problem. The Falcons should be able to find somebody else in that box of hubcaps and Lego blocks in the corner.

Hasn’t that kind of been the story for the past year and a half? Even if the defense isn’t comprised solely of spare parts, it’s not a depth chart that instills fear in opposing offenses. But consider these incongruent results:

♦ The defense ranks 23rd in the NFL in yards allowed (359.2 per game) but third in points (15.4) and touchdowns (eight) allowed.

♦ The defense has totaled only 10 sacks, which also ranks 23rd. Pressure creates mayhem. No pressure, no mayhem, no sacks. But how does one explain five interceptions (10th in the NFL), 10 forced fumbles (second only to New England’s 11), seven fumble recoveries (fourth) and 12 total takeaways (tied for fourth)?

The overwhelming perception is that Smith and defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder are doing this with smoke and mirrors. Smith smiled when asked about that. But he didn’t exactly dismiss the notion.

“We’re doing it with players,” he said Monday. “You know, every roster has strengths and weaknesses. The thing I say about our guys is they play passionate football. They play hard.”

And then this: “We’re very resilient.”

Defense isn’t about stopping a team from driving. It’s about stopping a team from scoring. The Falcons have done that. What’s more important: aesthetics or the bottom line? Ask the Chicago Bears. They had seven offensive plays of 21 or more yards Sunday night. But they came away empty — not even a field goal — on three red zone possessions to the Falcons’ 12- (interception), one- (fumble) and the 10-yard line (downs).

It’s not how defensive coaches design it. There is luck involved. Somewhere in a luxury suite, owner Arthur Blank probably was sacrificing a chicken. But it’s working.

Smith discounts the significance of the Falcons’ skinny sack total, saying: “You’ve got to get the quarterback moving. That’s the one thing we’ve done, especially the last two games, is get the quarterback out from where he feels comfortable. Sacks sometimes is an overrated statistic. It’s a matter of affecting the quarterback. That leads to ball-disruptions — a tipped pass or something. We had seven or eight of those [Sunday] night.”

Thomas DeCoud had two interceptions Sunday. Jonathan Babineaux and Curtis Lofton each forced fumbles. Mike Peterson: two tackles for losses and a pass breakup. Defensive end Jamaal Anderson, generally considered a draft bust, sometimes drops into coverage now.

2008 Draft Class looks great from Dimitroff/Smith :

Here’s another feather in the cap for Atlanta general manager Thomas Dimitroff.

Second-year safety Thomas DeCoud has been named the NFC Defensive Player of the Week after making his first two career interceptions against Chicago on Sunday night. That’s further proof that Dimitroff’s 2008 draft class (his first) continues to shape up as a great one.

DeCoud didn’t do much as a rookie, but he claimed a starting role over William Moore, who the Falcons drafted this year, during training camp. DeCoud has shown steady improvement each week and now has a solid lock on the job.

He’s joined fellow 2008 picks Matt Ryan, Sam Baker and Curtis Lofton in the starting lineup. Defensive end Kroy Biermann also has taken on an increased role this season after showing some promise as a rookie as the Falcons have moved defensive end Jamaal Anderson to defensive tackle. Cornerback Chevis Jackson also showed some flashes last season, but has been quiet so far this year. That could change soon with cornerback Brian Williams going out for the season with an injury. Jackson might step into the lineup as a starter or nickel back.

The Falcons also got good production from receiver/return man Harry Douglas as a rookie, but he’s sidelined with an injury this season.

Jerious Norwood is not likely to join his team Sunday

Running back Jerious Norwood, who suffered a right hip flexor against the Chicago Bears on Sunday, said on Wednesday he doesn’t expect to play this week against the Dallas Cowboys.

He could be out “more than a couple weeks,” Norwood said.

Norwood is the Falcons’ backup running back behind Michael Turner. With the running game stuck in first gear against Chicago, Norwood came off the bench to give them a little spark before going down.

He doesn’t remember the play that he was hurt on and has never had a hip flexor injury before.

It’s been a rough season for Norwood, who’s in a contract year. He’s also suffered two concussions and a knee injury.

“It hasn’t been my year,” Norwood said.

The Falcons are thin at the running back position with Norwood’s injury and fullback Ovie Mughelli’s calf injury. Mughelli didn’t play last week against Chicago.

With the team down to three healthy running backs — Turner, Jason Snelling and Verron Haynes — former Florida State running back Antone Smith was signed to the practice squad.

TOMORROW: Game Plan for the Cowboys vs the Falcons.

I want to show you the results of a study or two we did during the bye week about the Cowboys offense. Hopefully, by now, you have some interest in our findings every Tuesday during the Season with our various “Football 301″ studies. Well, this week, and then the week after Thanksgiving will allow us a day or two to catch our breath and look at the bigger picture.

Here are two things we wanted to look at:

1) – Tendancies of the Cowboys offense. Every week, we look at the raw numbers of the personnel packages , but what do they like to do in certain situations? If you are a Defensive Coordinator who is preparing to play the Dallas Cowboys, you would have all of these stats on a chart, so that during the week, you learn what Jason Garrett does and when he does it.

1st and 10 is the most base of plays. There are no down and distance considerations at all. In these spots, Garrrett chooses to run 57% of the time. If you are interested, the NFL runs 52% of the time on 1st and 10. But, then what? That was the question of our study:

What do the Cowboys like to do on 2nd Down? They Run 36.4% of the time.

Table Tutorial

Let’s move to the all-important 3rd Down – where they run 23.3% of the time:

Table Tutorial

I understand you are looking at plenty of numbers here, but the things that jump out at me initially is how bad this team is on 3rd down. Also, how bad they are on 2nd or 3rd down and more than 8. The Cowboys have run 55 pass plays on 2nd or 3rd and 8+ and have converted 12 times! 12-55 in those situations is not what you would expect of a dynamic offense. 21.8% means that most of the time, 2nd and long then becomes 3rd and long. And 3rd and long becomes a punt. This is why Roy Williams and the WRs must be better in getting in sync with Tony Romo.

If it stays like it is, I think Garrett must consider running on 2nd and long. This, gives you a chance to set up a 3rd and short or medium where opposing blitzes should be much less likely.

What used to be a real weapon for this team has now turned into a real weakness. There was a time in 2007 that the Cowboys were nothing short of amazing on 3rd down. Now, 3rd and 8+ they are 26th in the NFL. 3rd and 10+ they are 29th in the NFL! 3 teams have converted fewer times on 3rd and 10+ than the Cowboys (2). They are: Buffalo (1), Chicago (1), and Philadelphia with 0! So, there are a few teams worse, but the point is there are 28 teams better. New York is 6-15 on 3rd and 10+ so why are the Cowboys 2 for 21?

This is altogether discouraging, but last week we saw that the Cowboys were positively dynamite in other situations like “22″ personnel:

They are running 67% out of this look. The defense knows it. And yet they are getting steamrolled. And, to me, that is where Witten/Bennett are dominating linebackers at the point of attack. To show run, and to still get 8.44 yards per carry is something that the coaches realize, and the rest of the NFL does, too. In 2008, the Cowboys ran this look 5.75 times per game, now they are running it over 10 times.

So, is it time to realize what they do well? Power Run and Short Pass. And what they don’t do well? Convert on long passing situations. And does that explain why they are starting to run more and more on 1st and 10? I would hope so.

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And since we are looking at what the Cowboys do poorly, check this out.

2) Goal to Go. Horrible. Atlanta comes to Dallas with a Goal to Go record to be proud of. Only the Vikings have matched the Falcons record of 11 GtG Touchdowns this season. Ask any personnel man why this is, and they will show you Tony Gonzalez and a solid running game. And then they will tell you how much Brett Favre loves using his Tight End in the red zone and the Vikings running game, too.

Wait! Don’t the Cowboys have a great TE? And a great running game? What is going on here? If the Falcons are 11-12 in TDs after getting a GtG situation, and the Vikings are 11-13, then why are the Cowboys 6-13, and 26th in the NFL?

If there is any issue that needs to be cured quickly, this is the one that I hope they concentrated on during the bye week. You must come away with points when you get the chance in the NFL.

Look at 2nd and 3rd Down and Goal to Go:

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As a quick note of reference, it helps to know where you were inside the 10 on these plays. On 2nd and Goal, the average yard line was the 4, and on 3rd and Goal, the average yard line was 3 1/2. Think about that for a second.

Now, consider this: The Cowboys are 1-12 on passes in this situation? 1 for 12? Could you, complete 1 for 12 if given the QB spot in your dreams? This is flat out dreadful. If this improves, the Cowboys can compete in the playoffs. If it doesn’t, Jason Garrett should be fired and Tony Romo should be doubted severely.

And you want the most frustrating result of this 1-12 stat on passes on 2nd or 3rd and Goal? The one success was the one and only time Jason Witten was targeted. The other 11 passes were to people not named Witten, and the failure rate was 100%.

Here is a good chance to remind us where the Cowboys are going with the ball on 3rd down this season:

3rd Down Targets – Season Totals

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82. 82. 82. 82. 82. 82.

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Turnover numbers for Week 6:

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Season Turnover rate Records:

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100 Yard Rushers for Week 6:

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300 Yard Passers for Week 6:

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TC’s DRIVE OF THE WEEK:

(Each week, my trusty intern, TC Fleming breaks down a Cowboys drive that was important to the outcome of the game and trys to deconstruct it with all of his might. – This week, he provides an evolution to his project that has me all excited. Let’s check it out.)

When Bob first talked to me about doing something on Wednesdays, it had very little in the way of structure or format. I could just write whatever I wanted to about football. For the past three weeks, I have chosen to write about the Cowboys and about the plays on their key drives. With the Cowboys off this week, I’m going to use the break as a nice launching point for broadening the focus from just the Cowboys to the NFL in general. The point is still to be able to understand the Cowboys and what they’re doing on offense, but in order to better do that, it’s nice to have some perspective on what other NFL teams are doing. I feel like I’m starting to get a rough idea of Garrett’s offensive goals and tools and such, but honestly, I don’t know if they’re Garrett’s or they’re the tools and goals and such of every offensive coordinator in the NFL. In order to better understand Garrett, I think it would be helpful to understand Average NFL OC. To do that, I’m going to look sometimes at the key drives in other games, while still mixing in plenty of Cowboys.

For this week, I settled on a key drive in the game that most interested me this week: the Saints and the Giants. In the Saints’ second drive, they took the ball at their own 20 after a touchback holding a 7-0 lead. Six plays later—all passes—they led 14-0, taking a promising start and turning it into a clear edge.

On the first play, the Saints line up in a running set with clear running personnel. As Troy Aikman pointed out on the broadcast, the Saints even go so far as to put a lineman, Zach Streif, in at tight end. Brees play actions to Pierre Thomas. Devery Henderson is on the left and runs a ‘Go,’ while Lance Moore runs upfield before heading across the formation from the right to the left. After taking the fake, Thomas runs into the flat. Thomas pulls the weakside linebacker into that flat along with him. Henderson and his considerable speed takes both the corner and safety to his side with him.  So Moore’s job is to run to the area vacated by Henderson and get open from any defenders by the time he gets there. The secondary appears to be playing Cover-3 because the corner drops back pretty far and makes little effort to chase Moore as he begins crossing the field. Meanwhile, safety CC Brown comes up towards Moore. However, Brown doesn’t get particularly close and is certainly too far off him to contest the catch. As will become a theme, Brown seems far more interested in limiting major damage rather than preventing any damage at all. The middle linebacker also has a little bit to say about the coverage of Moore if he can get underneath the receiver, but he is tricked for a second by the play action and is running pretty hard to get back. In doing so, he falls down. The bottom line is that Henderson is clearing out an open area on the field, and Moore has ample room and time to get open before he reaches that vacated space. The only catch is that it’s a fairly slow-developing play, since Moore has to run across the field. That’s where Strief comes in. Not only is he selling the play fake by being part of what should be a pretty obvious running package, he also is a huge boon to the pass protection, giving Brees plenty of time to wait for Moore to open up. Usually when a team brings in an offensive lineman, it tips their plans to a certain extent. By using his blocking talents to execute a slow-developing pass, the Saints are removing the idea that bringing in an extra lineman means they are going to run. Though they didn’t take advantage of it in this drive, it sets them up to be able to run from this formation without the defense being sure that the play is a run before the snap.

In the next play, the Saints keep the same personnel (2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FB, 1 HB), though Shockey is in for Strief. They deploy this personnel in more of a three-wide set, though. Shockey is wide by himself to the left while Colston and Henderson form a stack close in to the line on the right with Henderson standing directly behind Colston. Colston runs a ‘Go’ (or at least he appears to, he is not on the screen for very long), while Henderson runs behind him, drifting a little to the right before stopping altogether and turning back towards Brees. The safety and corner are both out of the picture by this point, so I can’t tell exactly what they’re doing. I can, however, tell you that they are not particularly close to Henderson. Brees, however, has been more interested in the other side of the play. Shockey is just running a ‘Go’ himself. The weakside linebacker initially helps in coverage of Shockey, but the fullback releases into the flat, and the linebacker stays shallow with him, so once Shockey is downfield enough, he is one-on-one with a cornerback. Against a lot of coverages, there would come a point where Shockey would be deep enough to draw the interest of the safety. However, the safety is nowhere to be found on this play. I’m serious: he never shows up in the shot. He’s probably playing so deep that he never comes onscreen. This reminds me of the Giants’ coverage of the Cowboys when they thought the Cowboys were thinking about a shot deep. Remember that long interception in Sam Hurd’s direction? The Giants seem pretty content playing a safety so deep that he is only useful in a) defending extremely deep passes and b) cleaning up plays if someone else misses a tackle. This seems a really confounding strategy to me, as a defender should be in position to have far more uses than those two. It shows up on this play, where the cornerback has to defend Shockey by himself. The corner has pretty good coverage inside of Shockey, as good as you could want. But Brees puts it on Shockey’s outside shoulder, and Shockey makes the catch.

Brees also has to throw the ball over the linebacker that hasn’t dropped. That linebacker is still shallow enough to make the throw, but if it’s a bullet to Shockey, the linebacker probably bats it down around the line. There really isn’t a way to defend a quarterback that accurate with just one man. The corner cannot have good coverage both inside and outside of the receiver. He has to pick a side, and Brees will deliver a pass in the perfect spot on the other side. Bob has referenced a video before (found here) where one of those sports science shows demonstrates that Brees is considerably more accurate with his arm than Olympic archers are with their bows on the same target from the same distance. If you’re looking for why a 6’1” quarterback can throw for 5,000+ yards, there’s a good spot to start.

On the third play, Strief comes back in at tight end, though Shockey stays in, again split out wide. This time it’s to the right. There’s a fullback and halfback, along with Colston split not far off the line to the left. The play bears a number of similarities to the first play of the drive. The receivers switch sides, with Shockey running the ‘Go’ to the right and Colston running across the formation from the left, but that’s what their routes are, and it’s a play action pass with an extra lineman. Another difference is that Brees runs a full bootleg to his right rather than just faking to the back and setting up like normal as he did in the first play. Though the Saints have not run yet on this drive, the Giants’ linebackers bite hard on the play action. The weakside and middle linebackers play run for their first three full steps. I believe the strongside linebacker is responsible for covering Strief, and when that linebacker verifies that Strief is definitely going to block, he comes after Brees. This is one of two blitzes on this drive. The linebackers are effectively out of the play. The cornerback plays to keep Colston in front of him, so there’s no one between him and Brees. Brees isn’t waiting for Colston to get all the way across the field this time, he has him open much sooner. Further, Shockey isn’t really made to clear out space like Henderson. He doesn’t have the speed to get downfield and open up the sort of room Henderson can. But with the linebackers biting as they do, it doesn’t matter. One does kind of wonder how this play would look if the linebackers played more disciplined. If the linebackers force Colston to go all the way across the field by not opening up the passing lanes they did when they bit on the fake, Colston would end up on Shockey’s side. Shockey, however, is slow enough that he would be at a pretty similar depth to Colston. So the Saints would have their only two downfield targets standing next to each other, each of them potentially double-covered. I guess then they would just check down or something, but it’s all moot because of those linebackers. Just to go back to it for a second, it is kind of astounding that the Giants linebackers would be so keyed to defend the run when the Saints hadn’t shown run yet, but maybe that’s why they were keyed to play the run: the linebackers figure the Saints have to run some time.  But now twice they’ve fallen for the extra lineman, so either they will keep falling for it and continue to give up easy 11-yard completions, or they will play the pass with six offensive lineman on the field and get gashed by a big running play. I mean, they could guess right one of these times and stop the play, but I’ll tell you right now: the Giants do not guess right at any point on this drive.

Next, the Saints take the fullback off the field for the first time, bringing in another tight end, noted former Longhorn and man with two first names, David Thomas. Both tight ends act more as receivers, standing up before the snap. The formation is close in, with each tight end just a few feet off the line and the outside receivers just outside of the tight ends. The pair to the right (Shockey and Robert Meachem) both run half-speed to the sideline, looking back in anticipation of a pass. Henderson does the same thing on his side, but Thomas runs up, engages the middle linebacker a bit, then breaks at a harder angle to the sideline. There are many things I do not yet know about football, and the value of this move falls into that category. I also do not know why the corner plays as far off as he does.

This was the Broncos’ reaction as well when the Cowboys went to a similar formation, so defenses must think this is a good enough idea. So the corner is playing off, and he drops even deeper at the snap, enough so that he isn’t really a factor in covering Henderson. That leaves the weakside linebacker defending Henderson. Not only is Henderson much faster than the linebacker, he has a head start. Henderson is very open and makes the catch easily, but the linebacker plays a good angle and forces Henderson out of bounds after minimal yards after catch, which is pretty key on a quick pass like this. Now, the play was probably a quick pass because this is the second instance of blitzing. New York blitzes one safety, while the other is again lined up so deep that the television viewer cannot see him for the whole of the play. I continue to think that this is essentially insisting on playing 10-on-11. Also, watching the way the Saints make the Giants pay for their decision to play a safety so deep with these intermediate throws (this particular throw is not intermediate obviously, but the others are) makes it all the more frustrating to know that Romo saw this coverage and still decided to force the ball deep.

What follows is my weekly nominee for “Best Play I Have Ever Seen.” In fact, this play is so awesome that Chris Brown of Smart Football has already explained the general ideas behind it in a much more full manner than I can. I really suggest reading what he has to say about the different ways the Saints execute this play. This particular version of the play, however, has a wrinkle that Brown does not cover. Facing the only second down they would encounter on the drive, the Saints break the huddle with Thomas, Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, and Reggie Bush. This suggests a three-wide set, so the Giants do add their nickel corner. That does not turn out to be enough, as the Saints line up with all five men as receivers at or near the line of scrimmage. Moore and Henderson take the outside receiver spots, while Bush is in the left slot. Thomas and Colston are both in the right slot, but they mix it up a bit by lining Colston up close in to the offensive line with Thomas farther out. That is the nifty wrinkle. The Giants put corners on the outside receivers, and then put the nickel back over Thomas, leaving the two most inside receivers to the linebackers. That means Marques Colston is matched up on Antonio Pierce.

That is a very nice matchup, as Colston is considerably faster and considerably taller. Reggie Bush runs a little square-in at the first-down marker. Brown’s diagrams suggest this is an option route. The other four receivers run ‘Go’ routes, just heading straight down the field. The Giants again have a safety so deep he is out of the picture, but Brees uses his eyes to move him over and create a space where Colston has gotten comfortably behind Pierce but is too far into the middle of the field for the safety to reach, since he followed Brees’ eyes to the sideline.  Brees puts the ball over Pierce’s head, Colston goes up to get it, absorbs a hit from the safety to hold onto the 40-yard gain.

With four receivers running downfield and the Giants only having two safeties, two of the receivers are going to be single-covered down the field in a best-case scenario. As with any play from 5-wide, pass protection is a concern, but the Gaints make no attempt to press the receivers, and when an NFL receiver is sprinting downfield, it doesn’t take that long. Colston gained 40 yards, and was just running in a straight line, so you would figure that took about as long as his combine 40 time of 4.55. That’s a little long (but only a little) for a play with only five pass protectors, but Drew Brees is regarded as one of the premier quarterbacks in regards to moving in the pocket and using a few steps to avoid pressure. He does that expertly here.

At first Colston was ruled to have scored on the play, but a Giants’ challenge ends with the ball being placed on the one-yard line. The Saints up the ante of their extra lineman bit, deploying a full seven offensive lineman. In additon, they have Shockey on the line, with the fullback Heath Evans and halfback Pierre Thomas in the backfield. Brees play-actions to Thomas. The play is almost done there, with a rusher coming free, but Thomas does well to lay a nice, effective, cut block right after the fake. It was a little thing that saved the play. Evans started out to the right as if to block for the run and after the fake continued to run along the line of scrimmage in a pass route. This kept two of the linebackers close to the line of scrimmage. The Saints wanted this because at the snap Shockey had immediately run a corner route. The Giants were so keyed on the run (which makes sense, what with the situation and the two extra linemen), that by the time they saw it wasn’t a run, Shockey was already well into his pattern. One of the linebackers remains aware of Shockey, though even his first step is to defend the run. As was the case for Colston, Shockey is faster and taller than the one linebacker chasing him. Again Brees puts the ball up for Shockey to use his height and separation to make a pretty easy catch.

The Saints had some very well-designed plays on this drive that made defenders confused as to what would come next (this is evident when you have players biting on the play action on a drive where you do not run the ball once). The Saints also have such a wide range of players they obviously feel comfortable with incorporating into their offense. This series of six plays featured seven different offensive lineman, two different tight ends, two different running backs, and four different receivers. All on the one series. That certainly adds to the unpredictable nature of what they’re doing, especially when none of these players tip the Saints’ hand as to what they want to do on the play. All that said, I think the Giants put on a clinic for how not to defend this offense. The Giants decided to rush four and drop the rest into coverage. Then the Saints, either through a clever play design or just by having more dynamic weapons than the Giants had competent defenders (sidenote: CC Brown is not a competent defender), would have something come open, especially given the time afforded by rushing four against Drew Brees. And consider this: the Saints have proven to be pretty deep at receiver, especially when you account for Shockey as well. By contrast, they were starting their backup left tackle and have an offensive line that, while quite functional, is largely made up of late-round picks and other teams’ cast-offs. If I were going to challenge one of those groups, it would be the offensive line. This seems like a clear choice to me. I would blitz them often, especially going after that left tackle. Is Brees good enough to quickly identify the blitz, maneuver in the pocket, deliver an accurate pass to his hot route? Yeah, probably. But at some point, you want to make sure he can do all that rather than just give him time and wait for him to pick you apart. After all, the only time the Giants sent a designed blitz, it resulted in the only play on this drive where the Saints did not gain a first down or a touchdown. This idea, that the Giants should have blitzed more, is certainly something that was suggested by the film, but I have no qualms with telling you that I was also nudged in that direction by the gentlemen at Football Ousiders. If you scroll down on this article, you can read a couple of their thoughts on this game.

Another one of their thoughts perked my interest, that the Saints were running based on when the defense dictated it. That’s a Mike Leach thing. Texas Tech almost never has a run called in the huddle, they only switch to it after looking at the defense. So how much teams fear the pass dictates how often Tech will run it. If this is how the Saints call their plays, it makes sense that they have called more runs than passes this season (Aikman indicated they had during the broadcast). Any smart defense would line up to stop the Saints’ passing game more often than not. This is something I would like to know more about (Is this in fact how they are calling plays? How committed one way or the other does the defense have to be in order to change the play? How long has Payton been doing things this way?)

As far as the implications for the Cowboys, I drew a couple conclusions. First, it confirmed a position I have long held concerning an argument I hear against Jason Garrett. There are those who say that Garrett tries to get too cute with isolating players on certain defenders and being focused in so much on matchups, that he should instead just run his plays and expect his players to win their battles. It is my contention that all the best offenses put their players in a position to succeed by using formations and such to create favorable match-ups. I felt pretty confident about that, but I’d never devoted this much time to studying an elite offense before. I can now say with confidence that this is indeed the case: making good matchups is so key, like in the long pass to Colston. If Garrett can do that well, it’s a real asset.

It also appeared the Saints were switching out personnel at a rate similar to the Cowboys, though they all kept it around the fullback and halfback in the I for the first five plays. The exotic formations that they did use (the snug 4-wide formation, the five-wides) are things we have seen before the Cowboys. Payton and Garrett never, to my knowledge, worked together. Payton left to coach the Saints two years before Garrett arrived in Dallas. I would be interested to find out, though, how much Garrett was influenced by whatever remnants of the people who worked with Payton (I guess Tony Sparano seems like the most obvious example). In following the always-popular 12 package, the Saints employed it the once, on the fourth play but did not use either tight end in the traditional sense. I think that’s a pretty neat advantage that I am not sure if Bob has mentioned: when you break the huddle with two wide receivers and two tight ends, there’s a lot of places you can go with where you’re going to line them up.

Bonus Coverage: Jeremy Shockey pretending to ride a horse

In the final analysis, 10 pitchers started games for the Rangers this season. Kevin Millwood (31), Scott Feldman (31), Derek Holland (21), Tommy Hunter (19), Vicente Padilla (18), Brandon McCarthy (17), Matt Harrison (11), Dustin Nippert (10), Kris Benson (2), and Doug Mathis (2). This study will focus on the eight pitchers who have made at least 10 starts.

There is plenty of good news to report as they worked a significantly higher amount of innings while doing a great job at dropping the rotation’s ERA.

Both Kevin Millwood and Scott Feldman made over 30 starts with 18 Quality Starts each. That number may not blow your socks off, but those two seasons can rival pretty much any season we have seen around here by a starting pitcher in an awfully long time.

There were other signs of optimism as well, as the first year of the Nolan Ryan/Mike Maddux program seems like a perfect diving board to 2010.

Just so we are all up to speed with the different stats, IPS is Innings Per Start and PPS is Pitches Per Start. Everything else will be metrics that I am sure you are familiar with.

Before you start, we need to establish league averages for the stats so you understand what consitutes “league average”. So, here you go – These are the final American League Season Averages for the 2009 AL Season:

ERA – AL Average is 4.45
AVG – AL Average is .266
OBP – AL Average is .334
SLG – AL Average is .425
K/9 – AL Average is 6.86
BB/9 – AL Average is 3.39
HR/9 – AL Average is 1.11
WHIP – AL Average is 1.40

Below we will take apart each player and can examine how he fits against the league average:

Kevin Millwood Splits

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Kevin Millwood had a very solid season by his standards, but most of his best work was done before July 1 and after September 1. He was 12 out of 16 for quality starts to start the year, and then went 6-15 the rest of the way in that all-important department. With nearly 200 innings, it is fair to ask if he pitched himself out as the season went on, and perhaps wasn’t in condition to remain at the pace he set in May and June.

But, his final numbers were mostly all better than league average. His ERA was amazing by Rangers’ standards and although he was not the most impressive pitcher on the staff down the stretch, he surely provided a bit of that anchor for the rest of the rotation for much of the year.

You could do better than Kevin Millwood, but you could also do much worse.

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Scott Feldman Splits

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Feldman’s numbers are only as a Starter

The amazing success story of 2009, Scott Feldman almost matched Kevin Millwood in ERA before he hit the wall in September. His batting metrics of .245/.314/.359 blew away the league averages. He doesn’t allow base-runners, so he doesn’t get in trouble.

He also raised his often-discussed K Rate to a reasonable 5.26 per 9, so there is hope that he doesn’t apply to the Bill James anomoly rules.

17 wins were phenomenal, trailing only CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, and Felix Hernandez. Those 3 each achieved 19, but they also had 3 more starts to get there. He appears to understand the fine art of pitching, which we have seen is not always something that can be learned.

Unlike last April, he is a lock for the rotation in 2010.

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Vicente Padilla Splits

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Certainly capable of knocking your socks off in a start (NLCS Game 2), Padilla was the ultimate “Dow-Joneser” as Dick Vitale would love to say. Padilla allowed too many hits, too many runners, and his ERA and K Rate were lower than they have been.

He was the opposite of what they needed in a veteran, highly-compensated pitcher: he was undependable. As long as you never counted on anything from Padilla, he was fine. But the second you really needed him to pull through in a tough spot, he seemed to let you down. At that pay rate, and at that performance level, he was not worth the trouble.

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Derek Holland As A Starter

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It is early in the Derek Holland story. He looked the part a few times this year, but for the most part, at 4 for 21 with quality starts, it was not good enough to cement his spot. He is a development project, and the Rangers will continue to hand him the ball every 5 days, but 20 more starts from now, this will not do. His ERA kept rising, his metrics were all poor (aside from K/Rate) and his worst numbers were Slugging Pct and HR Rate. Very bad combination.

Basically, when hitters make contact against Derek Holland, it generally either hits seats or off the wall it would seem. 2009 may go into the Holland book as a full learning experience, so let’s hope that we see more of what we saw that dynamite night of the trade deadline.

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Tommy Hunter Splits

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Tommy makes it difficult to give Derek Holland a complete pass. Hunter is also extremely young. Hunter should have also been experiencing his growing pains, but instead he was outstanding until September. From July to August, he worked over 60 innings in 10 starts and opposing hitters barely hit over .200 against him. He actually strikes out fewer than Feldman, but like Feldman, he doesn’t allow hitters to put up the league average.

Hunter has a spot waiting for him in April, and like Feldman, I will feel pretty strong about the Tommy Hunter spot.

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Brandon McCarthy Splits

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Hmmm. This is interesting. It is easy to consider McCarthy a disappointment, and because he cannot stay healthy that is not incorrect. But, when he did pitch this year (17 starts) he does have a story to tell. In September, he took the ball 6 times and opponents hit just .234/.295/.344 against him. That is a solid line. He strikes out over 6 per 9, which is 2nd only to Holland (3rd if you include Nippert). He appears to be improving, but I think patience is running out on the health issues. 2010 is likely his last year of leash on that front.

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Dustin Nippert Splits

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Not sure what to make of Nippert. He went back and forth so often and these are just his numbers as a starter. He would seem to lack the ability to go deep in games, and his numbers are all right around league average except for his K/Rate. I agree with those who suggest he is an ideal swing man on a staff.

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Matt Harrison Splits

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Like McCarthy, the question is whether can he be depended upon. But, unlike McCarthy, his upside seems rather pedestrian based on his performance. In fact, that is kind. ERA over 6, under 5 K’s per 9, and the league slugs .500 against him. At this point, he is a guy.

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Starting Rotation Totals

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In the end, 68 QS out of 162 is not nearly the number we projected early. Only 2 AL teams (Oak, Balt) had fewer quality starts than the Rangers (CHI led with 86). But, with 949.2 innings, the Rangers pitched more innings than the rotations of the Yankees, Twins, A’s, Royals, Indians, and Orioles. This may not be the most impressive list, but there were years where there was no list at all. The Rangers traditionally get very few innings from their rotation in the new park era, and to get 80 more than last year supports the “1-more-out” directives.

They ranked 12th in strikeouts, with 598 strikeouts as starters, only the Orioles and Indians had fewer strikeouts. Teams like Boston and New York had almost 200 more strikeouts, so you can easily see how that places less stress on your defense and keeps runners from being moved along with contact.

Improvements were made, and because of the age of most of the rotation and the troops behind this group, the odds are reasonable that this franchise-long trend is turning in the right direction. Plenty of room for improvement, but as you learned while watching this team, pitching was not near the reason for failure that we have become accustomed to around here.

Perhaps 2010 will be even better.

Thoughts?

Was the game crisp? Far from it. Was it well-played? Depends if you like your offense or your defense. But, clearly, this was a game that was both chippy and tense. Frustrating and Electric. I think that I would not want to see it every Saturday, but if the last year’s Texas win was a masterpiece from both QBs, then this year’s Texas win was just the opposite. In both cases, a worthy 4 hours of your time.

In many ways, the game went from a “Dream Match-up” to an eventuality in one big play early, as an Aaron Williams blitz knocked Sam Bradford on his throwing shoulder again and out of the game. The common details of the play with the same scenario 6 weeks ago are hard to avoid, and regardless of who you root for, I hope you see how college sports in general loses when a kid gambles on himself and his school rather than the fruits of the pros and loses big. I cannot guarantee how much money Sam Bradford lost yesterday, but know that being injured once is not a big deal, but to be injured twice in 3 starts has NFL executives wondering if that shoulder will hold up at the next level for 12 years. A quick glance at the pay rate for the 1st round picks demonstrate that Matt Stafford was guaranteed $41m for #1, Mark Sanchez got $28m for #5, and Josh Freeman, the next QB off the board at #17 was promised $10.25m.He will still be a very rich man, but this weekend might have cost him at least half of his enormous pile of money.

And in many ways, that means all college fans lose. If Tim Duncan, Sam Bradford, Peyton Manning, and friends hang around in college and it works out, more will do it. If it doesn’t work out, then future studs will see the error in their ways. Sam Bradford may or may not be a future cautionary tale – time will tell, but Matthew Stafford and Bob Stoops are very, very rich men this morning. Sam Bradford is not. Yet.

So, after the injury, the theme of the game turned dramatically. Then it switched to “could Texas screw this up?” and could that valiant Oklahoma defense score on their own, because it was hard to imagine the Oklahoma offense scoring enough to win.

But, that is why we play the games. Oklahoma still outgained Texas, 311-269 (although that lead evaporates if you simply subtract the Bradford to Murray 64 yard pass on the game’s first drive). After Bradford left, the Oklahoma offense averaged 3.7 yards per play, and the Texas offense countered with just 3.5 with Colt McCoy.

Josh Sent me this email to sum up the game in general:

OU throws out…

2nd String QB
5 Turnovers
125 yards on penalties
-18 rushing yards
1 missed field goal

And…

Texas still can’t cover the spread. Texas is 1 & 6 vs the spread over it’s last 7 games.

He is right. Texas did not “beat the spread”, but I highly doubt that too many Longhorns care about that. A win in this series is extremely difficult to get, so I am pretty sure Mack Brown will take his 4th in 5 over his rival.

In 2004, it was pointed out that every single player on the Texas team had never tasted victory over their 4-5 years in the program. Well, the class that leaves Austin in 2010 will only have been beaten once by Mighty Oklahoma in the subsequent 5 years.

In Cowboys-game-style, let’s throw out some random notes and observations about the big Saturday for Texas-Oklahoma in Fair Park:

* I am trying to remember the last time that Oklahoma had to play this game without either an exceptional Running Back and an exceptional QB. For years, we have been spoiled with the extreme quality at the important positions for the Sooners. The 2005 game had a very gimpy Adrian Peterson and a very young Rhett Bomar, but this was Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray looking ordinary, and Landry Jones proving how good Sam Bradford is. In fact, neither team had a “Wow” RB, and how far back to we have to go to say that?

* According to Mel Kiper, these two schools have 6 players in the top 25 for next April’s draft. Sam Bradford is projected at #1, Gerald McCoy at #4, Colt McCoy #8, Jermaine Gresham #17, Sergio Kindle #21, and Trent Williams at #25. Bradford barely played, and Gresham, of course, is out all year. Otherwise, McCoy was not great with several turnovers including 2 in the Red Zone, Kindle was pretty quiet, and Trent Williams had a tough time on the edge with Eddie Jones on a key sack late in the 3rd Quarter. That leaves Gerald McCoy. If I am a team on Sunday, he is just the type of disruptive force that demands a double team that I want to get my hands on. I am very impressed with McCoy. I am trying to figure out if I like him more than I like Tommie Harris several years ago, but I think he can be in the same league.

* How good is Texas this year? I have a hard time saying they resemble the team that I thought last year was good enough to have won the National Title. Quan Cosby is gone. Brian Orakpo is gone. Several other parts, too. But, does it matter? If last year the chips didn’t fall right, you could make the case that this year they are being given a make-good. They still have plenty of work to do, but Tech and Oklahoma both appear to be a bit out of the picture, and while there are several interesting road tests left (At Missouri, Oklahoma State, Aggieland) it appears to be quite doable. This year, despite not impressing the masses, the fact is that they appear to be on the expressway to a National Title Game in January. It truly demonstrates the fact that in College Football, the season is the playoff. Win and advance. Style points and being ahead at halftime doesn’t really matter.

* For Texas early, the offense was absolutely silly. I know Oklahoma is good, but 1 yard per play? Much of that is inexcusable. What kept Texas hanging around early had to have been the key Texas stops. On 3 of the first 4 Oklahoma drives, the Sooners drove it in to the Texas end, only to be stopped on 3rd down. This led to two Field Goals and a third one that missed. What could have been 14-0 or 17-0 was only 6-0. I think in all of the excitement, people forget that the Texas defense had to make some plays to keep the game where it was while Colt and the offense tried to deal with the Sooners. If Texas could have kept from committing Pass Interference Penalties on 3rd and Long, it would have been much better.

* It sure seems odd to imagine this, but you have to think the last 5 years has put Bob Stoops on slightly unsteady footing. It is based on the “high bar” theory, but between his BCS Bowls and His Red River Rivalries, I am guessing that the message boards are starting to wonder if he really walks on water anymore.

* James Kirkendoll needs to run some stairs after that Head Butt Personal Foul.

* I don’t think Brent Musburger gets as “down home” as he used to, but two things jumped out at me as somewhat annoying from the announcing icon. First, not every play is “Dialed Up”. Sometimes, someone may dial up a blitz, but not every play is “dialed up”. I don’t think he described any play as simply being “called”. They were all dialed up. Second, since the college game is completely made up of young men between 18-22, we get that they are “youngsters”. Until a 42 year old plays in college, you can back off on every player – whether a freshman or a 5th year senior – is a “youngster”. Just two things that stuck out. Otherwise, talk corny dogs all you want.

* I think we are all better off with replays. I don’t want to get in a huge debate about each call, nor am I thrilled that an 11am game lasts past 3pm, but you have replay to get the calls right. I think the McCoy fumble was right on, as was the muffed punt. The game is too fast not to have replay.

* I think Keenan Clayton is a heck of a LB. I think he could have become a legend yesterday if he would have held onto one of those certain Pick-6s that Colt threw him yesterday.

* One thing that annoys me about Texas Football? The chaos with their numbers is just out of control. I understand that college programs have a lot more players to account for, but for years, they always have a pair of “8″s or a pair of “11″s on the 2-deep. That is just silly. Only 44 names appear on a 2-deep, so having Jordan Shipley and Chykie Brown in #8 is not necessary. But, clearly, it has never bothered anyone else to change it, because this has gone on forever. I know other colleges do it, too. But, Texas seems to do it the most.

* This is how far the Big 12 has morphed: A Street-Fight Rivalry game with carnage all over the field and it seems like every one is ashamed of it. Don’t tell me that you have all forgotten about 3 yards and a cloud of dust! Don’t tell me that we have gone so far with this 5-wide no huddle that a good old fashioned 16-13 steel cage match is foreign? You know, when Florida and LSU does this it is charming. I know it was not full of offensive dream plays, but it wasn’t that bad of a game. 45-35 is not that great to some of us. We like collisions and tackles and the occasional player who cannot pop right back up.

There is plenty of work Texas needs to do to get their offense up to standard.  But, they got the all-important win.  For them, the season continues.  For Oklahoma, at 3-3, they can still achieve many things, but the high hopes of August have certainly taken a major turn south after two straight trips to the Metroplex have not only ended in defeat, but also with serious questions about the future of their QB. 

Does Sam Bradford play again in Crimson and Cream?  I doubt it.  If I am Sam, I get ready for the combine.   I have tried to fight the good fight in college football this year, but it is getting expensive.